Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 4. (Read 26027 times)

In any case I would go to analyze the primary trend and the final fund that said OP ..... that's where you will really see all his analysis.
Recall that OP called the Bitcoin descent in mid-January 2018 when Btc stood at around $ 17,000 and when everyone gave it ready to start again to score new max; also in January he started to call and showed a chart in which he predicts Bitcoin at about $ 2000 towards the end of 2018 and then even lower in 2019, or ETH at about $ 200 in May 2018 (but then reached in September), or Eos at about $ 4.5 in March (but reached in August), or Neo at 45 $ in February (but then reached in early April), or XRP at about 0.30 in February (but reached in September).

All this when nobody talked about rebels, and above all of such entities and duration!

The key thing to see is if Bitcoin really arrives at about $ 2,000 or not: if it arrives in March 2019 instead of at the end of 2018 as initially planned, I do not care.

Well @g-uid, it's better (for some people) to say anything and doesn't provide any worth noting analysis or insight, they want just to nitpick others TA and analysis.

Even tho trend is currently settling, but on larger TF we are still in downtrend.

So far the "broken clock" has been right more than he has been wrong. Read the thread carefully.

So your prediction went wrong once again? Price should be sub $5000 by now according to the chart. Why all 30 days predictions you make end up wrong? That is sort of statistically impossible. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

is this it?

The decline in Bitcoin which started on 02-SEP, saw an approx 20% drop into CBOE futures expiry on 19-SEP.

Wild price action occurred during the last hour of futures expiry; the decline was abruptly terminated, and a rally has since been underway with news of delays to the Bitcoin ETFs.

Unexpected surprise price action: futures expiry has usually tended to exaggerate in the direction of the prior ongoing trend; i.e. in this case, down.

The rally thus far has now retraced half-way back of the 02-SEP decline; Fibonacci resistance levels as follows (BITFINEX):

@6765: 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 02-SEP to 19-SEP decline.
@6920: 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 02-SEP to 19-SEP decline.

Once any of aforementioned resistance levels are reached, the interrupted downtrend ought to resume towards an initial target of 5200 approx. This would complete an overall A-B-C structure which began on 24-JUL. Taking out the high of 02-SEP would suggest another structure at play.

I agree with you and in fact I would advise OP author to keep this thread "clean" and in theme with Elliot waves, which is why I, and I believe many others, appreciate and follow.

If you want to talk about conspiracies, prophecies and more, I suggest opening a new thread so as not to dirty the beautiful work done in this 
Thank you

I found this thread back in early Feb and have been following it ever since.
Although i don't agree with all your predictions, a lot of it rang true at the time and changed me from a permabull to neutral. So much so, i sold my large bags of neo and omg when they weren't too far off ATH. Had i not found this i probably would have just held on blindly and i'd be rekt now, for that i thank you. Keep it up buddy.

We are here not going anywhere. We are comfortably relaxing and sitting  on our bags for the next bull run to happen in a year or two. Right about the time you predict that Bitcoin will stabilize under $1000 price.

The stock market is a significantly larger ecosystem. So yes, on an individual level, there are some stocks in a bull market, whilst others are in a bear market. Likewise, some markets can be in bull market, whilst others in different geographical area could be in a bear market.

For example, the majority of stocks in the US, i.e. DOW/S&P/NASDAQ indices are currently still in a bull market; however, it appears the German DAX is in the early stages of a bear market.

To add to the complexity, there can be nuances; for example, Facebook appears to be in the early stages of a bear market, whilst Twitter may still have further upside.

P.S. Speaking of commodities, the waves currently unfolding in Bitcoin could be developing an alternate scenario similar to commodity markets; I have a surprise soon and a lifeline for the hodlrs, stay tuned!  

Interesting... I have a side-question, most probably stupid one. Trading and markets generallywere out of the sphere of my interests, so pardon my ignorance... But your statement raised my curiosity.

You generalize *stocks*, *commodities*, *currencies*, *cryptocurrencies*... Well, I understand your view on cryptocurrencies - I assume you short everything with "crypto-" as a prefix , but what about the rest?
Are you long on all stocks and short on all commodities? Aren't different stocks behaving differently, and significantly rising when others go significantly down?
Or it makes sense to trade them as a "herd" doing the same movements at the same times?

