Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 9. (Read 9891 times)

They won't give you a coupon for buying it or they won't let use the previous coupons you got from the $1900 deal.?




The difficulty is still pretty much the same 113.65 last night vs 113.66 today.

The last time we had >10% increase was back on 2021-05-13, we had a  21.53% jump which was followed by 4 consecutive drops

-15.97 %
-5.30%
-27.94%
-4.81%

So maybe this time we see something similar? 21% gave us 4 drops, so 13% gives us 2 drops?

I see a 100th pro for 1950 and no coupon.

I will pass on it.

The $1900 S19 pro deal is back in stock if you or anyone else is interested.

Meanwhile, difficulty looks even worse than it did a few days back


With 1.5 days left, it's almost certain we will get a 13-14% jump for this epoch, this is pretty huge, to say the least.

@ stompix

If you have overheating issues in the summer

getting gear back online is real easy when the weather cools off.

Our asic room has summer heat issues.

25 s17pro's set to low speed means 25 x 42  = 1.05 ph

same gear set to medium means 25 x 52 = 1.30 ph this is a 23.8% jump in hash in under an hour time.



same gear set to turbo means 25 x 58 =  1.45 ph  have to wait for theater under 40f and hash jump 10% more.





Here in the north east New Jersey ,USA we are now running our s17pro's on "normal" not low and hash went up quite a bit in under a day.


Yeah we also ordered more s19pro's still waiting for a ship date maybe next week

Collective efforts my friend, while 10% might seem big, it was due, doesn't really matter if 1 million gear come online in 10 days or 20 days, not much of a difference, we just know they are coming, of course, the 12% for this epoch will most likely reflect in the next epoch, i.e, we won't have another huge jump, so let's just get used to an average loss of 5-10% a month for at least a few months to come.

Meanwhile, Russia is supplying Kazakh miners with cheap power , so let's not be surprised by future jumps now that we have both the Americans and the Russians mining BTC like there is no tomorrow.


Phill: those Avalons are pretty bad quality, the Chinese resellers sell them for nearly half the price listed on the website, I saw a post for used ones at 12$ per th for the A1266 model, it doesn't seem like there is enough people wanting to buy those, it's probably because of both efficiency and quality.

So we are 1 full day ahead after only 7.35 days of mining

7.35 x 144 = 1058 we are at 1219

This is what I mean by hashrate manipulation.

I feel 10-20eh was held offline  for all of the summer.

It is now being added along with s19 xp gear getting shipped to the big boys

The good thing is we are approaching staturation much like we did in Oct/Nov 2018.

A 6 cent miner with 38 watt gear say an Avalon 1246

3400 watts and 88th

88 x  8.03 = $7.06

82 kwatts at 6 cents = 4.92 cost
82  "            7 cents = 5.74 cost
82  "            8 cents = 6.56 cost


now a 12% jump means it will earn $7.06 x .88 = $6.21

So almost every Avalon will be under water in 5 days.

now to be fair

my 100th s19 pro does 2900 watts say 70 kwatts

100 x 8.03 = $8.03 soon to drop to $7.06

70 x   6 cents = $4.20
70 x   7 cents = $4.90
70 x   8 cents = $5.60
70 x   9 cents = $6.30
70 x 10 cents = $7.00

this is a big edge

I guess it is why Avalon has really dropped prices.
I like their gear more than bitmain's gear.
But top of the line Avalon is this

https://shop.canaan.io/products/canaan-avalon-miner-a1246-96t?VariantsId=10001

best 1246

3420 watts and 96 th = 35.6 watts


https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220919144041252Ua2SetxW06D3
Bitcoin Miner S19 Pro
100th and 2950 watts

1900 with a 30% coupon and  wait for it:

sold out

the bitmain sold out in 3 days it actually was a good deal. it should ship in 7-17 days.

I wonder what Avalon will do since its best unit is a 35.6 watt machine. listed above.

Well, it's not that I was having a solid clue the times before, I was still just making predictions because I felt like this thing or that thing should happen, but right now it's zero, I can't even picture a scenario of my own, I feel there is a huge mess right now that will only go bigger till finally in some way things will start being even remotely predictable again.
This 10% is one of them, I know we could blame it on people restarting gear (it's the beginning of October so a highly convenient date), Bitmain&co delivering, but still that much power back online just like that in a matter of days? A huge on/off switch?  And the price, damn this price, all over the place just because it can. No, at this point I can't even think of a scenario before I find 10 things to dispose of it myself.

