Since bouncing from exactly 6000 (Bitfinex), the market has staged a 30% rally from the lows.
This is thus far the largest rally since the downtrend sell-off leg that started on 20-JAN-2018.
There were two bounces within the downtrend that began on 20-JAN-2018; i.e. as follows:
1. 23-JAN-2018 to 28-JAN-2018: 22% bounce
2. 02-FEB-2018 to 03-FEB-2018: 19% bounce
Given the current bounce from the 6000 lows has now exceeded the average 20% bounce size, it may suggest that the downtrend which began on 20-JAN-2018 is now complete; and by extension, it may suggest a completed wave structure which has ended the first leg of the crash.
The expectation would be a Primary degree b-wave bounce which may retrace up to 38.2% of the Primary a-wave decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.
However, there are previous levels of support which may serve as resistance as follows:
1. 9350: approx previous line of support/resistance.
2. 9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire market.
3. 10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018
Any one of the aforementioned levels may serve as targets for the bounce, with the average being 9865.
However, exuberance may propel towards the psychological 10000 given the proximity.
Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter:
"b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."
Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time: