Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 14. (Read 9875 times)

pretty flat at the moment.

110th unit makes about 9 a day

burns 85 kwatts  so

10 cent power = 9-8.50 + 0.50 in a day
 9 cent power = 9-7.65  + 1.35 in a day
 8 cent power  = 9-6.80 + 2.20 in a day    so if you have a paid off farm and 8 cent power you are good to go. but if you have to pay loans you are in trouble 

Where I live (pretty close to the sea) it's somewhat slightly humid, but where I mine it's pretty dry in the summer, average humidity is below 15%, so I don't have to worry much about humidity, my only real problem is when there is a counter hot wind coming from the south, it pushes against the exhaust fans and slows down the movement of hot air, the good thing is that these kinds of winds don't come too often and don't last for too long when they come.

48c with what humidity? 70%?

that is a brutal climate.

117 f is the hottest I have been in that is about 47c.
48c is about 118.4 f

I was at los vegas. but humidity was about 10%

we had 98 f yesterday
we had 92 f today.

my hessaire evaporation cooler is solid

room is about 85f to 99f at the 98f temp outside.

here in nj 98f is very high we almost never go to 100f

How cute  , I only see these temps late at night, the past week has been 35-48c, good that you got a stronger fan, it's all about moving enough air, S9s and whatsminer are pretty fine even with temps as high as 48c, Avalons are shit, I got 40 Avalons that can't mine anywhere near stable when temps go above 30c, I am glad I didn't buy more.


That's true, if not for all the other miners shutting down, we would still see +2-3% every epoch, but it seems like we might stay flat, some leave, some join so they compensate and leave us at a flat rate, also, many miners are probably mining at almost no profit or even at a loss just because they are stuck in a power contract and they must burn that power regardless, those contracts take time to finish only then they will need to re-consider their status, this is a game of patience, those who have what it takes to stay around will benefit from others leaving.

As people have mentioned earlier, farms that had future orders in before the price crash are probably still installing that hardware when it shows up. So that would put several months of delay before we'd see any major slowdown. I think it's more likely to see gear prices crash than diff go down. As more miners realize that it's probably going to take a long time to get back to all-time-highs, gear manufacturers are going to have a harder time finding miners that will pay > 2-year ROI prices. I think the best we can hope for as far as diff going down is a few modest and temporary drops as gear gets shuffled around from farms that go under from spiking power costs to sites that are still profitable.

Here's a table that shows the $/th you'd need to pay for gear to ROI in 12 months for different power costs and miner efficiencies at $19k and current diff. The best price I'm seeing for a new S19pro is ~$40/th.

And surprise surpise 

Price is at 19k, hosting companies are dropping miners, energy prices are through the roof, Iran shuts down even licensed miners and yet:


Hope I'm not wrong on the math here, but an s19xp hyd shipping now will earn you 16$ a day with free energy and will ROI in about 2 years and 7 months.
If you can't get any tax-exempt, deductions, you're not playing with some other people's money, why would you do it? Why?

Btw 35°-36° for three days, good thing I've changed two weeks ago one of the fans from 1000mc/h to 3k, just in case.

This is true. My guess was 15-17k for bottom.

I would prefer a solid crash for 3 weeks 15k would be good enough.

But this may be the bottom. 17.7 that is

Meanwhile only 25% into the diff change and it's only approx -0.7%
However, A large drop in hash power would at least show more negative by now.

Of course 25% is still a very inaccurate point to 'guess' the next diff change

Still, price hasn't gone down as low as many said ... yet ... and has gone up again.
So far, the dip to $18k was very short lived.

As I've said before about price dips (or drops)
Many people making a 'fortune' now making less of a 'fortune'

The question for them is how much of that fortune they wasted on sex, drugs and fast cars ...
Can they survive with less of a 'fortune'

No most cloud contracts have a we can fuck you anytime we want clause. They are allowed to cancel your contract and refund you when they want to.

It is why cloud mining is a poor choice to buy into. So when profits go sky high they tend to cancel your contract.
Also when you go negative for 2 jumps of diff they tend to cancel your contract.
So if you have an s17 contract that charges 8 cents a kwatt. the gear burns $4.25 it earns 50 x 0.0917 = $4.58 at this level you are up 33 cents a day
so it will run for now, but if price goes to 18k and 1th earns 0.0778 cents or 50 x 0.0778 = $3.89 that gear will drop off in 4 weeks

It would be good for this to happen so if we could do 17k for 30 days hash rate will drop a lot.

Do we have an estimate of how much hashrate is sold by "cloud mining" contracts?
Providers shouldn't care about profitability, because the costs of electricity are already paid for, and even if they do for no amount of profitability decrease, or electricity cost increase will they be allowed to turn them off, because of the contract. So, I guess almost every contract made in the last ~2 years, keeps miners running at an unprofitable rates, though mostly to the detriment of the users, not providers.
Could this be a factor in the next few months?

