Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 26. (Read 26030 times)

Suggest you read this post in its entirety. OP is not the typical conjecture bullshit you find around here. He has been right a lot more than he has been wrong.

Honestly, I have enough of these topics when someone is claiming that the cryptocurrency is gonna crash.
And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.

The guy is talking about 2013-2014 market patterns.
Or... are you suggesting the Jan 2014 -Jan 2015 Bitcoin market was a bull market..?

A new market, a bear market, began on 17-DEC-2017.
And so therefore, any patterns prior to that date are only applicable to the bull market, and not the current bear market.

Do you consider, that historic patterns too, have some play here?
Btw. calling the same target - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6GuxadAx-Manipulated-Dump/

—From 06-JAN-2018 to 06-FEB-2018 (exactly 1 month), Bitcoin dropped from 17174 to 6000 (Bitfinex) at a loss of 65%.
—This 1 month decline is being considered and labelled as Primary-a wave.
—The analysis suggests that this Primary-a wave is now over at 6000, and a Primary-b bounce to around 9865 on average is now underway.
—Once the Primary-b wave bounce is over, the market would be expected to decline to new lows, which would be labelled as a Primary-c decline.
—The completed Primary-a-b-c structure would be part of an overall completed Cycle-c wave.

Of course, that's the guesswork and speculation; we'll have to see how the market plays! Indicative of structure, not time...

Since bouncing from exactly 6000 (Bitfinex), the market has staged a 30% rally from the lows.
This is thus far the largest rally since the downtrend sell-off leg that started on 20-JAN-2018.

There were two bounces within the downtrend that began on 20-JAN-2018; i.e. as follows:
1. 23-JAN-2018 to 28-JAN-2018: 22% bounce
2. 02-FEB-2018 to 03-FEB-2018: 19% bounce

Given the current bounce from the 6000 lows has now exceeded the average 20% bounce size, it may suggest that the downtrend which began on 20-JAN-2018 is now complete; and by extension, it may suggest a completed wave structure which has ended the first leg of the crash.

The expectation would be a Primary degree b-wave bounce which may retrace up to 38.2% of the Primary a-wave decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.

However, there are previous levels of support which may serve as resistance as follows:
1. 9350: approx previous line of support/resistance.
2. 9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire market.
3. 10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018

Any one of the aforementioned levels may serve as targets for the bounce, with the average being 9865.
However, exuberance may propel towards the psychological 10000 given the proximity.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter:

"b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."

Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time:

To my future self:" I was there, was fun. Next time sell immediately after such a take off".

Yeah market is manipulated so much i cant think of.
I really dont know i should participate in it, it's a shitshow in reality.
The bounce was strong and with volume, makes me believe that someone bought a lot.
Still we are in downtrend and it can go up to 9K resistance for now.

Personally recommend the following books in regards to Elliott Wave theory (available until Mar 23 2018)...

1. Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior
    Robert R. Prechter, A.J. Frost
    https://files.fm/u/pnmaksvv (77MB)

2. Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading (Bloomberg Financial)
    Wayne Gorman, Jeffrey Kennedy
    https://files.fm/u/mcg8me4m (33MB)

Start with the second book since it provides a visual introduction to illustrating the use of Fibonacci concepts.

Wow, OP is getting new fans . Congratulations, idea worked!

In fact not everything was accurate. Even OP with his grim outlook was expecting BTC to bounce back from 61.8% level. That was the huge support level according to any serious analyst. However I suppose this market is manipulated so much technical analysis cannot really help much here. Poor fellow Masterluk was completely puzzled too

I have a feeling someone with heaps of money is "painting" those graphs on exchanges, and makes them look the way traders could feel comfortable with . Currently that "someone" carefully paints "bubble burst" picture, to seed panic, to make his media predictions true, and to make traders feel like the end of the world and dump everything. VERY serious players got into this fresh market.

You are expecting sub-1k? Interesting. I wouldn't wait for price to go that deep. Too much people wait for such levels to buy in, so you may miss your chance. Somewhere above that level, should be the point where the big bounce begins. Even manipulators cannot do anything there (even if they wanted to). In fact even 2k is practically "FREE" coins.

Again a pleassure to read you. Thanks for answering me.

I do agree on the overall structure. I have been following the rate at GDAX when it jumps a little comments start appearing saying the bottom has been reached, but when you start zooming out is amazing how it sticks to your first assumption on Jan 16.

As we can see it seems that the time.is shortening or that the reations are faster even when the volume that is being operated is double since yesterday night ( I would assume that the less volume.the most easy to change)

Any papper / article you suggest on the Elliot wave subject?

Regards

Edit: when you talk about the Fibonacci, you refer to the sequence? where this sequence is appied?

I just want to thank you. You saved me some money already.

Definitely not a pro, make my fair share of mistakes which can be emotional!

The graphs are made using TradingView.com for free. The analysis on the charts; i.e. the Elliott Wave labeling is manually done by myself and doesn't require equations.
The internal structure of the waves can unfold in many possibilities; i.e. the assumed Triple Zig-Zag structure isn't going to plan as expected; however, the overall larger wave structure thus far remains in place.

The graphs are always indicative of wave form and price, not time; the analysis could unfold sooner or later.

He seems to be pro trader, without emotion involved (wish to be so good in time).
I predicted this drop too, but not so fast  .
I thought we will have at 8 and 7K more bounces - but it goes straight to hell, worse than 2014 seriously.

Despite not being in the crypto Market, after reading several forums and articles I am impressed on your work. It is a pleassure to read you. I must admit I just registered just to comment on this post

I am curious if possible to know which equations do you use to make this graphs. It seems so far that the prediction despite time has been quite accurate or am I missing some part?

If this is only the first wave of the crash, then we will have a rebound.