2022 Elliott Wave - page 5. | Bitcointalksearch.org

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: josegines on February 10, 2022, 02:57:30 AM

which Elliot's theory allows this?
I have always thought that the origin of a correction was necessarily the highest of all.

https://i.imgur.com/alplQMS.jpg

It's an irregular B-wave. The topping process in 2021 created two irregular B-waves:
https://i.ibb.co/vckfGsv/b-wave.png

Waves can truncate or be irregular, and hence create orthodox or unorthodox tops and bottoms, see page 31:
https://www.investmenttheory.org/uploads/3/4/8/2/34825752/elliott-wave-principle.pdf

The entire structure; i.e. a short wave-A, an irregular wave-B, and long wave-C, is known as an Elongated Flat:
https://blog.hycmlab.com/elliott-waves-other-flat-patterns/

josegines

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which Elliot's theory allows this?
I have always thought that the origin of a correction was necessarily the highest of all.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: josegines on February 08, 2022, 02:15:06 PM

Considering the flat pattern, I was referring to this, a new low, accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, probably below $30k. The idea is that we could then go looking for a new ATH, after we've cleared out a few longs.

Quote

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

https://i.imgur.com/rIR0Img.jpg

This scenario comes into play if price drops to the 03-FEB-2022 low, before five impulsive waves occur. At this moment, three/four waves appear: https://i.ibb.co/dJzmYJx/btcusd.png

josegines

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Considering the flat pattern, I was referring to this, a new low, accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, probably below $30k. The idea is that we could then go looking for a new ATH, after we've cleared out a few longs.

Quote

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: josegines on February 08, 2022, 04:46:09 AM

didn't think it was right that (b) could be above MINOR B

In other words, it seems clear that the maximum was point (b) and from there the corrective wave would begin.

Is it totally ruled out that this rise in recent days is a wave D and there is still a last wave E to end the correction?
The low of January 24 was not accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, which could indicate that either it is not the definitive low, or we are in that great triangle that we have commented on.

It's been almost a month since we've seen you update, we already missed you.

Technically speaking, a wave-D of a possible Triangle cannot be ruled-out unless new all-time highs occur.

Consider the following timescales...

   PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback was 261 days.
   PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback was 285 days (if now complete).

   PRIMARY[4] pullback was 364 days.

Would not expect PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback to last longer than PRIMARY[4] pullback, and so must complete by mid-April 2022 if its a Triangle —fairly tight timelines and so a Triangle is probably unlikely.

There was no potential trend change in Bitcoin over the last month, so had nothing to update..!

josegines

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 08, 2022, 01:02:51 AM

didn't think it was right that (b) could be above MINOR B

In other words, it seems clear that the maximum was point (b) and from there the corrective wave would begin.

Is it totally ruled out that this rise in recent days is a wave D and there is still a last wave E to end the correction?
The low of January 24 was not accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, which could indicate that either it is not the definitive low, or we are in that great triangle that we have commented on.

It's been almost a month since we've seen you update, we already missed you.

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 08, 2022, 01:02:05 AM

Quote from: josegines on January 26, 2022, 06:00:46 PM

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 10, 2022, 01:45:10 PM

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/20220110-btcusd-1.png

I imagine that we will not know that this [c] is over until the market rebounds and exceeds a certain level, which confirms that this wave is over.

Or do you see any new signs of where this [c] might end?
>30000
30000
<30000

As for time, the end of PRIMARY [5] could be May-June/22?

https://i.imgur.com/ECJMQ15.jpg

On the other hand, what are the chances of seeing this triangle?

https://i.imgur.com/1dt2dpV.jpg

Yes, a Triangle is possible, as described here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58964069

However, five impulsive waves up to new all-time highs would eliminate the Triangle scenario.

That's right, thanks for reminding me.

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 11, 2022, 03:34:46 PM

Since wave-B exceeded the high of wave-A (i.e. an Irregular B-wave), albeit very trivially; here are the potential wave-4 pullback scenarios to consider, in order of elimination...

