and it is way early so we can ignore that we are +20% LOL
and plus 15 blocks. lets call it good luck
and plus 15 blocks. lets call it good luck
But, everything is crazy and machines keep turning on?
Something is escaping us here.
Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 5. (Read 7712 times)
But, everything is crazy and machines keep turning on?
Something is escaping us here.
Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block: 856798 (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.8611% (2015 / 2102.00 expected, 87 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86914484155758 and 86914485040729
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.1383% and -4.1383%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 14h 30m 25s and 14d 14h 30m 25s
Latest Block: 856798 (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.8611% (2015 / 2102.00 expected, 87 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86914484155758 and 86914485040729
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.1383% and -4.1383%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 14h 30m 25s and 14d 14h 30m 25s
- 4.14%
still waiting on the last block so we are now at -4.20 with a 49 minute gap
Final number was -4.18
Quote
Latest Block: 856894 (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 119.7813% (95 / 79.31 expected, 15.69 ahead)
Previous Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Current Difficulty: 86871474313761.95
Next Difficulty: between 88256357403015 and 104729239030749
Next Difficulty Change: between +1.5942% and +20.5565%
Previous Retarget: Yesterday at 7:54 PM (-4.1857%)
Next Retarget (earliest): August 26, 2024 at 12:24 PM (in 11d 3h 17m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest): August 28, 2024 at 2:47 PM (in 13d 5h 40m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 11d 16h 30m 40s and 13d 18h 53m 37s
Current Pace: 119.7813% (95 / 79.31 expected, 15.69 ahead)
Previous Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Current Difficulty: 86871474313761.95
Next Difficulty: between 88256357403015 and 104729239030749
Next Difficulty Change: between +1.5942% and +20.5565%
Previous Retarget: Yesterday at 7:54 PM (-4.1857%)
Next Retarget (earliest): August 26, 2024 at 12:24 PM (in 11d 3h 17m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest): August 28, 2024 at 2:47 PM (in 13d 5h 40m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 11d 16h 30m 40s and 13d 18h 53m 37s
and it is way early so we can ignore that we are +20% LOL
and plus 15 blocks. lets call it good luck
Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block: 856798 (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.8611% (2015 / 2102.00 expected, 87 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86914484155758 and 86914485040729
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.1383% and -4.1383%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 14h 30m 25s and 14d 14h 30m 25s
Latest Block: 856798 (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.8611% (2015 / 2102.00 expected, 87 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86914484155758 and 86914485040729
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.1383% and -4.1383%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): Today at 7:43 PM (in 0d 0h 10m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 14h 30m 25s and 14d 14h 30m 25s
- 4.14%
still waiting on the last block so we are now at -4.20 with a 49 minute gap
no i know guys 77 and 86 years old. they want a container filled with gear like i described above.
i simply do not have the wealth to do one for my self.
i have three or four people i met when I moved to New Jersey I know them for 28 years.
they are fuck you wealthy. the poorest one is worth 7-8 million the others have over 30 million.
stocks And real estate made them wealthy.
they want to play with btc on the mining level.
but these people are nothing compared to what is happening in Texas.
marathon has 300 megawatt mining setup which is 2.5% of the whole network.
that is serious money 250 x 300 = 75,000 s21s a lot of gear.
300 containers
i simply do not have the wealth to do one for my self.
i have three or four people i met when I moved to New Jersey I know them for 28 years.
they are fuck you wealthy. the poorest one is worth 7-8 million the others have over 30 million.
stocks And real estate made them wealthy.
they want to play with btc on the mining level.
but these people are nothing compared to what is happening in Texas.
marathon has 300 megawatt mining setup which is 2.5% of the whole network.
that is serious money 250 x 300 = 75,000 s21s a lot of gear.
300 containers
When I talked about whales, they were people who have been in Bitcoin since the beginning, who mined with their traditional PCs, and managed to accumulate a lot of coins. Are these the ones who are entering mining with force?