To force out a lot of miners we would need under 15k for weeks.

I'd say the bottom is right above $15k but it could dip for a few hours down to 14.x.

Maybe mines left their gears on desperate to see through what they think is a short-lived dip.

Since the dip isn't getting anywhere higher in the past week I suppose that some will finally capitulate and shut off most of their equipment.

merged

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Price dropped 47.7k to 20k  Jan 1 to jun 22 2022 this is a 58% price drop

so diff moved only 24.27 to 29.57 from Jan 1 to Jun 22  2022  a factor of 1.21 x great gear



   
price drop 15.5k Jan 3  to 6.6k Jul 2 2018 this is a 58% price drop

diff moved Jan 1 1.87  july 6  2018 5.36   this is a factor of 2.86x larger diff

so price drop is very close to the same say Jan 1 to July 1

yet diff jumps is only 1.21x vs 2.86x

this is a huge difference from 2018 bear to 2022 bear huge fucking giant major difference.

Looks like we are in for a small decline in BTC difficulty:

BTC price: $20,169.

maybe they all fall and btc goes under 10k

who knows be ready for the worst


pushing -2.4%

I would like to see a solid set of drops.

Miners in Texas who pay index rates for energy are definitely getting screwed. The average ERCOT price per kWh was 4¢ back in April but is now 7-8¢ after the natural gas rally. Once you add delivery charges of ~1.5¢, farms are easily paying > 9 cents, which is trash.

I can get 6¢ residential or 6.5¢ 100 kW commercial in North Carolina. New farms are going to consider other states with reasonably cheap power like UT, OK, NC, GA... instead of the usual NY/TX/WA.

It's going to take an awful long time until the publicly-traded ones fail even if they become penny stocks. Most of them have signed long-term energy contracts, so they have to pay for the GWh whether they use it or not. The real price is near zero, unless they find another miner who buys that contract. When you consider the difficulty of pulling out all the gear and selling it, they will keep mining even if they restructure through Chapter 11. So the network difficulty will be propped up since the ASICs will always be mining. What might happen is there won't be any new corp-o-mines entering the industry.

But I agree that farms < 100 MW will capitulate more quickly. They usually aren't locked in to these long-term structures, so selling is more desirable.

I think the net effect will be that diff will be lower or stagnant for a few months, but will grow slowly at 2%/month after that. Very similar to 2018-2019

Here is where I press reset on all the years I've done accounting and I invent a new method:
If the gear was 10k, but I paid with BTC worth 50k, so I paid one BTC for 5 miners, since one BTC is now 20k, if all my profits made in the year of mining plus the cost of the resell are above 20k $, I earned...stuff!

I use this to comfort myself since being a weak hand I did sell weekly 30% of the revenue to have in hand the euros to pay for the bills at the end of the year when I finally have to settle with the parents for the farm expenses and all the IRS things. If I would have held all the mining revenue in BTC, then...shit! Really shit! Well, if I do the math probably it's not that bad but I really don't want to know, I have a ballpark figure but I just want to ignore it.


Tell me about it, I had a few dreams where I was at a computer and it didn't show any hashes, I was trying everything but it was still zero   Plus another one where I went to the farm and the whole room was empty as I was robbed  
Luckily, apart from one PSU I had zero issues in love one year, probably because living at a farm from a young age I stepped in a lot of luck!


Facepalm!
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/01/10/bitfarms-bought-432m-of-bitcoin-in-the-first-week-of-january/

They will probably not do it again, but there are thousands of others.

It's all connected together when people are overpaying for mining gears, dying to get their hands on a miner that even when the numbers were good needed 2 years to ROI, it's just a good sign that shit is about to hit the fan, so holding either was just a bad idea, but you are right, if you don't plan on selling your BTC at any point, then getting a gear is less damaging at least at the psychology level.

But do keep in mind that exchanging BTC for a mining gear can be more damaging at times, you still need to ROI the BTC you spent on it, and depending on when you bought it, and for how much, as well as how much it costs to run it and at what point you will be forced to shut it down, you could be in a situation where you were better off just keeping your BTC.

You also need to add the fact that keeping BTC is a lot easier and safer than keeping a miner, so if I have 1 BTC which I can store in a cold wallet, and I have the option to buy a mining gear that will get me 1.1BTC in two years, I will pass and just keep the BTC, in fact, given how risky mining is, to me, if it can't "at least on paper" do me a 2x, I won't touch it.


it's already happening, Bitfarms sold 1,500 like two days ago to fund some credit-backed facility loan, and many of these large miners took loans against both their BTC bags and mining gears, those loans aren't cheap, above 10% interest rate, for the most part, they will have to let go of their BTC bags first, next will be their mining gears, whoever gets liquidated first will benefit the remaining miners.

