Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 11. (Read 9687 times)

back to my idea of hash rate manipulation




looks like it to me.

but what do I know.

Heh it is fun to see even 2 blocks to go they get it wrong

Actual was 3.45%

Actual was 2022-09-13 19:29:06.929+00

Actual was 32045359565303.1

2 blocks to go




so +9.2 followed by +3.5

what is next? +6 is my guess

Down would only be turning off miners.
Otherwise it would be blatantly obvious since even 1% of bitcoin (over 2EH) would show a massive growth on any of the sha-256 scamcoins.

Thus powering off, you'd have to somehow affect the diff to overcome e.g. a day worth of mining 1/14 or 7% loss of income vs the power savings.

However, e.g. turning off 1EH for 1 day will only mean roughly a (1/220)/14 effect or 0.03% reduction on the following diff - which is pretty small.
So it would have to be a lot of EH and/or a lot of days to reduce the diff change by a noticeable amount.
e.g. 10EH powered off for 2days is still only roughly a (10/220)/(2/14) = 0.65% reduction.

Of course remember that all the sites that quote hash rates going up and down are mostly quoting block variance more than hash rate changes.

Less than a day at 3.5% up, and at most likely 32T we're going for a new ATH breaking through the last from May at 31,2.
Well, at least the price is also up.

As for the manipulation I agree with mikeywith, a manipulation down let's say would be possible for a few reasons although I have problems with that math on returns also but manipulation upwards? Is somebody getting gear and just plugging it in for a while to rise the hashrate and then throw the miners away? Nope.
And probably mid-October we're going to see another jump, if I remember correctly that was the time for the first s19xp hydro batch, and god knows how many of those were bought and how much they can squeeze out of them beyond factory specs.

What kind of manipulation are we talking about here? I think everything is going according to plan, I have been bullish on difficulty since the large U.S corps joined the game, I still am, those guys have access to a lot of money and very cheap power, why would they stop? it's safe to assume that they already control above 50% of the total hashrate, and they keep on growing, unless something catastrophic happens, this won't change until the halving hits.

Any difficult drop that may occur in the near future would be the result of non-U.S corps leaving, and will be wiped out by the new containers they keep dropping in the states, will they go on forever? of course not, but until something happens it's safe to assume that they will keep expanding.

I so get the feeling that we are seeing huge hashrate manipulation.

But what is it that I know.

Also hold on to your hats as eth merge is in 3-4 days and shit will be hitting the fan very soon.

Say a prayer for Mr V.B. soon to be a ?

It is very difficult to understand this market.

A) how much idle gear is sitting waiting to turn on I do not know.
B) how many were mining eth as it made big bucks but they are ready to switch to btc.
C) look at the lower avalon prices for US miners shop.canaan.io

If you have a prepaid power contract and had eth eth eth do you buy a ton of cheap avalons?

https://shop.canaan.io/products/avalon-miner-a1166-pro-81t-3400w?VariantsId=10012

81 th for 1337 no import tax just shipping from Texas> We have 40kwatts of eth that would be 12 of these. Do I get 12 of these?

that would be 12 x 81 = 972 th which is  972 x .0832 = $81 usd a day. at the moment the eth+etc is clearing 200 a day

So do I chase and buy 16000 in avalons  takes 200 days to get back that 16000.

remember my power is paid off till dec 2023.

do I sit and take reduced income on the gpus. no cash outlay.

we are at a standstill as to our next moves.

what is in our favor is zero debt.
lots of extra cheap power.

I will wait til the sept 12-14 date and see what happens when 22-25 million of gross income is pulled out of the mix.

“next 12 days years are critical.”  

Right after the jump, we were again at 103% over and I thought no, this ain't going to happen but better keep my mouth shut as whenever I open the opposite happens, right now we're at 97.5% so maybe maybe...

As for the ETH thing, If I were to go full bear mode I would think of it like this, lot of power and buildings and contracts that suddenly instead of splitting $20m are going for a single one:


So of course a lot of them will simply have to stop and maybe switch to bitcoin mining, especially if they have all the above paid in advance so they could offer to host some miners. To be honest I know like 0.1% of the inner economy of GPU mining but even if I'm going to take the numbers from digiconomsit with a bag of salt there is a whole lot of power that was put into GPU mining
https://digiconomist.net/ethereum-energy-consumption/
But this does sound believable, the reward for them was


So that consumption makes sense as this is the upper limit to what miners can spend, which means a whole lot of should say opportunities(?) for ASIC owners who had to stop because of expensive energy to start again? Of course, the more I go with this the more complicated it gets and we have like zero clues about it, the only thing that might give us a hint would be increased activity on the use miners market (which I'm again out of touch with)

Speculations, speculation, but overall bearish on the outcome.

even 12 days to go

hmm this jump and the eth merge are due on the same day.