But, if these people you know want to play with mining, why don't they invest in you?
I agreed, it was a dream to have miners, but my opportunity passed, based on the values required.
It really is crazy what's happening in Texas. Who really are these people, to invest so much? New to Bitcoin, or old!?
it is a large commitment if you don’t have the gear and the container for the gear.
Unless you are a whale, and you got into Bitcoin right at the beginning, and were easily willing to spend 50BTC to mine even at a loss.
Could it be that what we are seeing are whales entering the mining market with full force?
no i know guys 77 and 86 years old. they want a container filled with gear like i described above.
i simply do not have the wealth to do one for my self.
i have three or four people i met when I moved to New Jersey I know them for 28 years.
they are fuck you wealthy. the poorest one is worth 7-8 million the others have over 30 million.
stocks And real estate made them wealthy.
they want to play with btc on the mining level.
but these people are nothing compared to what is happening in Texas.
marathon has 300 megawatt mining setup which is 2.5% of the whole network.
that is serious money 250 x 300 = 75,000 s21s a lot of gear.
300 containers
it is a large commitment if you don’t have the gear and the container for the gear.
Unless you are a whale, and you got into Bitcoin right at the beginning, and were easily willing to spend 50BTC to mine even at a loss.
Could it be that what we are seeing are whales entering the mining market with full force?
but all of us over 6 cents are not adding gear.
A medium level miner, at 6 cents, how much would he spend on the current difficulty, in a year of mining?
1 megawatt per hour is about 250 s21s or 50ph it earns 50000 x 4.2 = 2100 a day
it burns 24000 x .06 = 1440 a day
so 1440 x 365 = 525,000 a year. you can find a fixed contract for that.
buy a container for maybe 100,000
buy 250 s21s maybe 750,000
the variables are the 660 daily profit. this is true for today. power paid
now the startup costs set you back 850,000
the power cost is 525,000
first year you are at 1,375,00
next year you are at 525,000 for the power.
So in year one you get 660 x 365 = 249,000 which could be more or lower. that is after power but before paying the s21s off
if it stays at that number it is longer than 3 years to get back the 850,000 .
it is a large commitment if you don’t have the gear and the container for the gear.
but all of us over 6 cents are not adding gear.
A medium level miner, at 6 cents, how much would he spend on the current difficulty, in a year of mining?
like I said better efficient miners = higher hashrates = higher difficulty.
to equal the 13 cents a th from dec 2023 we need 3x the price.
now if we ever bull run again for miners we will get there.
so a 180k price by 2025 is not out of the question.
hash rate is not really dropping much. this means 3,4,5 cent miners are still adding gear .
but all of us over 6 cents are not adding gear.
to equal the 13 cents a th from dec 2023 we need 3x the price.
now if we ever bull run again for miners we will get there.
so a 180k price by 2025 is not out of the question.
hash rate is not really dropping much. this means 3,4,5 cent miners are still adding gear .
but all of us over 6 cents are not adding gear.
I've seen people saying they pay $0.03/KWh
In the UK that price is $0.32/KWh so largely prohibitive to do any large scale mining.
In the UK that price is $0.32/KWh so largely prohibitive to do any large scale mining.
The price of $0.03/KWh is for enterprise contracts only. The price of $0.32/KWh is for the general public. Anywhere, you can get very low contracts compared to the public commercial value, it may not be as low as $0.03/KWh, but it is not impossible.
However, it is not the mining industry that has to force the cost of energy to fall, especially because it is not something that is directly in its hands to be able to do so. The mining industry needs to focus on what it has control over, and what it has control over is the mining hardware. This is where it needs to invest in research to improve.
Instead of investing in buying more machines, they should have used the money to invest in research.
I agree the mining hardware does need to improve both in terms of efficiency and hash rate.
I suspect that's going to be a difficult challenge at best given the ASIC's used in most miners are only a stage or two behind leading edge in terms of silicon geometry and process size.