Crypto is an ecosystem and it seems to go down/up as a whole. That's understandable as it all represents a common set of technologies and applications (to some extend; the diversity is getting much bigger, but that's different topic). But stocks..?! They represent different companies working in completely different areas of life, operating in different parts of the world. Did the world became so small and tied together, so they are also making an ecosystem..?

I appreciate your thread for the info and discussion it’s generated but protip: never go full potato on conspiracies, manipulation, and voodoo.

Well stocks are almost at the last wick of upside it seems... Don't see much upside for them (S&P and NASDAQ seems to be at parabolic move now).
And you mean US stocks only. EU are in sideways or bear market already. Asia stocks are at bear market or consolidation.

Rest I agree.

Upside may be limited to the following (BITFINEX):

@6620 : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 04-SEP to 08-SEP decline.
@6775 : 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 04-SEP to 08-SEP decline.

Current investment strategy:
   —Long stocks (possible top in 2019, then 25% bear market).
   —Short commodities (possible metals low in 2022, oil top in 2020).
   —Long currencies (i.e. x/USD major pairs, US dollar bear market until 2022).
   —Short cryptocurrencies.



With hardly 10,000 views of this thread, I doubt there is any influencing power! 

This 'prophecy' sounds like something more than merely an Elliot Wave based market analysis you are supposedly doing in this thread

Who will hit it with a torpedo? Looking at your statement I would assume you believe Bitcoin drop is not natural, but some entity purposely nukes it. Thats sounds like a new vibe in your postings...

EDIT: Or, thinking a bit more, maybe not so new..? Continuing to scare people off with doom predictions poured into unoffending market analysis? What could create more panic, than a picture of somebody deliberately making all crypto people run and collect in one place, just to kill them all..? A bit like this: "There is no place to hide... Run far away if you can, or you'll be killed in your last haven - in BTC trap, you dirty little crypto rat"  

Could you tell more about your overall investment strategies? Are there coins or commodities you hold, because you believe in them? Or do you only trade waves?

And thanks again for your posts, they are refreshing alternatives to all those sneaky BTC50,000 posts.

The money is consolidating in Bitcoin because the money is going back to a place of value before the market turns around. If you look at the charts from this year bitcoin is slowly leveling out at the bottom of the market ($6000). First it would hit $6k and then spike up by thousands, then it would stay longer and longer around $6000 and go up less and less. Now we're pretty much at the point where it has leveled out at $6000. Likely the next couple of months will be staying in a range at this bottom before momentum slowly builds up as Bitcoin dominates more and more of the market. As Bitcoin's strength in the market grows money will start coming in as even the slowest people out there realize Bitcoin is getting ready to enter a long bull market again for the next couple of years. By January we'll probably be in the early stage of the next long bull market, possibly back to $10k by then.

Next year as Bitcoin continues to surge the altcoin market will slowly come back as more energy comes back into crypto and people start looking to make money on top of Bitcoin again.

Bitcoin is bottoming out right now, getting ready to make a slow turn around starting this Fall. The altcoin market with this recent sharp drop is probably getting near bottoming out, at least for the altcoins that will survive to be part of the next rally. But the ones that survive probably won't start turning around until Bitcoin's upward momentum starts bringing people back in, so it will probably follow Bitcoin's turn around by a few months, so major altcoins might not really start heading upward for good again for another 6 months or so. Bitcoin very well may get back close to 80% market dominance (and a $200B marketcap) before people start putting money into altcoins again around next spring.

First the ALTs are going to be nuked; and so everyone will jump ship into BTC.
This causes BTC dominance to increase.
Once everyone is all-aboard BTC, it will be hit with a torpedo.

I do not think you should be linking bitcoin and altcoins - people own bitcoin for its own "features and risks" and people own say ethereum for its own "features and risks". But the feature and risks of each are very different.  so if you are buying and selling expecting some price relationship eg if bitcoin falls 10% ethereum will fall no more than 15% you are going to churn through a lot of your money. I think quite a few people that are into bitcoin own 95% bitcoin and 5% alts - they select 1 or 2 alts with particular features that may make it a great thing in the future. But when they have new money to buy crypto with  in many cases it will be all bitcoin even if it means lessening the % share of their portfolio in alts. So alts will always have a hard time (as they should given how many problem most have in the way they are set up etc)