“next 12 days are critical.”

not sure who said that but the next 12 days will certainty be interesting.

I don't think so, my guess is that U.S large corps are only "playing" with BTC and they are the ones driving the difficulty against its "natural" direction where the other coins' difficulty is simply responding to the price drop and the overall profitability.

Since these prominent players are playing the game "professionally" and use the most efficient gears, it would take them months if not years to react to the pain, whereby all the other smaller coins are mainly mined by small guys who can't sustain operations at a low profit.

My prediction is that the large U.S corps will continue to grow at the expense of smaller miners leaving, which would somehow slow down the inevitable increase of difficulty, eventually, the market won't have enough room for all of the large U.S corps and then it will become all about "the survival of the fittest".

That whole picture I painted above would vanish if we somehow started another bull market and expanded the size of the room to fit everyone, I think all the misery that we could expect for the rest of this year and 2023 will only be enough to hurt the small guys, the event that really matters would be the halving of 2024. if the markets don't recover pretty well before that hits, many of those large corps will fall.

 

Interestingly enough LTC difficulty did a 6% drop the other day and it looks like it's going to have another 4% drop next.
Some of the other alts have also seen drops over the last week to 10 days.

Makes you wonder if what we spoke about earlier in the year, that there are a lot of mines that are power constrained, so they have to pick and choose what to mine when.

in the end the bouncing price / difficulty might actually be good if it eventually forces some of these mines that are running on borrowed / VC to shut down.

-Dave

Almost there........


BTC price: $20,357.  This is clearly going to "sting".

They are likely the s19 pro hydros, those do about 200th at 27w/TH stock settings, so squeezing an extra 45th at 23w/th seems very reasonable given how much the stock settings suck.

Imagine what the xp hydros custom setting can do.

I was referring to this one:


23k/2.7 was happiness, 20k/31 is not as bad, and 17.5k/35 is run for the hills I guess.


I went to that video to get depressed and, what a surprise, It might be even worse than that, 20MW of hydros being plugged in and the site expanding.
One thing that I don't get is, those are not s19 XP but standard model, at 210 of them get 52Ph at 1.45MW, so that's 247Th per unit at 5.8KW, do they squeeze this from a $4k machine?

How bad did i say it was going to be? Please link my post i am on my phone got some issues with my pc.

Anyway, look at this https://youtu.be/8QZAGpssUe0

The big boys have started to play with thier hydro gears, i need to revisit my last prediction and add a bit of more salt on it.

And it keeps growing, #^%&!!!


Not as bad  , as Mikeywith was saying, at 23k and 2.7 that was still happiness level, this is not as bad as it has been level, I have to prepare myself for the just as bad and even worse levels. 220Exa and BTC at 20k you get 8 cents, 17.5k, and the same hash we're down to 7c, at which point I don't see anyone powering up more gear, I want to believe that if we touch even 19k there will be a reversal, even an XP with free energy is giving 11$ a day, who is going to buy more stuff?

Yeah this is texas firing up as it has cooled greatly.

I see us doing 2 large jumps.


Lets pretend we go to a diff of 31 then a diff of 33

So on sept 15 or so we are at 33.

Lets argue that 1th earns 8 cents when this happens.

so a 100 th unit earns 8 usd

it burns 3.4 x 24 = 82 kwatts rounded up.

so  power cost

10 cent = 8.20 loser  10 cent miner a loser with best gear is not new we may be here sept 15
  9 cent = 7.38 tiny profit maybe break even
  8 cent = 6.56 $1.44 profit maybe $0.90 since gear breaks and cooling
  7 cent = 5.74 $2.26 profit maybe $1.80 "        "
  6 cent = 4.92 $3.08 profit maybe $2.60 "        "



All above are estimates they mean we are no where as bad as fall of 2018 when 6 cent power meant a very small profit.

Well past the half-way point and blocks are getting mined plenty fast!


Unfortunately BTC price has now fallen back to $20,139. If this continues, this will "sting" in less than 4 days.

Yeah I see 30.?  this next jump
then I see 32.?  jump after.