Unless someone comes up with a more energy efficient way to calculate SHA256 on scale, I dont think there's going to be massive gains.
If the ASIC manufacturers jump to the latest GAA (Gate All Around), Backside power delivery and process nodes for silicon 3nm etc, which apparently offer significant efficiency gains, that may help; however these will likely come at a premium and not be on offer to many manfuacturers until the process nodes have been field tested, so it may be a few years before we see these technologies being used in SHA256 ASICs.
I've seen people saying they pay $0.03/KWh
In the UK that price is $0.32/KWh so largely prohibitive to do any large scale mining.
In the UK that price is $0.32/KWh so largely prohibitive to do any large scale mining.
The price of $0.03/KWh is for enterprise contracts only. The price of $0.32/KWh is for the general public. Anywhere, you can get very low contracts compared to the public commercial value, it may not be as low as $0.03/KWh, but it is not impossible.
However, it is not the mining industry that has to force the cost of energy to fall, especially because it is not something that is directly in its hands to be able to do so. The mining industry needs to focus on what it has control over, and what it has control over is the mining hardware. This is where it needs to invest in research to improve.
Instead of investing in buying more machines, they should have used the money to invest in research.
In a debate I'm having on my local tab, a table appeared with mining cost predictions.
In my opinion, the hardware needs to take an evolutionary leap, so that we don't reach these values in 10 years.
What do you think?
-SNIP-
Fonte: https://cryptoslate.com/power-law-predicts-bitcoin-block-rewards-to-hit-5-5-million-within-10-years/
Fonte: https://cryptoslate.com/power-law-predicts-bitcoin-block-rewards-to-hit-5-5-million-within-10-years/
In my opinion, the hardware needs to take an evolutionary leap, so that we don't reach these values in 10 years.
What do you think?
Its not so much the hardware, but the geopolitical position on energy and the crazies around "net zero" that need to change.
The hardware is scalable, as is the energy efficiency for some part.
What really holds things back is the cost of energy, if you can eliminate that from the equation it becomes a lot easier to make a profit.
I dont know where you're based but energy costs in the UK are 10x higher than elsewhere in Europe or the USA.
I've seen people saying they pay $0.03/KWh
In the UK that price is $0.32/KWh so largely prohibitive to do any large scale mining.
In a debate I'm having on my local tab, a table appeared with mining cost predictions.
Fonte: https://cryptoslate.com/power-law-predicts-bitcoin-block-rewards-to-hit-5-5-million-within-10-years/
In my opinion, the hardware needs to take an evolutionary leap, so that we don't reach these values in 10 years.
What do you think?
Fonte: https://cryptoslate.com/power-law-predicts-bitcoin-block-rewards-to-hit-5-5-million-within-10-years/
In my opinion, the hardware needs to take an evolutionary leap, so that we don't reach these values in 10 years.
What do you think?
Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block: 856455 (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.8923% (1672 / 1743.62 expected, 71.62 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86942843800867 and 87046934593537
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.1070% and -3.9922%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Wednesday at 7:11 PM (in 2d 11h 22m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest): Wednesday at 7:36 PM (in 2d 11h 47m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 13h 58m 26s and 14d 14h 23m 35s
Latest Block: 856455 (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.8923% (1672 / 1743.62 expected, 71.62 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86942843800867 and 87046934593537
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.1070% and -3.9922%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Wednesday at 7:11 PM (in 2d 11h 22m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest): Wednesday at 7:36 PM (in 2d 11h 47m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 13h 58m 26s and 14d 14h 23m 35s
59.7k price about 4.2cents a th
Now if we take the previous adjustment and the current minimum one, the growth would have been just 4.08% over 1 month, or 2% over a period, meaning a bit less than 1 Exa added per day, so 4000 s21 mounted. Doable? I assume yes!
That number is pretty doable in the given time period, however, let's not forgot the 14% drop in price, right after a 10% increase in difficulty, we talking roughly 25% less BTC for all miners, so it is also very likely that the weak miners have just started to capitulate.
