2022 Elliott Wave - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: sparkl3t on April 24, 2022, 10:10:59 AM

Certainly the labelling is not appropriate
MINOR A of INTERMEDIATE(4), then labelled as W:

[c] can't be into an (a) (b) (c)

Still possible to make a W for that wave, but not like that.

BTW, what do you think about this hypothesis?

https://ibb.co/F02XdLL

Consider that a running flat (for what I observed in BTC) has usually a fast "restart", 3 months from the end of Jan, same as your wave Y, seems too long to me.
I know this is not a written in stone rule for the standard theory, but I would still take it into consideration.

As per Page 53 of the following reference...

   Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior by Robert R Prechter Jr and A.J. Frost
   https://cupdf.com/document/elliott-wave-principle-key-to-market-behavior-by-frost-and-prechter.html

—A-B-C Flat is a 3-3-5 structure.
—W-X-Y Flat is a 3-3-3 structure.

Technically speaking, in an A-B-C structure, only the final fifth within the wave-C is required to be five waves; i.e.

A(a-b-c)
B(a-b-c)
C(1-2-3-4-5) OR C(a-b-c(1-2-3-4-5))

Thus far, it appears the correction from JAN-2021 to MAR-2022 is 3-3-3 structure; and hence can still be considered as an A-B-C —just nomenclature.

Consider the following timescales...

   PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback was 261 days.
   PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback was 285 days (if now complete).

   PRIMARY[4] pullback was 364 days.

Would not expect PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback to last longer than PRIMARY[4] pullback, and so ought to complete by mid-April 2022; and hence would not expect an ongoing sideways correction.

sparkl3t

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Activity: 4

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Certainly the labelling is not appropriate
MINOR A of INTERMEDIATE(4), then labelled as W:

[c] can't be into an (a) (b) (c)

Still possible to make a W for that wave, but not like that.

BTW, what do you think about this hypothesis?

https://ibb.co/F02XdLL

Consider that a running flat (for what I observed in BTC) has usually a fast "restart", 3 months from the end of Jan, same as your wave Y, seems too long to me.
I know this is not a written in stone rule for the standard theory, but I would still take it into consideration.

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: SoniBTC on April 22, 2022, 11:11:21 AM

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 22, 2022, 09:56:02 AM

Quote from: SoniBTC on April 22, 2022, 09:45:09 AM

https://i.imgur.com/tf3uBCl.png][img]https://i.imgur.com/tf3uBCl.png

u have completely wrong corrective wave

Counting the Flat correction from MAR-2021 to JAN-2022 as a Double Three, which may be labelled as W-X-Y waves: https://i.ibb.co/LC67MPw/wxy.png

you are moving away from the classic version to an innovation, your corrective waves are all wrong, the 2nd wave is more than 4, the 1st and 3rd waves are almost the same, which is also wrong, everything you noted is similar to an innovation, and far from the classic version, initially you need follow the standard option, only then switch to another if it does not work

No "classic" or "innovation" interpretations have been used; all Elliott Wave analysis has been based on the following book...

   Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior by Robert R Prechter Jr and A.J. Frost
   https://cupdf.com/document/elliott-wave-principle-key-to-market-behavior-by-frost-and-prechter.html

   —Page 53 illustrates the Double Three W-X-Y structure

The current bull market which started at the low of 2019 has had two corrections so far: Wave-2 pullback was a 3-3-5 Zig Zag and Wave-4 pullback a 3-3-3 Running Flat. This portrays the "rule of alternation" and both corrections have been almost equal in time: https://i.ibb.co/174CNWn/20220422-BTCUSD.png

SoniBTC

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Activity: 6

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 22, 2022, 09:56:02 AM

Quote from: SoniBTC on April 22, 2022, 09:45:09 AM

https://i.imgur.com/tf3uBCl.png][img]https://i.imgur.com/tf3uBCl.png

u have completely wrong corrective wave

Counting the Flat correction from MAR-2021 to JAN-2022 as a Double Three, which may be labelled as W-X-Y waves: https://i.ibb.co/LC67MPw/wxy.png

you are moving away from the classic version to an innovation, your corrective waves are all wrong, the 2nd wave is more than 4, the 1st and 3rd waves are almost the same, which is also wrong, everything you noted is similar to an innovation, and far from the classic version, initially you need follow the standard option, only then switch to another if it does not work

