Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 23. (Read 9920 times)

not sure why we dropped off but



we lost 3 blocks more off pace and are doing  this 20% of the jump so far

I would love to see us at -37 blocks on Tuesday

I know some think otherwise but I don't see this possible.

It's easy to think as such thing possible as one might immediately draw a line with oil mining but it's not really the case, and one tiny difference is crucial. If the profitability goes beyond 1$/th, even poeple in Japan would be able to mine at a profit, if oil goes to 1000$/barrel you will still not see oil wells in Japan, for obvious reasons.
In the oil industry, you can cut production to increase the price, in mining, cutting production will simply let room for others to mine.

Let's play with this scenario, see a portion of the hash, like 100S19s as a representative, and the bad guys controlling 50% of it.

And S19 gets you 22$, so the bad guys get 1100$ and they burn at 4c/kwh 150$ of power, net profit 950$.
They decide to disable 10% of the total (20% of their own), so they have 40 S19, making 24.5 each, total revenue 980$, electricity costs 120, profit 860$. Worth it? Nope. Let's consider that the cost with the wages and rent are the same the profit goes down way faster.

Besides, two things
How do you suppress the rate? You buy gear you plug it and then take it offline?
Isn't keeping a lower difficulty making mining more attractive and thus making more people add more gear?


The consumption of energy is dictated by the price of the energy and the block reward.
If we have BTC going to 400k, the reward will also do a 10x but you don't have enough gear to make that 10x rise in consumption in the first place, and secondary you will not find 10x electricity at under 5 cents, demand and offer in the electricity market will take over, rising the costs and making mining less profitable, dropping down consumption. And till that happens we have another halving  

Back to the difficulty, is this the 3rd time in a row we're seeing a huge drop in blocks just at the start of the epoch?


Is this caused by riot?
https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-miner-in-texas-shuts-down-99-of-operations-as-winter-storm-approaches

Does anyone think that the big mining players might be playing with their hash rates to limit difficulty growth? If the difficulty keeps growing then the energy used by the mining industry also goes up which is overall unsustainable. Eventually we should want to see a stabilization of the difficulty and the price so that BTC could be used more like a currency rather than a gold replacement. Also so that the network’s energy consumption could be optimized and eventually reduced. I think part of the reason we are seeing bans in some countries is their base energy load could be better used towards improving quality of life for their citizens instead of some non-resident miner.

I think its better to buy efficient gear, even with cheap electricity like yours. You will certainly be able to mine longer in case of price fall/diff growth and the equipment itself will hold value for longer time. When those s9 become unprofitable at 6c, not much people would find them useful (except someone with free electricity), which will eventually make them worthless. With an s17 however, you will be able to mine longer or sell it.

Hmmm no-one knows 24 months from now.

last 13 months we grew 43 %   but  April 2021 to now we grew 3%

You can try long range numbers for diff  growth but it is hard to say in 12 months we will grow 40% or 30 % or 50 %

You can do 3 or 4 guesses for 24 months of diff growth

say 25% 50% and 75%
or 25% 50% 75% and 100%

You can mix your gear as you add it.

add 3 s9 and 1 s17 today

or add 6 s9 and 2 s17 and 1 s19

or add 6 s9 and 2 s17 and pre pay ⅓ for a s19 xp

all cases above are losers unless btc whales.




and we are 35 blocks off pace which combined with the price jump is nice.

but only 219 into this jump.  we need wait to see if we drop off more.

Right now Antminer S9 in decent condition is available locally. I have some, but considering getting more. I am saving up for a M30S or S17 running somewhere around 40 W/Th. Used S17 prices seems to hover around 55 USD per Th and Whatsminer about 80 USD (but warranty included).

S9 is about 20 USD per Th.

Trying to use braiins insight to make a decision.

Given 2 years investment horizon:
Setup 1:
50 % difficulty increase every year.
50 % price increase every year.
Hodl all.
6c power (2c power. 4c taxes and expenses)(expected to stay at same level in next years)

Scenario 1: Buy 6x S9: 1800 USD
Hashrate: 90 Th
Power: 7200 W

@24 months: 0.211 BTC
Power cost: 7560 USD power cost
Average cost of production 36294 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 7600, IRR =940%

Scenario 2: Buy 1x S17 pro 59th: 3400 USD
Hashrate: 90 Th
Power: 2900 W

@24 months: 0.139 BTC
Power cost: 2424 USD
Average cost of production 17604 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 8800 USD, IRR=490%


Different setup:
Setup 2:
50 % difficulty increase every year.
100 % price increase every year.

Scenario 1 with S9 now :
@24 months: 0.211 BTC
Net profit: 17200 USD, IRR =2000 %

Scenario 2 with S17 pro now:
@24 months: 0.139 BTC
Net profit: 16600 USD, IRR=950 %


Different setup:
Setup 3:
100 % difficulty increase every year.
50 % price increase.

