Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 7. (Read 26054 times)

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): #ShortSeptember
https://redd.it/9c96vk

After declining 30% from the high of 24-JUL to the low of 14-AUG, the Bitcoin market has now rallied approx 25% into the 31-AUG CME futures last trade date.

Typically, the rally ought retrace a Fibonacci 50% to 61.8% of the previous downtrend (i.e. from 24-JUL to 14-AUG), with possible approx upside targets as follows:

@7200: Fibonacci 50% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —High probability
@7500: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Medium probability
@7600: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of entire Bitcoin market. —Medium probability
@8000: Fibonacci 78.6 retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Low probability

With overbought price/RSI negative divergences on the 4-hr timeframe, and with the first of the aforementioned Fibonacci targets reached; barring any wave extensions, it is quite possible that the bounce is nearing completion.

As per the aforementioned Fibonacci targets, at 7500/7600 marks a strong confluence of Fibonacci resistance zones.
At present juncture, taking out 6880 ought to signal weakening momentum, and the start of a trend reversal.

Once the current bounce completes, the next sell-off leg ought to mirror the first, i.e. a 30% drop towards 5200 approx (5178 BITFINEX) by possibly mid-September, coinciding with the CBOT XBT futures expiration on 19-SEP.

Models are speculative Elliott Wave guesswork indicative of price/structure; the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.

It is true, but if you think about it and if you have studied well, Elliot's waves combined with the Fibonacci levels are a fundamental weapon / aid for AT on Bitcoin; if then to Elliot and Fibonacci you can also match the cycles of Gann (in my opinion the most difficult and complicated to study, understand and apply in AT) you are a BEST TRADER and you will have much to gain!

Is this another FUD or what? Well, this may look so scary but i really have made up my mind to hold my crypto for several years because i have high hopes and beliefs specifically to bitcoin and other alt coins. Since i am already here, so i am also ready to take the risks.

You mean in 2019, it will be cheaper ?  

I really like bots. I mean really, they are always predictable with their stupid algos.

Must contain X to say Y

Sometimes I consider myself talking to russian bots going around here, like mad.

Elliot Wave analyses are not 100% correct. Those analyses usually fails on crypto market. I never trust Elliot Wave and i prefer trend channels and fibonacci levels.

I'm sure that further pessimistic forecasts that say that bitcoin will drop below 5500 is a bluff. These forecasts were created specifically to prevent many people from now buying bitcoin at a very low price. The lowest price that year.

Stay calm and optimistic on you. Good actions usually have good results.

A Fibonacci 38.2% to 61.8% retrace of the previous downtrend, i.e. from 24-JUL to 14-AUG, doesn't invalidate the overall bearish stance of the market.

Taking out the high of 24-JUL would favor a bullish scenario, until then, the market remains with an overall bearish bias.

The market is rallying into the 31-AUG CME last trade date, possible upside approx targets are as follows:

@7200: Fibonacci 50% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —High probability
@7500: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Medium probability
@8000: Fibonacci 78.6 retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Low probability

Upon completion of the bounce, the next sell-off leg towards 5200 approx ought to resume.

Models are speculative Elliott Wave guesswork.

Trivia: the number of views of this thread has now surpassed the price of Bitcoin! 

well right now your chart are rekt

i thought E was supposed to be the last wave ?

It will be better when fewer people know it. When many people know too much. This leads to many complicated problems. Because the rest of the participants are mostly like a gambler. Makes the market worse and the results are not as expected.

It is hard to count the %. I speculate that bottom had not happened from the simple fact that it is only 8 months after last ATH and that people here are not as depressed as they at end of 2014.

Actually when we go to 90% of public, they believe it will happen just like this guys perfects. That Bitcoin will go to $1000 and stay there. Many even believe it will go to zero.   That is the sentiment on Bitcoin from the vast majority of people on Earth. Those that think that Bitcoin will never go under $6000 are a tiny minority.

That's just tell me it's not over. Public is 90%+ times not right.

Man he changed his analysis every time he comes to this thread. How hard is to read this?  He said there will be bottom Q3 2019. But on other post he said there will be no more growth in bitcoin.  He just throws numbers around that is it.

It is normal that you dont think bottom will happen when I do.  Everyone have different wives. But big part believes it already happened a month ago. 

Well, I read your analysis now, I did not know it and I do not share your analysis 
I hope for my investments that really Bitcoin find its bottom this September but my 6 sense says it's still early ..... we'll see soon 

In addition you did your analysis at the end of June, you saw the market trend and you read a lot of other analyzes, reports and information from other users and agencies, while OP made its first analysis on January 8th, with Bitcoin at $ 17,000, Eth at $ 1500, Xrp at $ 3.5, BCash at $ 3000, Ada at $ 1, Neo at $ 150, Nano at $ 30, Xvg at $ 0.17, etc ... almost every Coin reached its own Ath on January 8th and nobody expected the endless crash we've seen so far.

It remains to understand and evaluate how far we will arrive and where it will stop ... but we must recognize its merit and its analysis.

yes you are right and hopefully this analysis can help traders know what steps will happen in the future and what is the current condition of cryptocurrency. because there are so many traders who are panicking and confused about the current cryptocurrency price.

I'm a realistic, and yes I'm crypto enthusiast, just not in current form. It's too corrupted with ICOs, centralized exchanges and greedy people all over the place. I'm surprised you dont see it. And bitcoin price is also corrupted with that kind of people. Sorry to say - today's market is manipulated as hell.

Amen!  

Try to draft an article for Bloomberg - they would love the idea. I see the heading: "Former crypto enthusiast finally accepted the truth."

Surely you have more experiance then those "traders from stock markets" trading "shit assets". Guess what? BTC is shit asset. It's slow, 0 intrisic value shit asset. You exactly described it. There isnt any "new paradigm", just some people that want to get richer in fiat money. Every bear market is different, and you can't take it, that it will go the same way. You actually presents 0 evidence for the viability of cryptocurrencies and presents typical ignorance for people in crypto "sphere". I actually know the purpose of most of them and actual usage - and to say least - it's not impressive given the 200B$ marketcap, it's laughable, 90%+ is price speculation only, not usage or anything. Ethereum dapps have almost 0 usage, the same with almost any altcoin. Bitcoin has on average about 200K tx per day - miniscule number taking into account all the global operations, and most of them are lotteries, hazards, and exchange deposits/withdrawals. So speculation and games one more time. It is more thought as a casino or roulette than real money.

@Febo - every bear market is a different market in different timespace and circumstances. Such approach won't get you anywhere - I thought about the same - long, long time ago, and it won't go the same way, it is already different road. The most common approach was taking nasdaq 2000 bubble burst, as it's closest and resembles moves in longer term probably, but still it isn't the same.