And you are right, nothing in mining has made any sense, at least not for the past couple years.
Then how would you explain
Magic, Andromeda level 4 civilization, mass hypnotism, Mikey when was the last time anything in mining made sense and had a straight-out explanation with zero faults in it?
Funny enough, the most plausible one right now is...luck!
Quote
Latest Block: 856189 (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 94.1903% (1406 / 1492.72 expected, 86.72 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 85399788796702 and 85856397435077
Current Pace: 94.1903% (1406 / 1492.72 expected, 86.72 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 85399788796702 and 85856397435077
Now if we take the previous adjustment and the current minimum one, the growth would have been just 4.08% over 1 month, or 2% over a period, meaning a bit less than 1 Exa added per day, so 4000 s21 mounted. Doable? I assume yes!
Maybe standing idle as the companies are bankrupt
Then how would you explain a 10% increase like that if S19s and the like went out of service which is what "should" happen at least in theory, I am not questioning the fact that some miners are adding brand new gears, top of the line most effienct like S21s -- I am questioning the fact that non is leaving from the other side, look at it as a water pipe, it can only hold too much before it would explode or the pump warns out, if you are forcing water in from one side -- water needs to go out from the other side, simple physics.
There does exist a theory that the same people who bought the S21s, got rid of their S19s, so they swapped gears, same power but more hashrate, but then a 60EH difference is not realistic, its 15w/th for S21s pro vs 23w/th for S19 pro, while the difference is huge, it doesn't make sense that hundreds of thousands of them were swapped, I don't know how to explain the dilemma any better, but there some something seriously missing, there is something big we don't know.
Well here are the things we don't know.
How much power is available to mine coins right now at this moment.
What is the make up of on line gear .
What is the make up of off line gear.
How much
over clocked gear.
under clocked gear.
evenly clocked gear.
Maybe standing idle as the companies are bankrupt
Then how would you explain a 10% increase like that if S19s and the like went out of service which is what "should" happen at least in theory, I am not questioning the fact that some miners are adding brand new gears, top of the line most effienct like S21s -- I am questioning the fact that non is leaving from the other side, look at it as a water pipe, it can only hold too much before it would explode or the pump warns out, if you are forcing water in from one side -- water needs to go out from the other side, simple physics.
There does exist a theory that the same people who bought the S21s, got rid of their S19s, so they swapped gears, same power but more hashrate, but then a 60EH difference is not realistic, its 15w/th for S21s pro vs 23w/th for S19 pro, while the difference is huge, it doesn't make sense that hundreds of thousands of them were swapped, I don't know how to explain the dilemma any better, but there some something seriously missing, there is something big we don't know.
historic lows per th and the diff actually got a tiny bit worse.
that is fucking very impressive.
............................................
hard to believe no shift in diff with prices at under 54k
maybe tomorrow or the next day
that is fucking very impressive.
............................................
hard to believe no shift in diff with prices at under 54k
maybe tomorrow or the next day
Actually I don't see anything crazy here at all. While there must be folks that are now "underwater" in terms of actual profit from mining, they may well not think it's permanent and see if they can make it up later (with a higher BTC price). Folks that are still "above water" might think they can drive out some weak miners and do better later. They can't adjust the price of BTC, but maybe they can get better transaction rates in the future?
Mining still remains a "queens race" to the bottom in terms of lowest cost for actual delivered hash rate. That means the most efficient hardware, lowest electric rates, stable surrounding government, and stable infrastructure costs and availability.
Eventually something will have to change, but for the next few months, it's all a "game of chicken". BTC is of course the wild card and affects all players pretty much the same way.
