Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 9. (Read 3832 times)

And they have the ability to also increase the luck to ridiculous levels, too, because that's how luck works.

Of course the 350k could be done you just have to employ more people, you just have to have a lot of MW available for god knows what reason, you have to have extra racks at hand, again why would, and spend a ton of $ to do that as fast as possible for, what really? A extra week of mining?

The reason why I don't believe in it being possible is because I see all those press release from Mara, Riot, Hut8 and if you look at the rate they put in new gear despite having it in order you will see they barely manage to bring each of them 1-2 exahash online constantly, to think that they would get their gear at the same time and decided all of them to play like this and keep the s19 running for exactly the same time, this to me sounds like a possibility just as high of getting 1 extra block for the 6 you mine usually without doing anything extra.

As mikey said above, a combination of luck, extra gear delivered, some farm testing a setup, a farm maybe going down for maintenance as we speak yes, but just one single factor, I find it hard to believe!

Pace has gone up a bit:


Yup, weeks is the thing, it just doesn't happen in two weeks, on/off.
Besides, the whole renovation thing, let's assume you have 10 000 gears , you plan on giving away 3000 and replacing them with 3000 new ones, why would that company had the space, racks, cables, transformers, cooling already in place  for 3000 extra gear? When you renovate something you don't have already things set up in place and working for extra 20 or 25% of capacity.

I hear your points , both of you, both make sense and unfortunately probability is not math, you can't be too sure of what caused an event to happen when you have no control over it, it's likely a combination of both theories with different ratio, there has to be luck involved for that 8% figure to happen, I simply don't believe there was an addition of nearly 50EH in a single epoch, but I also know giving the halving is just around the corner -- many gear switching is probably taking place, gear prices are falling down rapidly especially the used once.

this truck can move 500 pieces

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if the gear is on pallets it loads in 1 hour.

I am 67 and I just loaded and unloaded that truck with 9700 pounds of eth cables. we loaded it in an hour.

offloading was slower. 2 hours. Two guys. the other guy was 30 years old and did more work than me.

So yeah its work but 4 guys and two trucks could do four short trips in a day. that is 2000 pieces a day. or 10,000 pieces in a week.

We can argue good luck and bad luck which can be involved. But the larger the network the more level luck is.

 If 1  s19 was the entire network it can do 180 blocks in a day with luck
 If 1,000,000 s19 is the entire network they can do 180 blocks in a day with luck

In theory both are true , but you are neglecting a secondary factor the 1,000,000 separate pieces running independently have the ability to flatten the luck.

and the 1 piece has the ability to skew the luck easier.


Although I can bet you bottom dollar someone will say no to that idea.  The difference in difficulty cancels that factor.  It does in theory only if every machine is a perfectly equal machine running at perfectly equal conditions .

Then they would be like perfect casino dice. with zero balance.

The reality is a 1 machine network could have a great machine with great parts and it is a luckier machine.

It also could have a great connection to the blockchain.  So it could be biased to higher luck.


1,000,000 machines will flatten that a lot.  It will not show in the formulas but it is true.

Why not? If the miner is planning an equipment renovation, they may well do that.
Are you going to do this overnight? No, it will be a gradual process that will last a few days or weeks.

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Would rather blame some really unrealistic days in terms of block generation:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m
we had a day with extra 42 blocks just one like that and you screw the difficulty completely.

Probably 4% was more accurate, and if the pace goes up just a bit but still negative it would mean a 4% followed by a 2%, still realistic.
300k gear moving in and out in 10 days, I can't even picture the logistic behind it.

A 106 rate of luck for 2016 blocks is very unlikely.

It is more likely that it was 108 and some miners cranked up hard while waiting to redeploy their new s21's

I now think they pulled a ton go s19's off line and are dumping them at very cheap prices.

I see listings for 1045 used s19j pros at — $1,279,000 for the lot —

that is about 

125ph

and 300 m30's for  880 each that is about  30ph

those are public sales at dumping prices.

The current pace is 94.7%, it is extremely unlikely that we had the  a 6.3% drop in hashrate given the price, so this makes me believe (even more) that the previous epoch was very lucky and that the 8.2% increase was more so 2-3% and the rest was luck.

a bit of a retreat.

---

---

Still a decent back off in difficultly.

for years 6 cent power was always good for miners.

but this April Six cents will be not good enough for all s19's other than xp units.

Now maybe we just move to 75k which will bail out all s19s at 6 cent power.

Well, I think this will be the increasing danger. The margin for smaller miners is getting tighter and tighter. And maybe after the next Halving more small miners will turn off the machines.
And for mining to become even more concentrated only in large miners, this means leaving the network completely under the control of these large miners.

I also don't think the solution is higher transaction fees, as this will cause a lack of motivation in using the network. But finding a balance point is not easy.

No here is why.

blocks were 8 coins even 9 coins. first two jumps of the year
now under 7 blocks

diff jumped 16% .

so a block of 9 coins at 40k vs a block of 6.8 coins at 52k is about 360k either way.

this means the price jump was fully canceled by the fee drop.

but wait we had a 16% diff jump up so this means two jumps back you got 360k

now you get 360k x .84 = 302.4 k. so miners have been crushed since 2 jumps passed.

