2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 12.

philipma1957

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Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   842789 (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.2158% (102 / 99.79 expected, 2.21 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77
Next Difficulty:   between 83380646424767 and 85565224652655
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2794% and +2.9067%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:53 AM (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 22, 2024 at 11:36 PM (in 13d 0h 5m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:10 AM (in 13d 6h 39m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 42m 59s and 13d 23h 16m 53s

less than a day in.

we were as high as +11%

we are now+2%

time will tell

mikeywith

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Quote from: stompix on May 09, 2024, 01:14:07 PM

And we have ~~lift off~~ crash, finally! Grin

Bro, the clock is ticking, you have 53 days for Q2 to finish, and you are going to need a lot of hashrate for the difficulty to make a new ATH, Tongue

Anyway, I think we are already in the middle of the chicken game, we just don't know who is going to crash into who, and how fast is it going to happen, again based on the last halving, we should get at least a 13% drop from before the halving diff, however, the main difference between now and then is the source of that hashrate, as you know, those U.S miners are pretty different from the Chinese, the way money works in the U.S is different, so we may end up with less drop or even a lot larger drop.

Here is an interesting chart from coinshares for BTC production cost for publically listed companies using sec fillings which is somewhat accurate, most large miners don't seem to be in deep trouble according to the data, however, this is a bit old, and things have probably changed.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

And we have ~~lift off~~ crash, finally! Grin

-5.62%, way worse or better than the first week was hitting at.
I'm going to ignore this:

Quote

Latest Block: 842736 (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 112.0508% (49 / 43.73 expected, 5.27 ahead)

and I'm going to say loud and clear, no way in hell this will happen!

I'm still betting on another 4-5% drop, and I think that's going to be the lowest we will get, +/1%, unless we have one of those shut downs in Texas, but if I remember correctly those are because of heat waves so not chance anything happening early June, +2 more adjustments from now, right?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: mikeywith on May 07, 2024, 06:05:49 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 07, 2024, 03:22:22 PM

The prices on Ebay are still pretty high IMO, S19 xp goes for $2500++, it's about 22w/th , and costs roughly $18 per TH, on the other side, a brand new Whatsminer M60 which is a 19w/th sells for $22/th , so that's just about $4 per TH but it is 13% more efficient and is brand new.

For it to sell at these prices, the difference needs to be worth it, i would say a fair price for a used S19 xp in todays world would be in the $14/th range.

eBay is always a bit higher than private sellers that want
only crypto to pay.

also eBay protects the buyer.
and eBay allows a cc
plus cc can allow six months interest free payments.
also cc gives discounts and rebates.

So 2400 for a 134th s19 xp is pretty decent as all of the above has value.

Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   842628 (30 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.3599% (1957 / 2073.98 expected, 116.98 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16
Next Difficulty:   between 83162523270790 and 83166518562300
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.6089% and -5.6044%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:48 AM (in 0d 10h 24m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:50 AM (in 0d 10h 25m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 20h 3m 59s and 14d 20h 5m 1s

some down turn in hash. 88t to 83t

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 07, 2024, 03:22:22 PM

The prices on Ebay are still pretty high IMO, S19 xp goes for $2500++, it's about 22w/th , and costs roughly $18 per TH, on the other side, a brand new Whatsminer M60 which is a 19w/th sells for $22/th , so that's just about $4 per TH but it is 13% more efficient and is brand new.

For it to sell at these prices, the difference needs to be worth it, i would say a fair price for a used S19 xp in todays world would be in the $14/th range.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on May 07, 2024, 03:39:57 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 07, 2024, 03:22:22 PM

I am selling a lot of gpus

the PNY rtx a4000 sells well
the PNY rtx a5000 sells well

What were you doing with those GPUs?
Before it was ETH, and currently what was it?

kawpow but I lost my cheap power deal and they are not good for me.

I am very lucky that

the
PNY A5000
PNY A4500
PNY A4000

ALL SELL well for AI developers.

I have made a decent amount of sales of them at decent prices

I have 30 plus cards left to sell

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 07, 2024, 03:22:22 PM

I am selling a lot of gpus

the PNY rtx a4000 sells well
the PNY rtx a5000 sells well

What were you doing with those GPUs?
Before it was ETH, and currently what was it?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on May 07, 2024, 01:50:22 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 07, 2024, 08:20:31 AM

ebay price is a good way to judge how bad things are.

I listed two s19 xps

best prices on ebay

and a return policy

and no one wants them

A sure indicator of a troubled retail market.

https://www.ebay.com/str/philipma1957computergearandmore

no one has a better deal than that and they just sit.

