What if the November high was the beginning of the bear cycle? It is not impossible.
If we see a new maximum in the coming months, this cycle would have been significantly longer than the previous ones, also leaving much less time for the subsequent bearish cycle before the next halving of 2024.
That is, if we expect a PRIMARY [5] to culminate CYCLE I, the subsequent CYCLE II would have a very short duration relative to the impulse it corrects.
CYCLE I ---> 11 years
CYCLE II ---> <2 years
It's not what anyone wants to read, not even me. I'm not short, far from it. It is that the times would not fit.
If we see a new maximum in the coming months, this cycle would have been significantly longer than the previous ones, also leaving much less time for the subsequent bearish cycle before the next halving of 2024.
That is, if we expect a PRIMARY [5] to culminate CYCLE I, the subsequent CYCLE II would have a very short duration relative to the impulse it corrects.
CYCLE I ---> 11 years
CYCLE II ---> <2 years
It's not what anyone wants to read, not even me. I'm not short, far from it. It is that the times would not fit.
If the price of BTC drops to the 21-SEP-2021 low of 40K, it would imply an ongoing wave-(4) pullback is still underway and heading back to the JUN-2021 low of 28K.
Market cycles don't necessarily have to equal a balance of time; e.g. see DJIA30 chart here:
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/20211224-m-djia30.png
—From the 1932 low to the 2007 high, the DJIA30 index had a 75 year SUPERCYCLE-(I) bull market, consisting of five CYCLE degree waves.
—From the 2007 high to 2009 low, a SUPERCYCLE-(II) bear market halved the bull market (i.e. a -55% decline, approx equal to other historical declines).
—A 75 year SUPERCYCLE bull market, corrected by a 2 year SUPERCYCLE bear market.
After BTC completes its first bull market CYCLE, a bear market CYCLE shall follow (i.e. up to a -90% decline, approx equal to other historical declines).
Afterwards, whether a new bull market CYCLE starts again, is anybody's guess..?
Okay, I try to fit the different forecasts out there.
-If BTC makes a new high in 2022, it could equate to the end of CYCLE I
-If after the halving of 2024 we see a new ATH, it could occur in 2025-2026
-between the maximum assumption of 2022 and the halving of 2024 should be the minimum of CYCLE II, then it would have a duration of less than 2 years.
in your opinion:
-the duration of CYCLE II could perfectly fit Elliot's Wave Theory and be followed by a CYCLE III (which would be mind-blowing)