As for hopium, I have some of my own right now, rain is coming back to Europe, so is wind, the Rhine is fully navigable so coal is being shipped, France is restarting nuclear powerplants, the gas deposits are nearly full, so:

These are the prices for €/MWh, on Monday, 1st of August, just quoting a few on top of the list:
🇦🇹 Austria      431.65
🇧🇪 Belgium        399.86
🇧🇬 Bulgaria   417.52
🇨🇿 Czechia      427.33
🇩🇪 Germany   424.62
🇪🇪 Estonia      394.11

Here is October 3rd (Also Monday):

 🇦🇹 Austria      222.01
🇧🇪 Belgium      276.44
🇧🇬 Bulgaria   246.97
🇨🇿 Czechia      227.59
🇩🇪 Germany   213.21
🇪🇪 Estonia      270.03

I know for 101% of the miners that would look insane but the way prices have dropped, reaching for example just a little above 100E in Poland,  there is hope for under 100E/MWh continuously, so with a bit of luck, the chances of mining next year of 0.01% might become 0.03%   

Oh, nearly forgot, diff update:


F&^&%!!!! 

Honestly speaking, OPEC on its own wasn't doing great, but OPEC+ is doing just fine, see the thing is, you can't control something when you don't have all of it, or at least the majority of it, so ya, a few large miners alone won't be able to do it, but say 70% of them decide to stop adding hashrate, it will certainly work in their favor, call me crazy, but I suspect that pretty soon when all the med/small players are out of business, this whole mining industry will become something like Oil and Gas, maybe OBM (The Organization of Bitcoin Miners)



Oh come on, you are the only source of hopeium I know of, please don't stop your prediction about the price going up and difficulty going down, because even when I don't believe it, it still somehow makes me feel good, and as for being wrong or having no clue where things are going, isn't that normal? I assure you that most people know exactly nothing, personally, I have been at least 10 times wrong for every prediction that I had come true.

I was again like 99% sure it's not going to keep at 10% increase and damn, it's almost a week, and this keeps going.
About the US guys, I was again thinking it will show in the pool stats but somehow the move is not reflected there like totally clear, look who's getting more hashes,nothing, 1 month blocks vs 3 days:



If that 10% would be coming from the guys having 24 last period they would have right now about 30%, but it's nowhere here, and look like a  pretty fair distribution across pools, which makes me think some of them are actually directing a bit of their hashrate to other pools to keep down the fear of a monopoly or a possible 51%.
As for them coming to a decision on doing reasonable things, yeah that will work as much as OPEC is working right now.

But, at least we have a........happy mikeywith cause I will keep price and hash and other predictions to myself for a while  Oh, and it's fo real, not a joke, mainly because I have like zero ideas where things might go, zero!

and another day get us closer to 11.1% gain.



almost 94 blocks ahead times are very tough.

We are at 111.9% right now, this can't be "luck", it's real, maybe not sustained but a large increase is almost certain for this epoch.

The large U.S cors just keep "eating" their own profit, every gear they add cuts the profit of their previous gears, but nobody can stop because others are not willing to, imagine a scenario where those large players gather around a round table and decide to stop increasing difficulty, wouldn't that be more reasonable?

Meanwhile, the stock market had a terrible close below the low of June, so more likely than not, the general markets will take a large hit, and BTC will retest its June low's at 17.5k, hopefully, if this happens, some large players start hurting and stop with these massive shipments.

and it comes with a 30% off-coupon

would be nice to catch a 3600 price for a s19 xp take off 1080 and 2520 for the 140 unit.

---

---

current diff = ugh



It is early and  maybe the network is lucky

but 10.2% of  say 230 eh = 23 or 24 eh added on

that is  2,400 ph
or  2,400,000 th

or 24,000 of those 100 th s19 pros I just purchased.

hmmm  24,000 x 2080 that was my shipping to USA  a total of 49,920,000 pretend it all came to USA this means 30% import tax or 15 million import taxes.

If network does jump 10% diff will be close to 34.5t

earning per th drop to about 7 cents

so my 100 th machine
earns 7 bucks
burns 75kwatts a day so if

10 cent power   7.50    loser  of 50 cents a day
  9   cent power 6.75  winner of 25 cents a day
  8   cent power 6.00  winner of 1 dollar   a day
  7   cent power 5.25  winner  of  $1.75   a day
 
6   cent power 4.50  winner of   $2.75   a day >>>>>>

this number is the key we do not drop to negative at this number for most of all mining. 
For us to get here would traditionally mean we bottomed out.

