Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 12. (Read 9687 times)

I thought the previous estimation posted was too early so now way in hell could that pace be sustained, yet..


We're past half of the period, and it's looking really bad, we're going to reach May levels, and although no chance (yet) to beat the 31.25T ATHit's still going to be pretty close. And of course, the price is nowhere near May levels.

Since Phil mentioned the weather in Texas, yeah, the summer is almost gone here too, it's the first week in which only one of the largest cities in my country will manage to record something around 30C, and by the end of the month, we're going to a max of 20C from 37C at the start of August.
Too bad that without cheap electricity there won't be any change for the better for whatever miners are left on this continent.

We have developed 3 solar arrays in NJ

a   45kwatt =   7.5kwatt 24/7/365
a 115kwatt = 19.1kwatt 24/7/365
a 280kwatt = 46.6kwatt 24/7/365

they all net meter

Doing the math for these as to what power costs is next to impossible.

You could argue 17 cents is saved vs summer power cost
You could argue 10 cents is saved vs winter power cost and use of the heat
You could sell for 8 cents locally to a neighbor in the case of the 2 bigger ones. >>> NJ community power plant rules

So you can come up with 3 numbers for your kwatts spent.

There are so many programs rebates deals it is kind of countless.

The big plant in Clifton is close to Nasdaq's power source. We are trying to cut a deal to bring in a container which is a 40 foot UPS it would be charged by the solar. We would get fees to do this and it would fire up in a black out to run Nasdaq's servers. What is this value? I have zero idea. We also have a commitment to be a telsa+ev cars charging site.

So in order to decide how to value the mining vs selling the power or leasing the charger or running the Nasdaq UPS is really complex.

If I run 2kwatts 24 hours it is 50 kwatts (round up) I can do 1gh on eth and earn 1000x2.59 cents = $25.90 to burn 50 Kwatts that is 52 cents a kwatt.

that kills anything:

  8 cents for  selling to a neighbor
11.4 cents for mining btc
17 cents saved on summer rates
10 cents saved on winter rates
 

Now picture all the money due to leave the mining system when eth goes POS.

I estimate 25 million a day goes poof.
Replaced by 3 million uncollectible interest.

This will decimate the industry of mining.  Yeah it will hurt BTC,LTC,Doge and other gpu coins.


or ETC will whale like a mofo.



It is early but this could be Texas gear going back online.



https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/tx/dallas


Temps dropped by about 10-12F  or 5-6C in Texas which may free up power.

Of course, I was half serious half joking but before typing that I checked the price at the nearest charging station, 45 Eurocents/kwh, so you could afford to have the station filled just 1/4 of the time, and of course, you could just inject that into the grid with the ton of new programs that are out there for small business generating power.

But!!! Weird coincidence, the second topic I visited today pointed to this:
https://fortune.com/2022/08/16/bitcoin-mining-crypto-winter-stronghold-digital-selling-electricity/
Pastebin https://pastebin.pl/view/6c8f8162

And I swear I saw it after I posted the one above! 

I am going with speculation. I can make 8 cents today selling the power or 3 cents mining but if BTC goes back to $65000 I made 9 cents.
That and generally power has to be used when it's generated. If there is no demand for electric car charging or to do other things you can either spin down the plant for a bit or mine. So once again, the miners will always run.

Pure guesses on my part but seem reasonable.

-Dave

And as multiple times before, you can't have your cake and eat it too, the difficulty is up only +0.6280% but the price is down on 7 days period -11.4%, income per TH/s sliding again, I think it hit below 9 cents. It kind of stops being only about eating the cake and more like getting an overpriced cake that is moldy and getting a beating because you didn't tip enough.


I doubt that there is any major miner operation in mainland Europe still mining that doesn't have its own power generation and at this point, it's a bit hard for me to understand why should somebody burn energy to get a measly share in revenue where they could simply sell that energy on the market and get rid of a lot of troubles.
Assuming the XP at these rates, if you miraculously generate power at 5 cents you will make as much in profit as selling that power for 13cents on the grid, so, seriously you would earn a ton more by charging electric cars.

Right now it's trending towards a small increase in difficulty.


Price is currently $23,373 so it isn't pushing miners to accelerate.

China has some shrinking rivers, and water levels are pretty low, some power cuts are happening, and we know there is still some mining going on there, so that could slow down the difficulty, EU zone is having a hard time getting gas and oil, energy prices are sky high, Kosovo had some power cuts recently, all of that could also help a bit with difficulty although I don't think there EU has any considerable hashrate to let go of.