Scenario 1 with S9s now:
@24 months: 0.169 BTC
Power cost: 7560 USD
Average cost of production 50337 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 3700 USD, IRR=640%

Scenario 2 with S17 pro now:
@24 months: 0.111 BTC
Power cost: 2424 USD
Average cost of production 24529 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 6300 USD, IRR=400%

I am planning to invest in mining equipment in the next years, but the prices right now for efficient gear are very high. Will we see another crypto winter? Will bitcoin spike and every piece of old mining gear suddenly be valuable again? Will difficulty growth outpace price growth? If mining becomes tough (and difficulty decreases) and bitcoin price increases - S9 investment will be better than saving for more efficient gear.

What are the best predictions with regard to difficulty development in the short term?

Well buying coin vs mining are a different tax animal in the USA.

I am not against buying coin.
In fact I mine eth to have the ability to buy BTC and cash to fiat while I leave the btc I mine alone.

I hold 25x btc value over eth Value.

Simple reason is not because BTC is the first coin it is most diverse mineable coin spread around to many hands. and ETH is not that way.

But asic mining of btc has been weakened two fold. LN network has made BTC staking a reality and it cuts into the asic miners of btc fees. Will it kill mining down the road? maybe when blocks drop to  0.09765 btc in 23 years the harm of LN to asic mining of BTC will be obvious. Also eth being around as a pow maybe end.  The next 2-10 years should be a blast.



I am older 65. So  23 years from now I would be 88 and very likely not care as much as I do now. Would be nice to be about 35 right now You would have a shot at see btc 50 anniversary and 75th anniversary.

2059 I would be 102 based on family history no one got to 100 I think 99 for 1 great aunt.
2049 I would be   92 based on family history 1 out of 100+ men reached this age.
2039 I would be   82 based on family history this could happen.

So for me in 4-7 years I will shop mining and sell my share of the business to my partners.

Peering into long range difficulty numbers = really hard and kind of pointless.

 Edit : pointless for me.  Just me and the wife no kids.

And at the 574 days (20 months) the graphics cards will be worth more on the secondary market then the
At the 962 day point (32 months) although the miner MAY be worth something, odds are it's not worth much.
With Covid / chip shortage / everything else we are in a different situation now, but you really can't count on it to continue for another 30+ months.
Even if BTC triples and the miners are worth more money and are paid off quicker buying BTC outright is still a better deal.

-Dave

This is my chart showing btc hashrate (in black, left side scale) and USD/KWh rev (different colors, right side scale) for common mining equipment:
https://i.imgur.com/XqyMJqw.jpeg
Same chart, but showing BTC/KWh rev:
https://i.imgur.com/2G7Rocq.jpeg

1. Its significantly more efficient to mine eth, in usd/kwh rev (data since 22th nov 2021):

min s19	max s19
0.2064791667	0.4282730586
min 3080	max 3080
0.5406816123	1.35386456

which shows between 2.6 - 3.2 times more efficient to mine with common gpu (nvidia 3080) than common asic (s19 pro).

2. The drop in rev is bigger for eth mining (data since 22th nov 2021):
Ratio in usd/kwh

min s19	max s19	% drop
0.2064791667	0.4282730586	51.78796272
min 3080	max 3080	% drop
0.5406816123	1.35386456	60.06383294

And possibly more important ratio in btc/kwh

min s19	max s19	% drop
0.000006233333333	0.0000075178571436	17.08630245
min 3080	max 3080	% drop
0.00001585144928	0.00002356702899	32.73887309

If we add up pros and cons we get that mining eth is cheaper gear, more profitable, less noisy, more reliable. While mining btc is more stable rev.

If I was a big player I would go eth all the way, but the problem we didn't mention is eth 2.0. I guess we can't know for sure when it will happen, but gpu mining rev is going down after this, no doubt. Yes, there are other coins to mine, but lets face it, none of it is even close to eth.

One scenario of eth 2.0 aftermath could be:
- gpu mining rev going down 5-10x
- btc mining rev starting to tumble downwards much more than now, since now big players are going all in on btc
- near apocalyptic sell off of gpus

All this if prices stay relatively stable, or stable against each other. If eth 2.0 further delays for lets say a year, even the next halving will be near and comes in to play. Wild.
   
   

I know this is BTC exclusive. I have some leeway and do allow some other coin talk .  But I see a real disconnect between all asics for all coins and for gpus.

Think business and here goes. You want anonymous btc to a blind address.

