Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 5. (Read 26035 times)

This year it has happened many times that the altcoin begin a long descent of the quotation, anticipating the descent of Bitcoin of about 4-5 days; I have already noted this movement in which we first witness a decline in altcoin followed by the decline in bitcoin, which plunges 20% of all others.

Let's see how it evolves this weekend.

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.

I'm not a desperate nor I capitulate (and I don't think my posts make anyone change so much perception - main observations are that reaction is anger or rebuttal towards my posts - so probably it's denial). I had the same observations on this market, when it was raising, or when it is declining. This bear market just concrete my observations, and just highlighted/demostrated the truth.

Holders have contradicting points, and try to explain and justify to themselves that crypto market is something more than gigantic pump and dump, and when demand from public and insiders is going dry, there is no support to maintain price.

Look at commodity markets - and not metals (cause this is also being manipulated), but real commodities - rice, soybean, corn, wheat etc.

There is real demand for these products, and it's not easy to manipulate - cause there is real demand, not stimulated by some entities, just big demand and supply from both sides.

That's how advanced and mature markets look like.

This doesn't make me that I'm against it. I can participate in it, or not, that's just my will, if I accept the risk, and truly understand it.

Also I can be a open-source supporter of projects, so I also help them. But my opinion on crypto markets is different than developing cryptocurrencies themselves (which I view as interesting experiment, and I help if I can).

Agree with the observation.

—17-DEC to 06-FEB: The first leg of the crash, a brutal and extremely volatile sell-off with elongated down-waves.

—06-FEB to 24-JUL: A period of consolidation, which manifested in a large triangle pattern, mostly sideways in movement. The waves within this triangle produced smaller price swings as the triangle contracted; orderly waves and taking greater time to unfold.

—24-JUL to present: Now that price has broken outside of the triangle, the price swings are no longer bounded by the contracting trendlines of the triangle; and hence returning to the volatile wave behavior of extended down-waves. The volatile waves are challenging to count since they tend to be elongated, i.e. sub-dividing, and therefore often linger shortly around immediate support levels before disregarding them.

Overall, the 2018 bear market can defined as three corrective Elliott waves, labelled as an A-B-C decline, where the middle B-wave is a triangle.

I've noticed one more change - the older waves (Feb-end of April) were going up fast, and going down slowly. While the last two waves were slowly creeping up and dumped down very fast. That's is especially visible on the 7-days chart.

Do you think that means something, or its just meaningless observation?

Funny. You probably mean short-term traders, or especially daytraders. But well, I get your point. But try to understand not everyone is a trader here, and those haters (I guess I am one of them in your book?) don't give a fuck about traders and their needs. They care about the longterm picture, and about people who might really invest into Bitcoin as a future currency or money store (whichever wins). As to the waves - yes, they are nicely drawn here. The real longterm (2-10 year) trend is what is important (to me), and it is exactly what makes me argue (call it hate, if you wish).


Didn't you notice yourself, Mr.Admirer? ..or the other guy called 'cronos[something]? Or lots of others who send kudos to OP (muf18 for instance)?
I guess the number of pro- and contra- posters here is roughly equal. Note the ones who just take the advice of OP, are more silent - I assume they are busy trading and don't want to bring too much attention here, as trading is a zero-sum game as you know - traders are playing against each other and are eating each other's money (one of the reasons I don't like them), so no point in advertising a place where they get inspiration.

Since the high of JUL-24, the characteristic of the market has changed: the waves have started to become elongated and are disregarding immediate support levels.

Should they be regarded, the following are immediate support levels en-route to 5178 (BITFINEX): 6194, 5890

its obvious the sentiment is overly positive... look at the polls on the wall observer thread, last time i checked (before the dump from 7300) 90% expected us to go up, only 10% expected us to see us under 7K. And look at the amount of hate OP receive, he's constantly aggressed because most posters here have no idea how to trade waves and think price is the most important aspect. Traders don't give a fuck about prices ! They are buying or selling a trend.