Such a relief.


True, but you then that was 3k BTC vs 60k BTC, and it only happened after a few years, so not only would you make 3 times more profit by buying BTC, you wouldn't have to worry about storing them, shipping them, getting scammed by eBay buyers and everything else, the only way this would play out would be if difficulty went down, manufacturing gears is no longer a thing, then ya, but as long as none of that is happening, the gear will lose BTC value while holding BTC itself isn't.



Indeed he did, but that $3230 price is way off, the price for those gears is 19-20$ per TH elsewhere, the Pro is 24-25$ per TH.

well we put in the 260-280 kwatt solar array.

that adds 46-50kwatts 24/7/365

or 15-16 of those s19s

A bear has to do bear stuff 


I was half joking with that but only half, not that I would even plan on doing so but I remembered how used gear that was one step away from being sold at scrap metal prices suddenly become 5x more expensive than normal. Of course, I might get things wrong since at that time I wasn't mining and I wasn't following the pieces that close but didn't s9 spike from something like $75 to $500 and even over it?
But, as I said, I was half joking and 0 percent planning on doing it, but it was a fun thing thinking of!

I see Phil got lucky, the S19Pro are sold out,w what's left are the 95Th at $3230, meh!!!

PS
Also, just how much f^&^&^ spare power do you still have? 


When I go over reddit posts it starts to hurt my head from how much copium and denial some GPU miners are clinging to, people with tons of cards claiming not to sell because the next bull run will be here any moment, there were thousands making a few $ a day watching a video card mining and they simply can't let it go.
Magically someone will invent a new coin just so that they can make money again!

good luck doing this.

I have soooo very many paid for gpus.

I am like ugh now I sell need to be an ebay seller from now till jan.

There we go again 


Such a terrible idea, all mining gears lose BTC value over time, if one is confident that price will recover at one point, buying BTC directly is the best thing to do, however, I am also preparing for perhaps one last expansion this cycle, not because I think the markets are going to hit the sky tomorrow, but because I think we are close to the bottom than we were months ago, and I also think this side-ways action will still be there for months.

IMO, the best time to invest in mining gears is when buying BTC or even holding cash can't yield you anything, this is exactly what happens in a no-action market, like the one we have no and are about to have for months, while I do think we might still have one more leg to the downside, I chose not to try and time the market but rather DCA into the expansion, thankfully, I made good decisions before the collapse and expanded the infrastructure, because doing that now would be a terrible idea, so it's just about time.

So ya, I am shopping for mining gears now, just kind of hard to make up my mind, I know I want Whatsminers just can't decide on whether to risk buying used at nearly half the price or just get the new, the used ones are either M20s or M21s both which I have tested intensively and am very satisfied with, the new ones will be either M31s or M31s, I could possibly mix here and there but I hate to do that, I prefer to get the gear type so that I won't be needing many spares, just 1-2 PSUs, control boards and a couple of fans and then as the miners age, some of them will give you those spare parts for free, but either way, I should fill up the whole space by year-end one way or the other.

Well they chopped up the bull this cycle. Maybe it has been a huge game of sideways. Just a flat grind that pushes out anyone with 10 cent power.

With eth pulling 17-20 million a day out of the mining market . We may be seeing the big miners and no one else.

OBVIOUSLY there will be players like me smaller and nimble with very good power prices but we will be very rare exception.

I see mining leaving us as a good way to gain coins.

Oh, did I miss my chance of saying difficulty is going down, price is recovering above 20k, and everything is fine again?

I'm starting to think, if I'm facing 7c revenue per th a day, 0,75 kwh burned for each th/day, no real chance of difficulty going down enough to matter without the price also, this will be a game of who last longer, either due to the cost/profits or real breakdown of miners. Yes, I see Phil eager to get a new toy for his mining,I see others over Telegram,  but how many could still expand, and how many would take the risks of doing something significant in purchases?  And won't that make things even worse short term?

Yeah, I know, it's better to be ready when the bull market comes back than run after the cheap gear that is nowhere to be found when it happens, but right now I feel like the best way to profit would be to buy the miners, let them in their boxes and sell them as new once this bearish period is over.


I like to go back in time and read them, I'm just so eager to finally get to that state where you learn from past mistakes, but for me it ain't working no matter what 

So 2.13% drop, on the other side 6% drop in the past 24 hours for btc price, currently trading at 18.8k with no clear sign of any recovery, the war is escalating and everything is going south.

Meanwhile, while we are still way too early in this epoch, the current pace is 112%