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: SoniBTC on April 22, 2022, 09:45:09 AM

https://i.imgur.com/tf3uBCl.png][img]https://i.imgur.com/tf3uBCl.png

u have completely wrong corrective wave

Counting the Flat correction from MAR-2021 to JAN-2022 as a Double Three, which may be labelled as W-X-Y waves: https://i.ibb.co/LC67MPw/wxy.png

SoniBTC

newbie

Activity: 6

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 19, 2022, 09:31:19 AM

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/20220419-bncblx-1.png

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/20220419-btcusd.png

https://i.imgur.com/tf3uBCl.png

u have completely wrong corrective wave

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

SoniBTC

newbie

Activity: 6

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the authors of these charts note waves and cycles, as if a person has the same length of arms and legs, think about it

tygeade

legendary

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Quote from: josegines on March 29, 2022, 07:43:44 AM

the rallies usually last about two months,
that means, that if we are already in a rally, we could have a new ATH for May-June, and end of the rise.

We won't really know until it happens, however, the steeper the climb, the more likely it will be the last climb, and chances are it will end in May-June.

Correct, in 2013 it was 2 months, but in 2017 it was more. Who knows how it will be now, if we break maximums.

Simply in May-June a cycle appears (281 days), which can be maximum or minimum. But cycles change.

The crashes happen in a few days though, they stay for months but they happen quickly. It is usually like 100 bucks to 200 bucks in 2 months, then back to 100 bucks in 2 days, stay at 100 bucks for the other 58 days, then again to 200 bucks in 2 months. So, when the crash happens it happens very quickly and then it stays there because people are afraid to buy back.

This means that either we are going to go high for 2 more months and reach maybe even a new ATH who knows? Or maybe we could drop to a lower and lower level and be a lot worse than we should, maybe even under 35k levels again. I am not sure which one will happen, but that is usually the path we take.

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: josegines on March 29, 2022, 07:43:44 AM

yes, but the rallies usually last about two months,
that means, that if we are already in a rally, we could have a new ATH for May-June, and end of the rise.

We won't really know until it happens, however, the steeper the climb, the more likely it will be the last climb, and chances are it will end in May-June.

Correct, in 2013 it was 2 months, but in 2017 it was more. Who knows how it will be now, if we break maximums.

Simply in May-June a cycle appears (281 days), which can be maximum or minimum. But cycles change.

The PRIMARY degree bull markets in regard to time have been as follows:

Code:

PRIMARY[1]: The 1st bull market wave   2010-2013 (1148 days)
PRIMARY[3]: The 2nd bull market wave   2015-2018 (1064 days)
PRIMARY[5]: The 3rd bull market wave   2019-202X (1240 days so far)

PRIMARY[5] is already the longest bull market in the cycle in regard to time, and if it completes by 31-DEC-2022, it will have elapsed 1482 days.

bill gator

legendary

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One of our users did a great write-up that has gone largely unnoticed on the subject.

The thread can be found here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/guide-elliott-5274213 , by Husires, in case anybody would like a little overview/education on the concept.

I find that these predictive models always breakdown at a certain point, but more power to you if you're able to successfully predict the markets using it.

josegines

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 28, 2022, 04:16:07 PM

Quote from: josegines on March 28, 2022, 04:03:57 PM

ATH in 2023?
https://i.imgur.com/lNzxBl8.png

PRIMARY degree bull markets in Bitcoin have so far topped in December or thereabouts, so expecting the current bull market to do the same, but just guesswork...

Code:

PRIMARY[1] bull market: 30-NOV-2013
PRIMARY[3] bull market: 17-DEC-2017
PRIMARY[5] bull market: XX-DEC-2022 ..?

Code:

PRIMARY[2] bear market: 14-JAN-2015
PRIMARY[4] bear market: 15-DEC-2018

Both bull & bear markets of PRIMARY degree tend to start & end around December.

yes, but the rallies usually last about two months,
that means, that if we are already in a rally, we could have a new ATH for May-June, and end of the rise.

We won't really know until it happens, however, the steeper the climb, the more likely it will be the last climb, and chances are it will end in May-June.

Correct, in 2013 it was 2 months, but in 2017 it was more. Who knows how it will be now, if we break maximums.

Simply in May-June a cycle appears (281 days), which can be maximum or minimum. But cycles change.