Well, it looks like you've already managed to sell what you put on eBay.
I visited your page and it is empty. But I found it very interesting that you have already sold more than 1.4 articles. He really is an ebay expert.

no one purchased either s19 xp

they are the lowest prices one on eBay and have a two week return policy which no one else offers.

not sold

https://www.ebay.com/itm/166744841411?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/156193348622?

and here is another unit from another seller

https://www.ebay.com/itm/145742623717

a 1 board s19k pro at 999 does 120 volts it is modded like my xp mods

no interest in it. seller has a good record he even sent me an offer for it at 849

asic sales are very slow right now..

I am selling a lot of gpus

the PNY rtx a4000 sells well
the PNY rtx a5000 sells well

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 07, 2024, 08:20:31 AM

ebay price is a good way to judge how bad things are.

I listed two s19 xps

best prices on ebay

and a return policy

and no one wants them

A sure indicator of a troubled retail market.

https://www.ebay.com/str/philipma1957computergearandmore

no one has a better deal than that and they just sit.

Well, it looks like you've already managed to sell what you put on eBay.
I visited your page and it is empty. But I found it very interesting that you have already sold more than 1.4 articles. He really is an ebay expert.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: mikeywith on May 06, 2024, 03:59:49 PM

Quote from: stompix on May 05, 2024, 08:52:06 AM

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I

You may end up being right, but it's too early to judge, I did mention in my "before the halving post"

Quote

Let's look at the 2020 halving

Price= 10k (50% down from ATH)
total difficulty drop = - 45.6% (from 25 to 13.6) this took from 11th May to 16 July, or let's say 2 months or an average of 4 epochs.

When we climbed again to ATH in mid-November, difficulty climbed back to 21.7T, which is a 13% decrease, I would imagine the lowest difficulty drop we can ever get would be a 13% if the halving happens while BTC price is 70k, any lower than that would contribute to more drop in hashrate.

We would need to wait for 4 epochs to be certain of the halving effect, and as for this halving, we may have to wait for a bit longer because transaction fees during and after the halving changed everything and made mining more profitable than before the halving, it makes no sense for us not to drop that 13% or even more, I still think we will do just that in 4 epochs when the chicken game is over, as for the numbers phill laid out above, they are correct but they don't take into account any other expenses, those large miners can't survive with a few cents profit post power bill, their expences are far greater than just that, they would get to the point where they have to liquidate just to pay interest.

Also, most importantly, Phill I pray for your fast recovery, get well soon my friend.

Thank you it is healing on schedule.

No more bleeding even if I sneeze.

I see the Doctor for follow. Up in 8 days.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   842448 (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.3751% (1777 / 1863.17 expected, 86.17 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16
Next Difficulty:   between 84060483253225 and 84114742038688
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.5897% and -4.5281%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 2:48 AM (in 1d 17h 32m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 3:02 AM (in 1d 17h 45m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 16h 3m 50s and 14d 16h 17m 34s

we have a decent drop. many are selling gear on ebay at low prices

ebay price is a good way to judge how bad things are.

I listed two s19 xps

best prices on ebay

and a return policy

and no one wants them

A sure indicator of a troubled retail market.

https://www.ebay.com/str/philipma1957computergearandmore

no one has a better deal than that and they just sit.

mikeywith

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

Quote from: stompix on May 05, 2024, 08:52:06 AM

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I

You may end up being right, but it's too early to judge, I did mention in my "before the halving post"

Quote

Let's look at the 2020 halving

Price= 10k (50% down from ATH)
total difficulty drop = - 45.6% (from 25 to 13.6) this took from 11th May to 16 July, or let's say 2 months or an average of 4 epochs.

When we climbed again to ATH in mid-November, difficulty climbed back to 21.7T, which is a 13% decrease, I would imagine the lowest difficulty drop we can ever get would be a 13% if the halving happens while BTC price is 70k, any lower than that would contribute to more drop in hashrate.

We would need to wait for 4 epochs to be certain of the halving effect, and as for this halving, we may have to wait for a bit longer because transaction fees during and after the halving changed everything and made mining more profitable than before the halving, it makes no sense for us not to drop that 13% or even more, I still think we will do just that in 4 epochs when the chicken game is over, as for the numbers phill laid out above, they are correct but they don't take into account any other expenses, those large miners can't survive with a few cents profit post power bill, their expences are far greater than just that, they would get to the point where they have to liquidate just to pay interest.

