I may have an explanation for the whale buys of yesterday: in a normal bear market the $ funds would have been declining sharply.
This is not the case, at least not yet. That's why the genuine rally succeeded 3 days ago, and some smart whales decides to take
a gamble, buying now and hoping ( calculating? ) that the market will rise to 150$ or above. On the 31st of August after the whale buys
there was a rally that drove the price up to 148, and such a rally ( by panic buyers ) is still possible today 12th September.
Topic: . - page 6. (Read 35852 times)
Yes great oracle. Some whale with millions to invest is using your predictions. LOLZ
Oh, THAT's what you are laughing about.
I thought you were laughing at me.
I wouldn't make fun of you. You are sharing your methodology to provide another perspective of how to interpret Bitcoin fluctuations. Its been a good read and I have been following for some time now. I personally use strictly charts to provide my predictions and appreciate getting another take of the whale psychology.
Is it a possibility that the price will fluctuate between say 110$ and 150$, instead of following the natural course of a bear market?
The reason I'm asking is because today the long term parabolic SAR flipped sides again, now showing an upward trend.
My recognition of the EW says that we should experience a large drop no later than 2-3 days from now ( 13-14 September ), and then
enter a fake bull market. If this does not happen ( and right now it seems very unlikely ), then I think EW will be useless for long term predictions.
The reason I'm asking is because today the long term parabolic SAR flipped sides again, now showing an upward trend.
My recognition of the EW says that we should experience a large drop no later than 2-3 days from now ( 13-14 September ), and then
enter a fake bull market. If this does not happen ( and right now it seems very unlikely ), then I think EW will be useless for long term predictions.
Similar thoughts there, weekend could be dumping. Expecting $115 +- $2.
Is it a possibility that the price will fluctuate between say 110$ and 150$, instead of following the natural course of a bear market?
The reason I'm asking is because today the long term parabolic SAR flipped sides again, now showing an upward trend.
My recognition of the EW says that we should experience a large drop no later than 2-3 days from now ( 13-14 September ), and then
enter a fake bull market. If this does not happen ( and right now it seems very unlikely ), then I think EW will be useless for long term predictions.
The reason I'm asking is because today the long term parabolic SAR flipped sides again, now showing an upward trend.
My recognition of the EW says that we should experience a large drop no later than 2-3 days from now ( 13-14 September ), and then
enter a fake bull market. If this does not happen ( and right now it seems very unlikely ), then I think EW will be useless for long term predictions.
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
Not everyone is a math genius like yourself, so please forgive me oh Lord of the Numbers for utilizing the median as the literal center point of 2 numbers rather than the midpoint in a range data plots.
I was taught the difference between mean, median, and mode in the 3rd grade. Forgive me for assuming you got a similar education.
In an effort not to throw this entire thread off topic with mere slander back and forth, I choose to withhold my response.
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction.Okay, you have a list of numbers. You put them in order. Median is the number middle (or average of the two middle numbers if there is an even count). You can't say anything about the max given the minimum and median other than max >= median.
Those are just the outliers of the random sample I posted, a larger sampling would produce outliers even farther out.
The thing that is really hard to know though is how well the probability of those outliers occurring matches with the probability of predicting them—the future is tricksy like that.
Good to know. The future is indeed tricksy.
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
Not everyone is a math genius like yourself, so please forgive me oh Lord of the Numbers for utilizing the median as the literal center point of 2 numbers rather than the midpoint in a range data plots.
I was taught the difference between mean, median, and mode in the 3rd grade. Forgive me for assuming you received a similar education.
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction.Okay, you have a list of numbers. You put them in order. Median is the number middle (or average of the two middle numbers if there is an even count). You can't say anything about the max given the minimum and median other than max >= median.
thanks got it.
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
Not everyone is a math genius like yourself, so please forgive me oh Lord of the Numbers for utilizing the median as the literal center point of 2 numbers rather than the midpoint in a range data plots.
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction.Okay, you have a list of numbers. You put them in order. Median is the number middle (or average of the two middle numbers if there is an even count). You can't say anything about the max given the minimum and median other than max >= median.
... slightly more precise that saying we are going to "zero"—or "to da moon!!1!"
thanks,
It is here were I cracked and LOL. .
On a separate note I found the principals for "welth" growth interesting from a VC's perspective.
http://gigaom.com/2013/09/10/as-bitcoin-hype-settles-down-real-possibilities-start-to-emerge/
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction. I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.
Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.
I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.
Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.
I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.
Code:
$75.20 median Wednesday, October 23, 2013
This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0
I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.The way I interpreted it - we're going down, the lowest point being
Code:
$52.64 Wednesday, October 09, 2013
If $75.20 is the median, it puts the max at $97.76. The range for October 9th is $52.64 - $97.76
All the dates are in October/November/December... nothing for this month, which leaves me confused as well.
Max was $103.03. I don't think you know how medians work.
I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.
Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.
I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.
Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.
I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.
Code:
$75.20 median Wednesday, October 23, 2013
This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0
I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.The way I interpreted it - we're going down, the lowest point being
Code:
$52.64 Wednesday, October 09, 2013
If $75.20 is the median, it puts the max at $97.76. The range for October 9th is $52.64 - $97.76
All the dates are in October/November/December... nothing for this month, which leaves me confused as well.
Jump to: