Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 10. (Read 7712 times)

How do you do these calculations?
I think you already explained this a little, but I ended up not memorizing it. 

bitmain could do well with an uptick in price to 85k. then a two month flat sideways move in 80-88 slot.

So now that this is done seems like as expected I missed my prediction of a new ATH in hash rate before the end of Q2, as no matter what happens the next adjustment will be outside of it.But looking back it wasn't that bad, I'm off 20exahas out of 600 so just a 3% drop compared to the adjustment before the halving for me is still low and still pretty unexpected.

And now that 5 cents have become the new norm, with Bitmain unleashing a new basic more efficient we're going to start looking at 4 cents as the average and salivate at 7-8.  I'm starting to think at the mountain of obsolete gear that will pile up once s19 will be out of business, just a few million of them.

tick tick zero almost there.


Latest Block:   848686  (18 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.9999%  (1967 / 1967.00 expected, 0 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                            
Current Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83739794505482 and 83739808187323
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0276% and +0.0277%
Previous Retarget:   June 6, 2024 at 4:58 AM  (-0.7879%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 4:58 AM  (in 0d 8h 10m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 4:58 AM  (in 0d 8h 10m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 0m 0s and 14d 0h 0m 0s



we are now negative.


Latest Block:   848702  (28 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.7345%  (1983 / 1988.28 expected, 5.28 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                           
Current Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83517303031850 and 83517356320157
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.2381% and -0.2381%
Previous Retarget:   June 6, 2024 at 4:58 AM  (-0.7879%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 5:52 AM  (in 0d 5h 30m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 5:52 AM  (in 0d 5h 30m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 53m 38s and 14d 0h 53m 39s


maybe we do -1% which is impressive number.

+29.67:blocks

lots of time for up or down.

We dropped Pace and price.

Latest Block:   847518  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   102.2216%  (799 / 781.64 expected, 17.36 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                            
Current Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84926561595841 and 85636181838657
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.4452% and +2.2929%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 4:58 AM  (-0.7879%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 19, 2024 at 9:40 PM  (in 8d 6h 25m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 20, 2024 at 12:20 AM  (in 8d 9h 5m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 41m 52s and 13d 19h 21m 31s

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Latest Block:   847645  (46 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.3671%  (926 / 913.51 expected, 12.49 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                            
Current Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84558885396818 and 84911765804687
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.0060% and +1.4276%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 4:58 AM  (-0.7879%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 20, 2024 at 12:27 AM  (in 7d 11h 13m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 20, 2024 at 1:46 AM  (in 7d 12h 32m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 28m 7s and 13d 20h 47m 35s


closer to 0

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Latest Block:   848570  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.7011%  (1851 / 1838.11 expected, 12.89 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                           
Current Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                           
Next Difficulty:   between 84324472488798 and 84328601462592
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7260% and +0.7310%
Previous Retarget:   June 6, 2024 at 4:58 AM  (-0.7879%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 2:38 AM  (in 1d 3h 18m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 2:39 AM  (in 1d 3h 19m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 39m 38s and 13d 21h 40m 34s


less than 1% from 0

The current pace is 102%, mempool.space is showing -6% not sure why, there seems to be a bug in their system somewhere.

Yesterday's earnings were a lot higher than the day before due to the high fees, 1ph earned 0.0012 btc vs 0.0008 btc, fees have dropped in the last a few blocks but still in the 60 sat/Vbyte range which will still make miners earn slightly more than 0.0008btc per peta.

almost zero

It will be interesting after this cycle to analyze the data and understand which pool was most affected by this situation.

Texas and Oklahoma are facing a heat wave. So we may see a negative again.

I wonder the exact amount of hash online in Texas and Oklahoma .

Is it 100eh or maybe 200eh. I am pretty sure it is in that range.

Or to be more conservative 75eh to 150eh

I was so sure things would go differently exactly when I had all the reasons not to think of such, but yeah, pretty wild, coming from a week of 7% to negative, at least we can agree that it makes sense, a 7% up on 5 cents per th/s would be simply nuts!
5.9 cents starts looking way more acceptable than maybe dipping below 4.5 in case the price went south and the diff north 

Now, the worst part of this is that it affected my chances of nailing the after halving ATH in Q2, now all the bets are on good weather and another jump, maybe some magic touch to $75k, and that soon!