From newhedge:
Latest Block: 855666 (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 97.8937% (883 / 902.00 expected, 19 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 88758065374132 and 89352103800875
Next Difficulty Change: between -2.1049% and -1.4497%
Previous Retarget: last Wednesday at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): August 14, 2024 at 10:10 AM (in 7d 22h 36m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest): August 14, 2024 at 12:27 PM (in 8d 0h 53m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 4h 56m 46s and 14d 7h 13m 46s
We are at 3.9 cents a th
So s21 200th or $7.80 a day burns 85 maybe 90 kwatts
So 8 cent power is $7.20 cost or maybe break even
7 cent power is $6.30 cost or a small profit
6 cent power is $5.40 cost say 2 buck profit
But not sure how many s21s are on line as compared to
All s19s and t19s are lovers
I know some mines are 3 cent cost
So 100 th x 3.9 cents is $3.90
With 75 kwatts burnt at 3 cents is $2.25 power net 1.65 not counting cooling labor infrastructure
We were over 400 eh before s21 launched
So 400eh is fully kind of fucked
we finally dropped a bit
Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block: 855782 (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.3958% (999 / 1047.22 expected, 48.22 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86493146007596 and 87518322062234
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.6030% and -3.4723%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): August 14, 2024 at 5:18 PM (in 7d 5h 33m 13s)
Next Retarget (latest): August 14, 2024 at 9:26 PM (in 7d 9h 40m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 12h 5m 23s and 14d 16h 13m 0s
Latest Block: 855782 (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.3958% (999 / 1047.22 expected, 48.22 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 86493146007596 and 87518322062234
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.6030% and -3.4723%
Previous Retarget: July 31, 2024 at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): August 14, 2024 at 5:18 PM (in 7d 5h 33m 13s)
Next Retarget (latest): August 14, 2024 at 9:26 PM (in 7d 9h 40m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 12h 5m 23s and 14d 16h 13m 0s
maybe we tank some more.
in theory we should drop 7% about 140 blocks off. there is enough time to do that.
historic lows per th and the diff actually got a tiny bit worse.
that is fucking very impressive.
............................................
hard to believe no shift in diff with prices at under 54k
maybe tomorrow or the next day
that is fucking very impressive.
............................................
hard to believe no shift in diff with prices at under 54k
maybe tomorrow or the next day
Actually I don't see anything crazy here at all. While there must be folks that are now "underwater" in terms of actual profit from mining, they may well not think it's permanent and see if they can make it up later (with a higher BTC price). Folks that are still "above water" might think they can drive out some weak miners and do better later. They can't adjust the price of BTC, but maybe they can get better transaction rates in the future?
Mining still remains a "queens race" to the bottom in terms of lowest cost for actual delivered hash rate. That means the most efficient hardware, lowest electric rates, stable surrounding government, and stable infrastructure costs and availability.
Eventually something will have to change, but for the next few months, it's all a "game of chicken". BTC is of course the wild card and affects all players pretty much the same way.
From newhedge:
Latest Block: 855666 (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 97.8937% (883 / 902.00 expected, 19 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 82047728459932.75
Current Difficulty: 90666502495565.78
Next Difficulty: between 88758065374132 and 89352103800875
Next Difficulty Change: between -2.1049% and -1.4497%
Previous Retarget: last Wednesday at 5:13 AM (+10.5046%)
Next Retarget (earliest): August 14, 2024 at 10:10 AM (in 7d 22h 36m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest): August 14, 2024 at 12:27 PM (in 8d 0h 53m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 4h 56m 46s and 14d 7h 13m 46s
We are at 3.9 cents a th
So s21 200th or $7.80 a day burns 85 maybe 90 kwatts
So 8 cent power is $7.20 cost or maybe break even
7 cent power is $6.30 cost or a small profit
6 cent power is $5.40 cost say 2 buck profit
But not sure how many s21s are on line as compared to
All s19s and t19s are lovers
I know some mines are 3 cent cost
So 100 th x 3.9 cents is $3.90
With 75 kwatts burnt at 3 cents is $2.25 power net 1.65 not counting cooling labor infrastructure
We were over 400 eh before s21 launched
So 400eh is fully kind of fucked
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