Topic: 2022 Elliott Wave - page 3. (Read 2287 times)

The current short-term expectation is the market may have already bottomed around $30K, or may revisit the $30K zone again as a double-bottom, or decline further to $28K or $25K zones. Sub $25K starts to require a reassessment of the entire long-term roadmap. The most optimistic short-term Elliott Wave count at the moment would be as follows: https://i.ibb.co/4fRzPHJ/btc.png
 

Thankfully it didn't reach that 25k levels, nor anything under as far as I have seen anywhere. I know it is not a terrible deal if it reached there, but it is certainly not ideal to be there neither. Which is why I do not think that all those "doomsday" scenarios will not happen.

We already see a shot back above 30k very easily, didn't take long to do that, and I am not guessing anything marginal will happen neither, it will be quite boring to be fair. It will just slowly go back to 40k from here, or at least that's what I hope. With all the movements in the last days, with the prices hitting back to great levels, what does elliot wave say about the future?

Yes correct, currently expecting the equity indices to resume the bull market and head towards all-time highs by the US elections in Nov, perhaps sooner. Will revise and reconsider expectations if the S&P500 declines to 3500 zone.

Ah interesting indeed.

My (wholly unscientific) pulse on investor sentiment and expectations are that some ~45% believe we'll see a bear market rally (aka dead cat bounce / bull trap) followed by new lows, 45% think we're going directly to new lows, and ~10% expect a trend reversal eventually onto new highs. From your EW count it seems you are part of this 3rd (highly contrarian) group - is that accurate?

Yes, it does appear that the equity indices may have bottomed; latest Elliott Wave counts here: https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/2022/05/14/2022-may-14/
 

Seems like this week will be an inflection point in traditional markets and as it were, transitively for Bitcoin. I personally believe there will be a trend reversal and am targeting 4200 (+/- 50) on the S&P by EOD Friday. Let's see.

In the Elliott Wave model, a complete market cycle sees a higher degree Wave-2 retrace back to the prior lower degree Wave-4, see here: https://i.ibb.co/7bsCnph/ew.png

In regards to Bitcoin, the prior degree Wave-4 is PRIMARY[4] low around $3100. Also, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the entire cycle is around $1680.
  

why do you draw CICLE II for $1700,
when in another post you talked about -90%, what is +7000$?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58906541

Actually, the Total Crypto Marketcap chart may suggest the doomsday Elliott Wave count. The final fifth wave (JUN-2021 to NOV-2021) clearly unfolded in a 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive structure which isn't so apparent or present on BTC/GBTC charts...

Total Crypto Marketcap: https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/05/20220510-total.png

I would like you to analyze the total crypto marketcap better than looking only at btc. If you check the Total cap chart it's so obvious that the first wave starts in 2015 at around 4 billions and for this reason the end of the first cycle wave 1 will end around 2026 with market cap around 33 trillions. Sorry I can't post charts to show you

The doomsday Elliott Wave count may begin to be considered if BTC declines below $25K and/or if GBTC declines below $17.40...

If you check Bitcoin chart on CME there is a huge gap to be filled between 24/25k. So going down very quickly I mean a scam wick to that level then back up again to start the uptrend

@xxxx123abcxxxx: do you see any valid EW count where APR-2021 (or NOV 2021) could be the top of the PRIMARY[5] wave?
If it does exist, do you think it is less probable than the count you are considering currently?

Thank you for your time and input.

Impossible to predict the future entirely. If one could, then there would be no free will..!

No forecast is omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent. As new data arrives and events unfold, the situation is required to be reassessed and revised.

Elliott Wave provides potentialities based on current and historical metrics. And based on those metrics, the most probable scenarios are anticipated within a theory of rules. A roadmap is devised, but the route and journey can take many twists & turns, be delayed or hurried. And of course, one's interpretation of the theory of rules could be flawed.

The current long-term anticipation is expecting the bull market to resume imminently, unfold in five waves, and perhaps conclude by 2023, with a price target of either $136K, $220K or $380K. As and when the waves develop, either extend or truncate, revisions are required.

The current short-term anticipation is expecting the market to have already bottomed around $30K, or decline further to $28K or $25K zones —all based on Fibonacci derivations as illustrated on the second chart. Sub $25K starts to require a reassessment of the entire long-term roadmap.
 

What's the point of changing the chart everyday? Last post says Uptrend starts from $42k and now this post says the price to come to 0.618 i.e. $25k.
This ain't Elliot if you changing it every month lol.

The rules which are in discussion here are based on the Elliott Wave principle as interpreted by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost.

However, in the original writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, here are examples of commonly unknown observations and nuances...