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: josegines on March 28, 2022, 04:03:57 PM

ATH in 2023?
https://i.imgur.com/lNzxBl8.png

PRIMARY degree bull markets in Bitcoin have so far topped in December or thereabouts, so expecting the current bull market to do the same, but just guesswork...

Code:

PRIMARY[1] bull market: 30-NOV-2013
PRIMARY[3] bull market: 17-DEC-2017
PRIMARY[5] bull market: XX-DEC-2022 ..?

Code:

PRIMARY[2] bear market: 14-JAN-2015
PRIMARY[4] bear market: 15-DEC-2018

Both bull & bear markets of PRIMARY degree tend to start & end around December.

josegines

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 28, 2022, 02:47:45 PM

..

ATH in 2023?

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: drays on February 27, 2022, 01:56:26 PM

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 26, 2022, 05:22:51 PM

Rule: Wave 3 can't be the shortest in terms of points; therefore...

"in terms of points" means "in terms of of percentage gain", right? So suppose the time is not a factor here. Do I understand it correctly?

One other question, if you don't mind...
https://elliottwaveplus.com/guide-2-wave-notes-an-outline-of-the-wave-principle/ says regarding extension of impulsive waves:

Quote

Extension: in impulses, usually just one of waves 1, 3 or 5 extend. Wave 3 is the most likely to extend. Rarely, both 3 and 5 extend. Extensions can occur within extensions. For instance 3 of 3. Sometimes, at the end of an impulse in which one of the waves extended, there are 9 total waves, and it is difficult to determine which wave extended. There also can be extensions within extensions. 5 in extension manifests itself as 9, 13, 17, etc. 3 in extension can appear as a 7, 11, 15, etc. If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to extend, especially if volume is greater in the 5th than the 3rd.

I am unsure here - was any of the major waves extended up to this point (wave 1 or 3)?

Thanks for your time and for sharing your knowledge.

Waves are measured in number of points, not percentages. These are two very different measurements. On log charts, percentages can actually be larger than points. However, the waves are measured in terms of points.

Code:

PRIMARY[1] (2010-2013)
   INTERMEDIATE(1) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves.
   INTERMEDIATE(3) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves.
   INTERMEDIATE(5) did not extend and subdivide.

PRIMARY[3] (2015-2018)
   INTERMEDIATE(1) did not extend and subdivide.
   INTERMEDIATE(3) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves, which in turn, extended and subdivided into MINUTE degree waves.
   INTERMEDIATE(5) did not extend and subdivide.

PRIMARY[5] (2018-?)
   INTERMEDIATE(1) did not extend and subdivide.
   INTERMEDIATE(3) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves, which in turn, extended and subdivided into MINUTE degree waves.
   INTERMEDIATE(5) is currently undetermined.

drays

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 26, 2022, 05:22:51 PM

Rule: Wave 3 can't be the shortest in terms of points; therefore...

"in terms of points" means "in terms of of percentage gain", right? So suppose the time is not a factor here. Do I understand it correctly?

One other question, if you don't mind...
https://elliottwaveplus.com/guide-2-wave-notes-an-outline-of-the-wave-principle/ says regarding extension of impulsive waves:

Quote

Extension: in impulses, usually just one of waves 1, 3 or 5 extend. Wave 3 is the most likely to extend. Rarely, both 3 and 5 extend. Extensions can occur within extensions. For instance 3 of 3. Sometimes, at the end of an impulse in which one of the waves extended, there are 9 total waves, and it is difficult to determine which wave extended. There also can be extensions within extensions. 5 in extension manifests itself as 9, 13, 17, etc. 3 in extension can appear as a 7, 11, 15, etc. If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to extend, especially if volume is greater in the 5th than the 3rd.

I am unsure here - was any of the major waves extended up to this point (wave 1 or 3)?

Thanks for your time and for sharing your knowledge.

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: ImThour on February 26, 2022, 05:07:21 PM

Rule of Elliot Wave: the third wave cannot be shorter than wave one, three, and five.
In this case, 3rd is shorter than 5th.

What do you say?

Rule: Wave 3 can't be the shortest in terms of points; therefore...

—if Wave 1 is the largest, then Wave 3 must be larger than Wave 5; or,
—if Wave 5 is the largest, then Wave 3 must be larger than Wave 1.