Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 11. (Read 7577 times)

Actually I was thinking the congestion would start happening after the next difficulty adjustment when the block creation rate stabilizes but transactions keep getting broadcasted at the same rate as they were a few days ago.

Now the fees have somehow gone to 28 sat/vb, which means that a lot of people just added 60k more transactions in 4 days, because the only way you can introduce a higher fee (without making hundreds of transactions with 500 sat/vb) is if the miners can't keep up with the steady demand.

The question is, how long can miners last without significantly selling the mined bitcoins to cover the costs.
If they hold out, and this rise continues to occur, then they will most likely be able to enjoy a period of good profits.

I agree, seems like the mining industry is priced in for 100k+ BTC, with the current prices, cost, and everything, even for the big boys it's a few years to ROI, somewhere pretty close to the next halving which might extend the ROI from a few years to basically never, although I do see some contradiction here if someone believes BTC price is going up -- they should count their ROI in BTC and not in fiat, but obviously if you do that -- you are unlikely to buy or have bought any gears in a recent couple of months because ROI in BTC is more so like never with the current numbers. but ya, I don't know.


American money makes this whole thing a few orders of magnitude harder to predict, anything is possible at this stage, but it's only a matter of time before shit hit the fan, we just don't know how long it's going to take.

and we are over 70k


Mining has been a rock pushing to be ready for the break out to over 140k.

If we do rise to 70k in a fast time earning would go to about 11 cents a th from the current 5.5 cents a th we are at.

To put this in perspective in Dec 2023 earnings were 13 cents a th . So was that 13 cents the last big number for th?

Time will tell.

And in half a day it dropped 5%, 17 blocks advantage gone in 53 blocks.
Shows how much variance can happen out of the blue.


I have a better word for it, madness, and yeah if the price won't confirm the trend it will be a bloodbath, that happened, in every industry where billions were poured on high expectations that never materialized, but sooner or later some will face reality. As for my speculation, just give it time, it's still possible to be 25% off, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit.

13.5982% is terrible

not sure we do that but 5-7% looks possible.

In short, if the miner can have energy at 5-6 cents kW/h, mining will continue to be profitable. And you still have a good margin to update the machines you use, in order to increase your hash power while maintaining your energy expenditure.

We will certainly continue to see this "battle" between miners for some time.

Below a fake but realistic setup

All my gear is paid off I got s19s a while back and now I am as below ( with some coins in hand say 5 coins )

So my 1000 s19 mine  say 5 cents. I make 5.40 I burn 3.75 that is  1.65 profit x 1000 units so I earn 1650 a day or 50,000 a month.

It is my mine I have 3x  40 foot boxes 333 miners in each 3 mega watts.

It is on my property. I have a home there.

I take a coin cash it 68k I take a months profit 50,000 that is 118k.  I get s21's or t21's

If I get coupons the t21's are 3k plus shipping plus the mod total of 3500

that is 33 machines  I add 33 at 190th that is 6.270 ph I drop 38 s19's that is 3.800 ph.

same power use but 2.470 ph more mining. That means next month I add 34 units at 190th and drop 39

Easy to do and I sell the s19's at 500 each so in two months  

35,000 in sold off s19

and I have 927 s19's with 67 t21's

I went from 100,000th to 105,430th and in those two months I spent only 100,000 out of pocket.

since I am paid off and this include my labor and power.

I can slow the pace if I want. I just needed the setup above entering the 1/2 ing.  

I know people that can do this kind of a build out.

Bigger farms scale it bigger.

---

It's probably mostly due to what Phill explained above, it gets more obvious when you look at the price tag of said gears, I saw used S19 pro go for $3.95/th, while on the other hand, a brand new S21 costs roughly $18/th, this is a 30w/th gear vs 18w/th gear, a few weeks before the halving those S19 went for double the price at $8 and higher, the S21 went for $19-$20, so almost zero change in price despite the halving.

This gives you a good clue how screwed everybody is, during the good times, the difference between an 18w vs 30w gear shouldn't be this huge, but now that profits are tight as hell, the 10-12w make all the difference in the world, although the ROI on these isn't looking too pretty because, at 5 cents/kWh, a 200th S21 earns $6.5 a day, but costs $3600, that's 553 days for ROI, not sure what everyone is betting on here, it's either a diff drop or a price increase, otherwise, ROI on this will only get worse, at 6 cents it's 642 days for ROI, this is not counting any downtime, failure, operation expenses, cooling, which could easily add another 30% to ROI.