So that's all short-term, so long-term? let's look at the other side of the planet:

The U.S? not much action going on regarding energy,  also, the Chinese are slowing down on production, and thus, their oil/gas demand will drop, I think that will bring energy prices in the U.S to very low levels, and large U.S miners will continue to have access to cheap power and they will keep on adding gears

Unless something major happens, like China invades Taiwan and TSMC shuts down, I don't see difficulty stopping.

we backed off nicely and look good with only 180 blocks left


Latest Block:   749772  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.3201%  (1837 / 1813.07 expected, 23.93 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                            
Current Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                            
Next Difficulty:   between 28582640454716 and 28585929623924
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.4480% and +1.4597%
Previous Retarget:   August 4, 2022 at 8:29 AM  (+1.7409%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:07 AM  (in 1d 5h 26m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:09 AM  (in 1d 5h 28m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 37m 20s and 13d 19h 39m 24s
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Dropped even closer to 0%




Latest Block:   749906  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   100.4008%  (1971 / 1963.13 expected, 7.87 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Current Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                           
Next Difficulty:   between 28323521298717 and 28323595893258
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5283% and +0.5286%
Previous Retarget:   August 4, 2022 at 8:29 AM  (+1.7409%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:09 AM  (in 0d 7h 28m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:09 AM  (in 0d 7h 28m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 39m 31s and 13d 22h 39m 33s




maybe we get to 0% or -0.1%. at worst maybe we go up to +1%

Sideways action again.

let us see the next jump

well I still like to look at the following  diff charts

 jan 2018 to august 2018 vs jan 2022 to august 2022

the ratios of increased diff are far different. from each other.

about 1.1 to 1 this cycle as  27.69/24.27 is  1.14 to one

vs 3 to one 2018 cycle  5.94/1.87 is 3.17 to one

here's hoping this is a future indicator of stability for BTC

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and we did a +1.7%

Yeah, I know but I was just thinking, maybe if Bitmain is cutting prices to industrial-size clients it might hint at a lack of customers there,  and I really don't get the XP prices either...

Running through some numbers,at 2/5/10 cents
The XP 140T gets you 13/11/7$ a day
The S19 95T gets you 8/6/2$ a day.

Assuming your price of 8.3K and of the other one Bitmain standard of 4k, at 5cents/kwh you get 754 days of ROI for the XP vs 666  days.   Adding 45 days in which the S19 XP has to catch up with the other one it means it will take the lead and be more productive only after two years and two months! Of course, it gets better and better the more expensive your energy is, at 10cents per kWh it is no competition, but if you have even cheaper energy then it kind of makes no sense...
With the 19pro, the competition is even tighter if you manage to get it at 5k.


Yeah, it was way better than 28T and B at 22700 

True, but those are Hydro and future orders, I was talking about spot prices, they have generally gone up in the past couple of days, even the used ones, by the way, the Hydro requires 3-phase power and has to be installed in Bitmain's own container.

S19 XP spot price is 8.3k in Malaysia which is good for U.S miners (no China tax), the Sep future orders for the same gear are about 1k lower, on the other hand, S19j sells for nearly half the price per TH, not sure why would anyone pay almost double for 21w/th vs 29w/th is it even worth it? your power rate needs to be so high for that to make sense.

+1.5%

small shot to go negative with only 23 blocks ahead of the pace and 469 to go

. 188 x 5451 = 1.021 megawatts.

the $110,000 box only provides 1.030 megawatts.

they used to ask you to buy 210 xp units which pull less power.

my guess is the box can only do 170 units not 188 based on its 1.03 megawatt rating.

Growth slowing down:


I just saw this from Bitmain:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220711184847228qGon7r0z06E3


But, MOQ of 188, and I have no idea why the 188. I initially though that this would be the capacity of an ANTSPACE HK3 but it's not, it lists 210 miners.

That was a temporary slow down which only lasted for a day or two, here is the current status



I also noticed that gear prices went up slightly in the past couple of days, it seems like many people are actually buying unlike what most of us think, the current ROI on gear is just way too long at least in terms of BTC, if I want to spend cash and had the options to buy gear at current prices or simply just buy BTC I sure as hell won't buy 2 years ROI gears, but many they think the difficulty will drop somehow which doesn't seem to happen, the price crashed and yet the difficulty keeps going up despite everything.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

The pace has picked up real fast, I think it was at about 95% for the first 100-150 blocks, so it's likely that we keep climbing higher, is the heat wave in texas over or have they managed to increase their power supply and allowed miners to turn back on? I hope the -5% we had won't be very short-lived.

Query: What is the power limit for what you can supply back to the grid in NJ before you have to go through the state PU commission for permitting as a regulated Grid Power Generation site?

In Michigan it is anything from 500kw on up no matter what the source is be it solar/wind/hydro/waste gas/ et al.

yeah so glad we have the 280kwatt solar array under construction.

Late august early sept it will be running.

we have cheap power and lots of it.

biggest issue is cooling.

100 yesterday
  99 today
101 tomorrow
 i think all plus 96 til tues then an 89

I will try posting a few youtube videos. of both rooms.