Heat issues in the southwest part of usa.
And tornado damage. So maybe miners shut down a lot of gear. In Texas and Oklahoma

So, were the miners really waiting for the end of May to turn off the machines?
We are facing a difference of almost 10%, this could turn out to be a very tough cycle.

Could it be an attempt to clog the mainpool?

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   846743  (20 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   85.3296%  (24 / 28.13 expected, 4.13 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                           
Current Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                           
Next Difficulty:   between 72846658583936 and 83422037421542
Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.9843% and -0.3519%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 4:58 AM  (-0.7879%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 20, 2024 at 6:20 AM  (in 13d 20h 40m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 22, 2024 at 2:44 PM  (in 16d 5h 4m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 22m 1s and 16d 9h 46m 1s


so last night we dropped to -0.7879% prices are around 71.1k

btc is earning 5.91 cents a th

Latest Block:   846553  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.7859%  (1850 / 1835.57 expected, 14.43 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Current Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 85100536888383 and 85105487678001
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.8522% and +0.8580%
Previous Retarget:   May 23, 2024 at 2:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 11:28 PM  (in 1d 3h 27m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 11:29 PM  (in 1d 3h 28m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 22m 48s and 13d 21h 23m 52s




we are closing in on  0%


Latest Block:   846627  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.1968%  (1924 / 1920.22 expected, 3.78 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Current Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84604917648580 and 84605385214330
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2648% and +0.2654%
Previous Retarget:   May 23, 2024 at 2:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 1:26 AM  (in 0d 15h 18m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 1:26 AM  (in 0d 15h 18m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 20m 24s and 13d 23h 20m 29s


so very close to 0%

price is good over 70k


Latest Block:   846684  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.6683%  (1981 / 1987.59 expected, 6.59 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Current Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 84157207682435 and 84157275094877
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.2658% and -0.2657%
Previous Retarget:   May 23, 2024 at 2:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 3:12 AM  (in 0d 5h 51m 8s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 3:12 AM  (in 0d 5h 51m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 7m 3s and 14d 1h 7m 5s



we have fallen to negative after being at +11% back at block 500.


we are pushing near the 71k number.

Well Phil, you're in the US so you should tell us how things are there, as far as I can see checking the weather in Houston and Austin (I don't know where those datacenters are) the previous week was far worse than what we have now , 3-4 degrees Celsius more than now, so shutting down because of heat doesn't match the insane blockpace we had on the 25-27..
I will put this more on possible maintenance and return from that terrible variance we had rather than massive shutting down, although we had a 1st of the month so maybe some other contracts expired?



3 2/3 days left, only 12 blocks left, so a variance of 2% is needed to go negative again.
This was unexpected!

Or the big miners don't want the difficulty to change, and are turning off machines in order to maintain more or less the same level of difficulty.

Is it hot in Texas?

miners shutting down?

Five days left we seem stable in the 1-2 % area

Not even a single click is needed in the process, I control my Whatminers based on the room temp very easily, and it takes little to no programming knowledge to fully automate the process, it won't cost over 1k for a mining company to write a good working script that would do hashrate swings based on whatever values they have it, with Whatsminer it gets even better as you can directly set the power limit, you can have a miner that uses 3.5kw tuned down to 2kw or whatever number.

Obviously, this is only useful in two cases, if your power rate is changing based on what hour of the day it is, or if you don't want to spend 100% on cooling, I saw one large guy speak about this on one of the telegram groups, the logic is, if you rate your cooling to handle the hottest hours of the years when the hottest hours don't make a good portion of the entire period, then you will end up loosing money.

Of course, the above theory is very subjective and it depends on so many factors, but say that you run a 100kw farm, and then the max temp you may ever get in your area is 35c, but that only happens for 2 months during the noon hours, say 5 hours a day for 2 months, this would give you a total of 12 days which is only like 3% of the entire year, the average temp however is always below 25c, so you run the math, say 100kw cooling at 35c requires an investment of 10k, but for 80kw at 35 or 100kw at 25 it requires 7k, you save 3k, would downclocking your gears by 20% for 3% of the year be better than spending those extra 3k? while keeping in mind that during those 12 hours your gears run more efficient so it's also less power bill.

The above is just an "example", but I am sure it does work for some people, especially those very large farms.

19.87 ahead 846 blocks to go. you never know we could drop to -0.5% or do +2%