1. If wave-C fails to decline to the wave-A low, then either
   i. a bullish Running Flat; or,
   ii. a bullish Ascending Triangle.

2. If wave-C declines to the wave-A low, then a bullish Regular Flat.

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
   i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
   ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

Flat: https://i.ibb.co/C0NFQPD/EW-Flat.png
Triangle: https://i.ibb.co/0y0ZZff/EW-Triangle.jpg

Scenario 2 is the median of all scenarios, and hence is depicted on the charts for now.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Activity: 571

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xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: josegines on January 26, 2022, 06:00:46 PM

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 10, 2022, 01:45:10 PM

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/20220110-btcusd-1.png

I imagine that we will not know that this [c] is over until the market rebounds and exceeds a certain level, which confirms that this wave is over.

Or do you see any new signs of where this [c] might end?
>30000
30000
<30000

As for time, the end of PRIMARY [5] could be May-June/22?

https://i.imgur.com/ECJMQ15.jpg

On the other hand, what are the chances of seeing this triangle?

https://i.imgur.com/1dt2dpV.jpg

Yes, a Triangle is possible, as described here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58964069

However, five impulsive waves up to new all-time highs would eliminate the Triangle scenario.

josegines

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 10, 2022, 01:45:10 PM

I imagine that we will not know that this [c] is over until the market rebounds and exceeds a certain level, which confirms that this wave is over.

Or do you see any new signs of where this [c] might end?
>30000
30000
<30000

As for time, the end of PRIMARY [5] could be May-June/22?

On the other hand, what are the chances of seeing this triangle?

coolcoinz

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If you count from the bull market lows, every consecutive cycle was longer.
In the model above, if you count from the halving, the first cycle doesn't follow the pattern, you can clearly see that it was much shorter than the second one. There's completely no reason to estimate that if the first bottom was -75% and the second -70 the next one will be again lower by 5% it's a very far fetched prediction, pretty much like throwing the dice twice and scoring 6 on the first throw, 5 on the second, and putting the next bet on 4, because it's beginning to look like a pattern.

While I agree that counting bars from the day of halving can give you some idea of what might happen next, expecting every correction to be at -5%, just because it happened once is completely random.

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on January 11, 2022, 04:06:14 PM

I’m doubtful the prices predicted by the OP can happen in 2022 but wow, if we get even close to the prices mentioned some of us will be very rich. Like I said, I’m doubtful but would love to be wrong. I think this bull cycoe is over & we have to wait until after the next halving to see over $100,000.

This is exactly what I am predicting to happen. We won't see us crossing $100k before the next halving.
My current analysis:

Quote from: ImThour on January 26, 2022, 04:58:51 AM

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on January 11, 2022, 04:06:14 PM

I’m doubtful the prices predicted by the OP can happen in 2022 but wow, if we get even close to the prices mentioned some of us will be very rich. Like I said, I’m doubtful but would love to be wrong. I think this bull cycoe is over & we have to wait until after the next halving to see over $100,000.

The Elliott Wave model and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time.

As stated, here are initial Fibonacci-based projection target zones for PRIMARY[5] wave; i.e. where the bull market could end, using BLX:BNC pricing...

Code:

$136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786%
$219,866 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.886%
$379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000%

LFC_Bitcoin

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I’m doubtful the prices predicted by the OP can happen in 2022 but wow, if we get even close to the prices mentioned some of us will be very rich. Like I said, I’m doubtful but would love to be wrong. I think this bull cycoe is over & we have to wait until after the next halving to see over $100,000.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: drays on January 11, 2022, 09:45:21 AM

If this is the 4-th correcting wave of the primary [5], then its wave C should drop lower than the wave A did, right?
Why do you expect it to bounce off around the same level as A did?

Wouldn't it be more natural if it bounces off Fibonacci 0.382 (19640)? Or would such scenario break some structures?

Since wave-B exceeded the high of wave-A (i.e. an Irregular B-wave), albeit very trivially; here are the potential wave-4 pullback scenarios to consider, in order of elimination...