I wouldn't say it's bad, it's actually great, at least from the small miner's perspective, think of it this way, these large corporate miners formed in the last bull cycle, and they managed to easily raise billions of dollars because everyone involved thought they could make a ton of money, things took a turn for the worse, the investors now are probably hitting their heads against the wall for paying 10k or 15k a gear to Bitmain, even if they manage to come out of this "alive", they won't be doing the same thing again.

If the bull run took 1 more year to finish, everyone would have made a ton of money and in the next cycle you and I won't be able to mine shit, but now, we have better chances.

 

Let's the bright side of things, at least from my point of view and maybe some other small miners
- I paid for the gear with BTC, if I hadn't have bought them I would have kept the BTC, thus is USD value I would have taken a serious loss, I can buy back the sold part far cheaper and I still have the gear, even if it devalued in $, a bit of twisting things and conversion rates and the picture is not that bad anymore
- Some of us are trapped in a situation where they can't expand because no more cheap energy but at the same time the small amount comes nearly free, If I would go and renegotiate the full contract to lower the overall amount I would save only a tiny fraction, the limited extra capacity comes at 5 cents if used in full.
- no expenses with maintenance, some or no expenses with rent, gear that has already reached ROI then it makes no sense to stop mining even ar minimal profits
So if the above are met there is no way in these times bigger firms would kill us.

But, just as some of the small miners might be shielded better than huge farms and might sooner or later run into real accounting problems but:
- miners that have just entered the mining business paying 10k per gear and only caught the biggest revenue at 15 cents/Th are going to be in serious trouble
- large companies can run at a loss at long as they get more funds from investors bailing them out, they theoretically could outlive us till our gear breaks down
- the really bad part, I don't want to see some of those going into bankruptcy now, they have a lot of BTC stashed aside, and getting those liquidated in this market will add more pain


Unfortunately, as long as that gear will make 10 cents it will still be deployed and mine even if everyone knows it will not ROI, for them with all the money already spent not only on gear but on facility expansions and in some cases full powerplants it will be a bigger loss not to mine at all. I'm looking for example at Mara, they have bought a damn powerplant, if they shut down mining then they have a new liability, while if they keep on doing so at least the electricity is produced by them so they are fully trapped here and will keep mining to lose 1 and not 5.
Although I'm really confident in my plans right now, as the markets are really aligning with my bearish persona I really don't want to witness a survival of the fittest of such magnitude in mining.   


Indeed, because I have a feeling the worse ain't over yet!
Full polar bear mode deployed! 

Gear prices have dropped by a lot, and probability in fiat is 60% lower than it was back in February, it makes sense for gear prices to fall, a gear that used to cost 15k is now selling for 5k and below, they will still drop, it's just a matter of time, gear prices take some time to react to profitability drop, most of the big guys mine with S19 or the equivalent, so something in the 30-35w/th range.

at current prices, I don't see any reason for them to shut down or to stop deploying.

Let's run some simple math and try to be as realistic as possible.

Let's pretend all the big guys that make up the majority of the hashrate mine at 6 cents (3-4 cents for power, the rest for maintenance, employees, rent, etc), now since many of them will be getting the S19 XP while some of their gears is still the 17 series or the equivalent, let's use something in the middle of both and that would be 35w/th

So let's work with 100th for simplicity.

100th consumes 84kWh, at 6 cents that is  $5 a day.

let's also assume that they will only stop hashing if they get to a negative number,  or let's be generous and assume they will stop when their average 100th makes less than 50 cents.


1st scenario, difficulty unchanged:

BTC at 13k > they still make $ a 5.52$ - 5 = 0.52$ a day
BTC at 11.75k  > they mine at a loss.


2nd the scenario, difficulty changes, price unchanged.

Diffuclty at 44t  >5.52$ - 5 = 0.52$ a day (47% increase from the current figures)
Difficulty at 49t they mine at a loss.


At current figures, their heads are still above the water making $8 and paying $5 and thus netting $3 per 100th, but with that small income, it's pretty hard to expand, and even assuming the price will stop dropping (which does not seem to be the case) they can only endure about a 40% increase in difficulty, so that's only 100EH more, in other words, less than a million gears, there are hundreds of thousands in pre-orders waiting to be sent to the U.S, every dollar BTC loses makes the room for new gears a lot smaller, there might come a point where some gears are already losing money before arriving at their locations.

Meanwhile, with the summer heat, I saw someone talking about some farms shutting down/ underclock in places like Texas, which could help bring the difficulty down a bit, at least a long side with many of the small miners who are shutting down because they pay a lot more than 6 cents and don't actually have a 30-35w/th.

My long-long term view on those large corporate miners is that most of them will be screwed, it's very unlikely that we can recover before Q3-Q4 of next year, we may stop dropping but we won't be putting any crazy high prices, and even after we recover, the next thing coming will be the halving, so difficult times ahead, not just for them, for everyone who is involved in mining, especially those who bought the top, like 15k per miner that now makes them a 100$ a month, stay strong fellow miners.