Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 20. (Read 9677 times)

With almost half the blocks in this epoch are yet to be mined, it's more likely than not that we end up with a +, also MicroBT are releasing their M50 beasts, the basic M50 does
114TH at 29w/th, while the S version does 126TH and consumes only 26w/th, orders for the general public will be in Q4 according to them, which means, some "lucky" folks have probably already gotten their hands on a few thousands of these mega miners.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator



around ½ the way -1.6%  with coins floating near 43k

Q3 this year is just about accurate based on most articles I read, however, Intel is shipping out just the chips, the actual finished product is made by whoever gets their hands on those chips, kind of a long shot from here, but they will eventually get there and start making things even worse for the rest of us.


It's fairly easy to be ready for 80k BTC, it's not like we need to do anything in preparation for that event  , what we need to be prepared for however is a potential dip to 20k with difficulty rising on the other hand, I know these scenarios are unlikely to happen, but it's always a great idea to keep them in mind.

well i feel we could simply rise to 77-88k in 45days time and then stay in a prolonged 60-95k slot.

if so I am ready fo it.

As usual, the difficulty estimator goes down at the start of the period, only to slowly crawl back up, now we have the price go down, rinse and repeat.


Or we should call it the mole movement, comprehensible adjusted TA here:

good numbers so far

well we were at about 41k at the start and are at about 45k now or a 95 price jump

and a 3.7% diff jump.  so not terrible.


its early now so lets see what happens.

Well another epoch completes. Looks like it was about +3.7% increase in difficulty. Unfortunately BTC price was unable to hold and have now fallen back to $45,706.

we stumbled a bit to +4% which is better than +6%

price is 42.4k

lots of time

---

so just about 4% and 46.7k nice

lets see what the next 500 blocks do for us.

They will keep operating even if one S19 will be making 1 cent in profit per day, that's their main advantage and that's why I really don't like how the future is shaping for the little miners. Most of those investors throw money at everything, they are not like us who can't put 1% in mining gear, 1% in oil 1% in some electric car company and still make it work, if the whole investment goes boom they will write it off as a failure and focus on the others. The US has billions if not trillions to throw at the most useless stuff out there, this one was from the start of a risky business so I don't think they will have too many emotions while delivering the news about bankruptcy.

The bigger problem is that before these guys enter collapse they will take out a lot of the little guys unless you have free power if a drop happens you have no choice but to shut down, you can't really compete with them, although even with 20k I'm still ok, the gear is still barely profitable (I think/hope), but if we also see a 30% increase in difficulty by that time is definitely shutdown time for me, and finally, there will be cheap gear on the markets!!


When the markets recovered after the crash at the start of the war I really thought for a moment (contrary to my previous belief) we will see a real FOMO with people throwing money without caring of anything and maybe know knows a new ATH, but seems like there is simply no momentum.
I always thought that crises are not good for anything, and I doubt worse times than we have now will be somehow better for bitcoin.

Or maybe BTC goes to 70k+ and the bull is back.

We need a third market name crab

bear-crab-bull

bear = down
crab = sideways
bull = up

Yup, those U.S large players don't play around, while everyone is busy with all the shit going on in the world they are adding exa hashes worth of hashrate faster than we are adding tera hashes, it looks like 300EH this year isn't too far fetched, I can't imagine what is going to happen if BTC price takes another huge hit and drop to 20k or so, what will these companies say to their investors? I assume the money they are spending isn't theirs, so how is it going to be?

ugly. +6%

So -0.35% after seeing -4% somewhere in the middle of the last epoch, despite the war and gas prices difficulty managed to stay almost, we know that there is a good possibility that a large number of mining farms in Ukrian had to shut down, but it seems that the large U.S players compensated with the gears they keep bringing online.

Well we are moving close to 0%





So even if the Ukraine lost gear other places added gear.


we are closing in on next jump.

Almost at zero.



1997 and closer to 0%

maybe we get it to -0.20%

41k is good

I have serious problems believing somebody would manage to get nearly 200k S19s worth 1.7 billion without anyone knowing and then having them set in an area that has been near an active conflict zone from 2014. 17k, that could be somehow believable but 10 times that? No way. With all the filming there, all the documentation everything we would either get reports from the mine itself or from a convoy of trucks carrying that equipment out of there.

Besides:

We're powering up a bit despite the price being again below 40k.

And also, if Ukraine had 8.6% in that region alone, it would destroy every estimate we had so far of where this damn hashrate is coming from.

Maybe there is a large mine or two that has been shut down.

Or many mines are off line due to the attack on the large Nuclear Power Plant

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-04/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-attack-what-is-putin-thinking


this power plant does 5700MW

say 10% or 570 mw is mining spread about the country that would be 172000 s19's
or 17200 ph or 17.2eh eh that Is around  8.6% of a 200eh network

kind of matches that the power plant is off line. Maybe?

So a -1.49% drop, we're one day into it and a 95.23% pace right now.
I didn't expect it to actually drop, not with those prices and I obviously don't see a 5% drop coming this period either, one quick look gives me at least a 25% up in revenue from the lowest we experienced, so no point going even further down.
Of course, it could be that Kzaschatn thing with the miners, it could be some mining farms in Ukraine, some higher than usual prices making old gear shut down, but others are still getting gear in the millions.

Either way, shitty times.


Tomorrow I'll have to take a trip to check those miners, the air conditioner I put there as last hope to cool something in case of emergency has started twice last night because of humidity levels, wonder why...
Do you guys actually actively monitor RH levels in your buildings, or it's just me going overboard?

and the new jump is done






so diff dropped from 27.96t to 27.55t

price is up a bit.

the Russia vs Ukraine war is still on.

maybe this ends soon. With things going back to normal rather than Russia going old school and declaring martial law against it protesters. I read in yahoo that Russia may cut off the internet not sure were the world is going but maybe cooler heads prevail.

Do you want to know why?
The sad but still real truth, because the war was not at our doorsteps, that's it.

You see all those countries putting Russia on sanctions, they didn't care about Syria, they don't care about Yemen and one can be sure they don't care what China does with its minorities. But now, war is here, right on our borders, a war that was feared for 70 years and a war that looks like a xerox copy of the 1938-1939 events, and nobody wants this to happen again, not when both sides have nukes.
Just how I would understand a guy from Brazil or Botswana not giving a rat's ass about Europe right now is the same thing the opposite way.

Everyone will put its own interest and its own family and nation first, if China and India and Vietnam will become superpowers and the world will spin around them nobody will care about Europe and suddenly one man killed at the border in Bangladesh will be more important than 13 soldiers on a rocky island.


Not the first time
It was Austria, Sudetenland, Bohemia, Moravia, Lithuania, Danzig, Poland, and then boom, Paris. 

Anyhow, it's really a messy discussion here.
Where do we draw a line between bitcoin and activities that rely on it as a source of income from it or activities that support the chain?

For a CEX is simple, they are a business, they have KYC they every regulation.

What should a miner do when it knows a transaction is coming from a darknet wallet, a hack, some foreign agency, or a mixer?
Should we try to police the chain based on our feelings? Let tx flow to Ukraine and what do we do with the ones going to NK? I think total neutrality on this would be better, after all, nobody gains from the direct transactions, we're just moving the money around, the problem lies in how he got it and how he will spend and that's not our business.

But on mining, what if Rusia decided to actually rely on BTC (I don't believe it one bit) and simply subsidies all mining activity, leaving miners with half of a cent per kWh traffic,  should we consider this as an attack, a tentative takeover or, see it as a natural event?

Things that look simple are always way more complicated than we like.

To change the gloomy atmosphere a bit:
Diff down -3, price up 15%.