—Parts of a wave-4 can actually overlap a wave-1, but the final leg of the wave-4 (i.e. wave-c in a Flat/Zigzag or wave-E in a Triangle) must not.
—Commonly in commodity and forex markets (perhaps crypto markets too?), a wave-4 wick can overlap a wave-1 wick, but candle bodies must not.
—In a Leading Diagonal or Ending Diagonal, wave-3 can actually be the shortest.
—In a Leading Diagonal or Ending Diagonal, wave-4 isn't required to overlap wave-1.
—In a Flat/ZigZag the final wave-C can actually be a three wave structure, but in this case, the final wave in wave-C must be five waves, and the overall structure labelled as a W-X-Y or A-B-C.

The above are such examples which are considered as blasphemy rule-breakers and are not discussed in the interpretations of Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost. However, are discussed in the early works and original writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, and often observed in 24hr markets like forex and commodities, and by extension perhaps crypto markets too.

Got it, W until June 2021.
A W is an a-b-c structure.


Wrong, there are no hybrid structures like ABY or WXC. W and Y are complexes, A and C are not.
Wave C is only impulse (5 waves) or diagonal, unless in a triangle but this is not the case. It's clearly written in the book, please check page 89.
Counting a C in 3 is going against the rules.
You count that W as a flat, so C should have 5 waves and no other options are allowed.

See sections 5.2 and 5.3 of the following: https://phantran.net/elliott-wave-theory-ewt/

The sideways move from APR-2021 to JAN-2022 is simply considered as a W-X-Y (a 3-3-3 Flat structure), called a Double. It does not require to be followed by another combinatory structure (i.e. making it a Triple), or be followed by a Triangle.

In regard to a A-B-C structure, only the final fifth within the wave-C is required to be five waves; i.e.

A(a-b-c)
B(a-b-c)
C(1-2-3-4-5) OR C(a-b-c(1-2-3-4-5))

If the latter option of C unfolds, then the structure may be considered as W-X-Y instead. This is commonly unknown, and usually occurs in commodity and forex markets. Can't recall where this was exactly discussed, but following reference may assist...

    R.N. Elliott's Masterworks: The Definitive Collection
    https://www.elliottwave.com/Book/RN-Elliotts-Masterworks

In regard to your illustration (i.e. https://ibb.co/1ZzG3M4): The entire structure; i.e. a short wave-A, an irregular wave-B, and long wave-C, is known as an Elongated Flat (see https://blog.hycmlab.com/elliott-waves-other-flat-patterns/). In regard to metrics, the relationship is a perfect (C = A * 2.618) Fibonacci extension: https://i.ibb.co/LPXXBzy/elongatedflat.png

In regard to the projections provided and speculated upon, indeed the illustrations portray structure and not time. Would not expect a lower degree correction to elapse longer in time than a higher degree correction. Hence would expect the sideways Flat correction from APR-2021 to JAN-2022 to have already completed, unless of course another scenario is underway.
  

Ok, you missed W-X-Y could also be a 3-3-5, with Y triangle



No mate, not "just nomenclature", this is crucial. A wave C can't be in 3, only Y (as 2nd impulse of a structure) can be in 3, at the same way as 1/3/5 waves can't be in 3.
W/X/Y = a-b-c/a-b-c/a-b-c OR a-b-c/a-b-c/a-b-c-d-e OR a-b-c/w-x-y/a-b-c OR a-b-c/w-x-y/a-b-c-d-e. That's all.
A/B/C = a-b-c/a-b-c/1-2-3-4-5 OR w-x-y/a-b-c/1-2-3-4-5 OR w-x-y/w-x-y/1-2-3-4-5. Final 1-2-3-4-5 can be changed with a-b-c-d-e. That's all.

Did you read in the book a C wave can be in a-b-c?




I mean this
https://ibb.co/1ZzG3M4

You see this part as a 3-3-3, waves here can be named only w-x-y (double three). Unless you can find a way of counting a 3-3-5, than it would be ok for an a-b-c (also w-x-y, if y triangle).
Assuming this part is a 3-3-3=w-x-y (= A only, not W), after a following B we need a 5 wave pattern. But the second impulse 20 Oct '21 to 24 Jan '22 is counted in 3. There is something wrong here.



Previously you said:

Indeed we don't have fixed laws for the time variable (e.g. "a 3 wave can't be the smallest" is a fixed law), time is quite an "accomodating" concept in the theory. Being 2 an 4 equal in time is not eligible to be a good sign of correct labelling, in my opinion.
See page 230, 217 (II and IV of (III))...

However I think there is something, probably related to the "right look" concept. But that's another story.


Thanks for your efforts and sharing your interpretation