So Buyer a buys a s19 for 11000 I will skip all tax like usa of 35%.


and say a 105th s19 = $11000 and burns 3500 watts. that means 84 kwatts a day and 11k out of pocket. I will pretend bitmain gives a 6 month  good warranty with shipping to a place in your country (they do not)

so 105 x 18.89 cents =

 19.83 earned free power that is 555 days
 17.31 earned 3 cent power that is 635 days
 15.63 earned 5 cent power that is 703 days
 11.43 earned 10 cent power that is 962 days

look at gpu's

I can get the pny rtx a4000 for 1111 real and true 3 year warranty
Buy 9 of them for 9999
Buy a server case for 1200
cost of 11199

burns 1400 watts or 34 kwatts

earns 22.88 a day free power  this is 489 days to paid off
earns 21.86  a day 3 cent power this is 512 days to paid off
earns 21.18 a day 5 cent power this is 528 days to paid off
earns 19.48 a day 10 cent power this is 574 days to paid off

and a real 3x 365 = 1095 day warranty


So If you are pitching a 1 million dollar setup to a businessman

Do you think he will invest in BTC gear or in GPU's


This is a real issue for BTC miners vs gpu miners.

look at that 5 cent dynamic

11000 for  btc asic   703 days to break even only 180 day warranty
11199 for gpu           528 days to break even with a 1095 day warranty.

and I left out

noise = asic worse
heat = asic more
wiring = asic more
tax = in usa asic is 35% more than the 11k I put in.

this is a relentless pressure that has lasted all of 2021 and part of 2022

btc diff 1-1-21 = 18.5
btc diff 2-4-22  = 26.6 

growth is 26.6/18.5 = 1.43x


eth diff 1-1-21 =  3.74
eth diff 2-4-21 = 12.35

growth is 12.35/3.74 = 3.30x

this is a serious issue for BTC and it may resolve this year.

Not sure how it will :

does btc take off
does eth crash

or

does eth take off and pass btc



enough about eth diff growing way more than btc diff from a business viewpoint it makes sense to math shows it should continue.


so factor of 3.30 eth diff growth vs 1.43 btc diff growth 

over last 13 months

if you mine track this it is important.

You make perfect sense, I do not understand the logic behind buying gears at such prices, it is either they do not understand shit or they know something we don't.

Clearly when gear prices fall only 10% and btc price falls 50% while diff keeps rising, you are better of just buying btc.

And us smaller players are our own worst enemy. Whatever they sell at whatever price, even if the price does not make sense we buy it.
We have seen Bitmain selling overpriced crap and with the current pricing, for most people buying BTC at the price now of $38000 is a better investment then buying a S19j pro at $11000. Even allowing for $0.03 you still have a better deal buying BTC. But we keep buying the miners....

So the difficulty keeps climbing.

-Dave

so +0.1777%  not bad.

still means a new all-time high of 26.69t  vs 26.67t

@stompix

I am glad you you did not think I was so mean.

Difficulty did enter positive zone, we are 3 blocks ahead, only a few blocks to go and we should hit a small 0.1% - 0.2%.

The big boys have the newest mining models and somewhat a cheap power rate, it is still a long way to go for any of them to slow down, we need btc to hit 10k for them to start feeling the pain.

If that does not happen then even 2x difficulty will not slow them down, maybe some U.S new laws regarding mining will hit them somehow?  If that does not happen, we are screwed.

still very flat

@mikeywith
I knew it, was just funny as I only saw it when I read it the second time, not even thought for a moment it was intentional. 

The difficulty is almost as flat as pancake (not the ones I make).

99.72% and 18hours to go, 5 blocks behind, one lucky draw and we might see another 0.1% each way.
Despite the price being still at ~36k I still think of this as a much-needed breather, things were really going downhill fast, 30% drop in revenue , meh!This chart is really depressing:



Been browsing a bit through press releases, everyone talks about new miners, new operations, and I smiled when I realized they all use the term "sustainable bitcoin mining" for either operation or company to describe themselves. Wonder how many of them are sweating while reading their own statement. They do have cheaper power, they do play with other people's money but in the end, if you return 1 cent to 100$ it's not going to end nice.

Lol that did sound mean i suppose, i missed a small (NOT) in that sentence.

Well the pace is at 99.5% , we could get a flat or a small positive increment, but the speed at which the recent blocks were found suggests we hit a large positive in the next epoch.

fairly uneventful in terms of diff.

A -1% would be nice and maybe a nice upwards candle the day of the next change

If we drop to 26.2  it would still be over last Aprils high of 25.2

I pay 24c at home... it was nice to be able to run some miners at home at a profit for a while, but I never expected it would last long. I have the power to run maybe 20kw at home but would have had to do some work to get ventilation and noise suppression so decided not to bother even though I had miners sitting idle. Not even profitable to run a S17pro on low power mode now, so now I have to run at a loss to test out miners/hashboards after repair.

Finally seeing some drop in gear prices, but not much. I guess everyone expects the price to rebound back above 50k soon...

Over half way there and still in negative adjustment terrirory.

My home is 13.8 cents in the winter. but the heat is worth 3/4 cents so  from now until May 1 I would say I pay 10 cents.

I can do 3x 30amp circuits, about 15kwatts in my garage but even when it is 20f or -6.667 c

it is too hot to run 15kwatts. I am doing 5 kwatts right now say 5 x 720 = 3600 about  $504 in power and I save 100 or so in heating bill so 400 for the mine in the house.

It is a mix of btc and eth. and I am about breakeven in the house,  Mostly due to more $$$ per watt for the eth.

The big farm in Clifton is the key to my profits.

I am a  much better rate than 46 cents. In my house 14 adjust to 10 til may 1.