Anyway, when the admirers come and this thread is flood of people saying, WOW nice ! WOW I wish I had find that post earlier ! WOW you had the whole trend correct ! Well this will be an indicator that market sentiment is sensing. But for now, this thread receives no attention whatsoever whereas its the best one of the whole forum.

See you at 5Kish OP !

Warren Buffett said when he flipped the charts, he always got the same answer.
The purpose of inverting the chart, and hiding price/time scales, ought to help with removing investor bias; i.e. ask an outsider to choose which of the following they prefer to be most likely...





When I browse social media anonymously, i.e. YouTube/Twitter/Reddit/etc, I find the majority of viewpoints are overall positive and bullish towards cryptocurrencies. Nearly all the videos I see on YouTube expect a return to 20,000 and beyond at some point, whether next year or within 5 years. The /Bitcoin and /BitcoinMarkets sub Reddit sites are overwhelmingly positive and heavily criticize bearish viewpoints —see the comments on my Reddit posts!
 

One more point - I wonder why did you ignore the valid question from CookieFactory, and switched the topic..?

There is a way to see the short/long positions ratio, but is there a way to estimate public sentiment in social media?

Note the social media providers are filtering and cherry-picking the content for each user so he sees only a subset of the real data he is used to see. That's the way they work - to offer you the content you are comfortable with, based on your previous preferences. So its best to browse after logging out first, whenever that's possible. But even then you cannot know whether you have the real picture.

xxxx123abcxxxx, what makes you think upside-down charts are something to analyze the same way (with the same methods) as a normal chart?

I would assume the top and the bottom of a market chart are not switchable, as the up and down sides are not equivalent - just because the bottom has a hard limit - the zero, while the top has no limit set. Hence the graph look, behaviour and analysis there should be completely different. Sorry for my English. Hope I was able to explain what I mean.

Also - your second graph looks completely unnatural because of too steep rise(down-rise.. ehm) at the end - I believe no sane person expects new parabolic rise this year, even if he is bullish by some reason.

Not sure why you turned chart upside down. Cos you want to tell us that all you did so far have no meaning?

Which one feels more intuitive to you...?

where can you watch that ?

Where are the numbers to back your assertions? The fact that short interest in BTC and ETH are sitting at all time highs throws cold water all over your argument. Cold numbers, FACTS.

Guys September is here. Are we desperate enough for a bottom?  If not will it happen in October?  Or I was totally wrong and will happen latter on or it already happened months ago.  Some of these questions can at least getting denied if not answered.

muf18, reality itself is unknowable to humans, you can only speak of your subjective perception of it.

But... in fact I find posts from muf18 quite useful - there is a need for more capitulation and more desperation, to shake off the ballast. Public is indeed too bullish, which suggests the bear market is far from being at its end.

So bring 'em up - all the depression, grumpiness, disappointment, negativity. Show off your version of reality. Make speculators panic. I would rather not intervene

Nope, I just see reality. Even this forum shows how crypto market looks like - a mix of bots, good honest users, and complete freaks.

Real usage - slim. Real usability - even lower. In 2009-2013 - it was even a good payment option. Now with so many gateways, it's not so appealing anymore.

It's nothing to "trust" here, cause it's decentralized consensus, just it's a speculative trading vehicle now (like it wasn't a few years ago... it was always a speculative trading vehicle in the end...).

But at least 5 years ago it was more "used", as to "purchasing", as in to "trading" - relatively much more used for purchasing, than now (relative).

Now 90+% IS trading, and less that 10% for shopping. That's a joke, and it's with almost every crypto - BTC, LTC, ETH, or anything.

Btw. - "FUD" is idiotic term, straight up for morons. And people, who can't comprehend the "true" real value of BTC, which is low quite honest, much lower than now (today's value is a derivative of excessive speculative trading).

Even if this year brings burden to bitcoin and all the cryptocurrencies because i think this is the right value of coins not what we had in bubble season last year,but it doesnt mean $2000 is indeed to happen


So what are you doing here if does?Looks like you dont trust bitcoin anymore then whats the sense of being here?To spread fud and do some homeworks to bring cryptocurrency down?Lol no one cares about your sentiments budz

Interim bounce...?