360k vs 303k or

or 100 drops to 84 .  and the ½ ing is comiing. which means

that 84 turns into 42. 

we (miners) are being crushed.

we need 95k by may 1 to be close to today. we need 120k to be equal to the very high jan 1 earnings which were 13 cents a th. we are hurting and coming to a cliff. by we miners. today i advise buying coin not mining it.

If we go for November numbers so a bit of the extreme:
we were at 35k and went to 52k , that's close to 50%
447 exa and 583 exa now that's 30%
so that much increase in hashrate is really chewing at the increase in income per th/s.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html#3m



I seriously doubt that there is enough gear to make up for 18 exahash so 50 000 older S19 that lose money at 8 cents but are profitable at 9.
So not a question of not being there but being there in such a number!
And would all those have immediate access to all that power? 50k gear is still 150MW..

If we have a 2-3 maybe even 4% spike it will be because of new gear bought on credit not reactivation of tens of thousands of miners, or at least that's what I believe.

But, because of this recent appreciation of BTC, might not greater hash power arise, as it compensates for connecting older machines?

It may not have much of an impact, but I believe that with Bitcoin at around $50k, many miners who have old machines will start calling again as it is already profitable.

I think the difficulty is going to take a break for  while
+7.3% and now +8.2%, that makes up for 16.1% in a month, we're poking at 600exa so another 16% would be some half a million S21!!!!
That would mean roughly
- 1.750 MW
- $2.5 billion (assuming no coupons)

No way this is going to repeat itself!


I'm not really going to bet on a negative but anything over 3% would still be insane.

Btw , looking at that table and at
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
Binance pool is losing marketshare seriously lately, I wonder how their "cloud' mining goes!

174 blocks to go

will we drop under 7% or go back over 8%

price is pushing 52k

from new hedge link above


Latest Block:   830583  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.9749%  (2008 / 1859.69 expected, 148.31 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                            
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Next Difficulty:   between 81553628518803 and 81553731450838
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.0150% and +8.0151%
Previous Retarget:   February 2, 2024 at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:46 AM  (in 0d 1h 14m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:46 AM  (in 0d 1h 14m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 23h 11m 0s and 12d 23h 11m 1s


Just about 8%

price was 43000 on feb 2
price is now 52200 on feb 15   so price is up 21%


okay that seems good for miners right.  lets look at fee action from this thread

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63571239




fees were huge the prior jump

new numbers will be out soon and show a drop in fees from 2 coins a block to a ½ coin

So miners are losing ground and the ½ ing is coming.






we are in the gray zone see below.


Latest Block:   830591  (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.0000%  (0 / 3.48 expected, 3.48 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   undefined                                    
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Next Difficulty:   between 75502165623893 and 75502165623893
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0000% and +0.0000%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 9:07 AM  (NaN%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 29, 2024 at 9:41 AM  (in 14d 0h 0m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 29, 2024 at 9:41 AM  (in 14d 0h 0m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 34m 46s and 14d 0h 34m 46s




I rarely catch this on my screen shots.

it will update on next block.

my thanks to newhedge.io

I agree. Many machines had to be turned off so that the value drops significantly in these last 2 days of the cycle.

But, this cycle was interesting and I believe positive, blocks leaving easily, low fees and some appreciation of BTC. Will we be able to keep low fees in the next cycle and the price of BTC continues in a positive phase?

Phil, i don't think the 6 cents/Kwh holds true anymore, i believe it has changed when the U.S miners took over, we saw deals of 2-3 cents for some of those large players.

Post halving, I think anything above 5 cents and or above 30w/th won't do good for a good while until the markets whale.

As for the pace, the last 24 hours had an average block of 10.6 mins, so we are indeed slowing down, but i doubt we go below 7% for this epoch, which still offset the price increase.

for miners 50k is about to turn into 25k if bitmain jumps price it wont sell.

if we are at 65k with these diff jumps it will be brutal when the ½ ing comes.


edit we faded a bit


Not sure if we fade to 8% or go back over 9%

either number is huge and cancels out the price rise to 49-50k

we are at 8.6 cents a th
  this jump drops us to 7.9 cents a th

and the ½ ing drops us to  3.95 cents a th

so take your new s21 and 4 x 200 = 8 dollars uses 90 kwatts a day or 5.4 usd

so 8-5.4 = 2.6 dollars a day about a 1500 day roi at six cents.

I use six cents because it is the number that has worked for profit since the beginning of mining.

Now if you are all xp's you make 140 x 4 = 5.60 and burn 4.80 an 80 cent profit which is a 3000 day payback at 6 cent power.

For miners to be out of the wood after the ½ ing we need to be over 70k price fast

Back in the frying pan, or is it in the fire from the pan? 


Two days to go and we're at 179!!!!! blocks int he last 24 hours, seems almost impossible to get it back under 7, but who knows
Price broke 50k so no slowdown coming from there, maybe quite the opposite, I wouldn't be surprised to see bitmain rising prices!

some relief we are at 8.9%




70% into the jump..  Maybe we back off to 7%