1. If wave-C fails to decline to the wave-A low, then either
i. a bullish Running Flat; or,
ii. a bullish Ascending Triangle.

2. If wave-C declines to the wave-A low, then a bullish Regular Flat.

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

Flat: https://i.ibb.co/C0NFQPD/EW-Flat.png
Triangle: https://i.ibb.co/0y0ZZff/EW-Triangle.jpg

Scenario 2 is the median of all scenarios, and hence is depicted on the charts for now.

drays

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If this is the 4-th correcting wave of the primary [5], then its wave C should drop lower than the wave A did, right?
Why do you expect it to bounce off around the same level as A did?

Wouldn't it be more natural if it bounces off Fibonacci 0.382 (19640)? Or would such scenario break some structures?

xxxx123abcxxxx

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CookieFactory

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 08, 2022, 09:46:38 AM

Quote from: CookieFactory on January 08, 2022, 09:23:19 AM

Just to confirm, the "perpetual market" is essentially the "end of cycles" hypothesis that's currently making the rounds? Per EW theory cycles are inherent in the rhythms of man's life rather than something specific to bitcoin (or any other asset for that matter). It's only from being "man-made" and subject to man's whims that bitcoin inherits cycle behavior so how do we reconcile the end of cycles despite still existing within the realm of man's behavior?

"Perpetual" in the sense that Bitcoin has survived its first CYCLE degree bear market crash, and commences a new decade plus secular (i.e. long-term) CYCLE bull market, but continues to behave in a volatile fashion with -90% cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear markets.

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: CookieFactory on January 08, 2022, 09:23:19 AM

Just to confirm, the "perpetual market" is essentially the "end of cycles" hypothesis that's currently making the rounds? Per EW theory cycles are inherent in the rhythms of man's life rather than something specific to bitcoin (or any other asset for that matter). It's only from being "man-made" and subject to man's whims that bitcoin inherits cycle behavior so how do we reconcile the end of cycles despite still existing within the realm of man's behavior?

"Perpetual" in the sense that Bitcoin has survived its first CYCLE degree bear market crash, and commences a new decade plus secular (i.e. long-term) CYCLE bull market, but continues to behave in a volatile fashion with -90% cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear markets.

CookieFactory

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 05, 2022, 03:23:18 PM

Quote from: josegines on January 05, 2022, 07:17:12 AM

Okay, I try to fit the different forecasts out there.
-If BTC makes a new high in 2022, it could equate to the end of CYCLE I
-If after the halving of 2024 we see a new ATH, it could occur in 2025-2026
-between the maximum assumption of 2022 and the halving of 2024 should be the minimum of CYCLE II, then it would have a duration of less than 2 years.

in your opinion:
-the duration of CYCLE II could perfectly fit Elliot's Wave Theory and be followed by a CYCLE III (which would be mind-blowing)

Yes, that is correct.

A new CYCLE III bull market, if it does commence, may look like a perpetual market, as illustrated in the following post:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58211127

Just to confirm, the "perpetual market" is essentially the "end of cycles" hypothesis that's currently making the rounds? Per EW theory cycles are inherent in the rhythms of man's life rather than something specific to bitcoin (or any other asset for that matter). It's only from being "man-made" and subject to man's whims that bitcoin inherits cycle behavior so how do we reconcile the end of cycles despite still existing within the realm of man's behavior?

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: josegines on January 05, 2022, 07:17:12 AM

Okay, I try to fit the different forecasts out there.
-If BTC makes a new high in 2022, it could equate to the end of CYCLE I
-If after the halving of 2024 we see a new ATH, it could occur in 2025-2026
-between the maximum assumption of 2022 and the halving of 2024 should be the minimum of CYCLE II, then it would have a duration of less than 2 years.

in your opinion:
-the duration of CYCLE II could perfectly fit Elliot's Wave Theory and be followed by a CYCLE III (which would be mind-blowing)

Yes, that is correct.

A new CYCLE III bull market, if it does commence, may look like a perpetual market, as illustrated in the following post:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58211127

Topic: 2022 Elliott Wave - page 5. (Read 2287 times)