I still can't think of any way to describe what's happening in the BTC mining world other than the chicken game, everybody knows there is no room for everybody else, nobody is backing down, everyone is hitting the pedal as hard as they can, shit would break loose at some point if BTC price doesn't moon, what's what I think, but while they keep playing this game, you may as well be correct on your assumption and see hashrate higher on Q3 than before the halving, which would wipe out all your previous wrong speculations.

swapping s19 for s21 or t21


a 3.2 megawatt farm doing 1000 s19 could do 900 s21
so 1000x100 = 100000 th or 100 ph

becomes 900 x 200 = 180000th or 180ph

same power foot print.


if the mine is a 5 cent to 6 cent power cost simply swap out your s19s .


now the s19s have $4.50 power cost at six cents and earn 5.26-5.50 so they do not kill you as you swap out 100 at a time for s21 or better yet t21 which are 1000 cheaper even with the mods.

so by the end of the year your 1000 unit s19 mine is 900  s21 or 900:t21 or a mix of them.

it is easy for a 5-6 power cost guy.

to do this. he needs six 20 foot boxes set to do 600kwatts.


I lost my mine not because it cant turn a profit. we were capped for cheap power it 90 s21s is max we could do. thats 900 a day gross.

in 2021 we grossed 1200 a day and were not maxed out.

for the 2024 mine to work for the four of us btc needs to be at 140k. so we broke it up. the warehouse owner and his son at splitting the coin now.

Ok, so let me respond to your uncertainty with a question since I obviously believe you on this, then enlighten me where the f**** is this hashrate coming from?
If people are selling, people are quitting like Phil, if gear is dumped, if I look at 5 cents per th/s income where is this growth coming from?
Possible that even my one ridiculous prediction on the large pockets of the big guys was an underestimation?
This is nuts!!!

You probably have realized by now that I was half joking with that ATH before Q2, but right now it seems truly doable!


Pace is still lower over 24h intervals than yesterday 165 vs 172.
But, I don't understand, how faster blocks trigger a congestion? It's the other way around!

The block creation rate has gone out of whack this past hour.

Literally 13 blocks created in the last 60 minutes. Since 845081.

I wonder if we are about to see a gigantic mempool congestion and hence much higher fees soon.

ALOT, tens of thousands of S19 pros for under $5/th,  some even close to $4/th for bulk orders, I also see a lot of containers and large transformers (1MW and larger) for sale,  mostly located in the U.S.

We don't know where do these gears come from, but seems to be all small guys ( by today's standards at least), so seems like unless you are pretty huge or has some pretty cheap power rate, you are certainly going to lose.

But i am almost sure, the big boys are also somehow in a trouble and their turn is coming.

Cancel any air travel planes if you have one, incoming flying pigs battalion 
To be honest I can't believe how close I have got to the actual thing,

Assuming this as before halving and the current one we would only need 2.38% up to match it, and this 2% is well in luck sector, it could happen even without the actual hash being there.
Anyhow the 14% is nuts, no way that happens, I doubt even the smaller estimate 4% is technically possible.

But seems like there are well too many people trapped in this, believing in price going up, having enough resources to think they can win the race and so on, and when I say too many is more like almost everyone.
You're probably the best guy to ask, is there any hint of massive used gear going for sale?

Too early but we having a fast pace for the new epoch


Just imagine for one second that we would actually have a 14% increase in this epoch!

So it has been a month and so since the halving and we are only down by 4% or so, if we don't see another 10% drop then we know for sure this halving is different. Still too early to judge but anything is possible at this point.

price is over 71k and 1 th is earning about 0.0556

so a 100th miner is earning $5.56 - power cost of  about $5.25  at 7 cent power or $31 cent profit for a s19pro j

and a 200th miner is earning $11.12 - power cost of  about $5.60 at 7 cent power or $5.52 profit for a s21






we did 1.48%

How long are contracts normally for?
Updated every year? Every 6 months?

If it happens every year, it will only be closer to the end of the year that we should feel a greater impact.

yeah most big companies have six cent power and a 3.1 kwatt s19 unit burns about 4.50 it earns 5.26

only 76 cents.  but if you slowly pull your s19 and put in a s21 it works out on a financial level.

1000 s19 make 760 in a day in six days pull one swap in a s21.

rinse and repeat.

Two days left and seem like the hash rate is keeping up, normally we won't be seeing more than a -/+ deviance by the end of this.
Price is obviously helping even with fees hitting a new low so unless we have another shakedown to visit the 60k area I don't see any mining slowdown either.  If anything happens maybe it will be by the end of the month as maybe some other contracts expire or by the end of June as Q2 closes.

It was a bit unexpected but seems that even 5cents/th is enough to keep all this running, and what new and more efficient gear maybe even 4cents per th/s would keep way more 80% of the hash rate active. Besides, with each passing day there is more and more gear that has paid itself off, so it is mining strictly for cost/revenue, no point in shutting it down even if it makes half a dollar a day, it's still half a dollar more than nothing.

Starting to feel more confident in my bet about the hash rate ATH.