Also, most importantly, Phill I pray for your fast recovery, get well soon my friend.

philipma1957

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Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: stompix on May 05, 2024, 08:52:06 AM

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I was right with some large miners being trapped into this game and ramping up operation because stopping would bankrupt them instantly so they are betting everything on the future prices.

Of course, speculation on how much new and more efficient gear is already in place, but I would be surprised to hear more than 1/3 is below 0.02j/Gh.

Luckily for some miners, there are still runes being minted.

Quote from: philipma1957 on April 30, 2024, 07:16:43 PM

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

Hope you're getting better by the day Phil!

The sinus repair seems healed. MOST pain now is in the cut straighted and reattached septum. Maybe 7-10 days and that will stop.

As for mining and miners. We will not see a big turn down say 70t vs 85t.

A 100 th unit makes 4.40 usd a day.
It burns 75 k-watts

At 6 cents it is 4.50 a tiny loss or break even.

AT 5 cents it is 3.75 a small profit.

But if 50% of your 6 cent farm is t21 or s21 and the other 50% is s19 100th.

You get 8.80 for the s21 and burn 85 k-watts
You get 4.40 for the s19 and burn 75 k-watts

So 13.20 earned and 9.60 burned at six cents gives me 3.60 profit for mining 1 s21 and 1 s19j pro 100 th

Also the s19jpro with brains can tweak down to maybe 27 watts a th.

So I think a lot of farms are mixed with s19 pro j 100th and s21 they can mine on with out knocking off the s19

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I was right with some large miners being trapped into this game and ramping up operation because stopping would bankrupt them instantly so they are betting everything on the future prices.

Of course, speculation on how much new and more efficient gear is already in place, but I would be surprised to hear more than 1/3 is below 0.02j/Gh.

Luckily for some miners, there are still runes being minted.

Quote from: philipma1957 on April 30, 2024, 07:16:43 PM

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

Hope you're getting better by the day Phil!

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on May 01, 2024, 03:33:18 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on April 30, 2024, 07:16:43 PM

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

if all works out I will sell them.

Good recovery, and then let us know here when you have this type of equipment built, so we can appreciate it. Wink

thanks bro.

well current numbers for earning are brutal

0.0476 usd a th

or

$4.76 for 100 th

$9.52 for 200 th

so the s21 earns $9.52 since it burns 92 kwatts you need 7 cent power

10 cent = $9.20
9 cent = $8.28
8 cent = $7.36
7 cent = $6.44
6 cent = $5.52 so if you have all s21 and have 6 cent power you are smiling since you clear 9.52-5.52= 4 bucks a unit

but if you have 7 cent power and all s19 units

$4.76 earned and 75kwatts burned means

10 cent = $7.50
  9 cent = $6.75
  8 cent = $6.00
  7 cent = $5.25
  6 cent = $4.50 basically all in the red

Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   841652 (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.7369% (981 / 1003.72 expected, 22.72 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16
Next Difficulty:   between 86169221431587 and 86670929047296
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.1962% and -1.6268%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 8, 2024 at 4:28 PM (in 7d 6h 26m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 8, 2024 at 6:31 PM (in 7d 8h 29m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 43m 46s and 14d 7h 46m 48s

lets see if we shake out more miners price dropped under 58k

Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   841942 (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.5029% (1271 / 1317.06 expected, 46.06 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16
Next Difficulty:   between 85067458539019 and 85469762182716
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.4468% and -2.9901%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 9:15 PM (in 5d 7h 0m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 10:55 PM (in 5d 8h 39m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 30m 47s and 14d 12h 10m 33s

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 30, 2024, 07:16:43 PM

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

if all works out I will sell them.

Good recovery, and then let us know here when you have this type of equipment built, so we can appreciate it. Wink

philipma1957

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Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on April 30, 2024, 06:04:20 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on April 30, 2024, 03:53:58 PM

I think I can do all this.

What will be the hash power capacity?

What chips will you use and how will you try to sell the equipment?

this would be the t21 board

it would max at around 55-63 th

it would have the epic controller

it would have the loki chip

it would have a special psu not the bitmain apw3++

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

if all works out I will sell them.

joker_josue

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Activity: 1722

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 30, 2024, 03:53:58 PM

I think I can do all this.

What will be the hash power capacity?

What chips will you use and how will you try to sell the equipment?

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on April 29, 2024, 07:18:12 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on April 29, 2024, 04:42:38 PM

I will develop good practical home miners for usa home miners.

This looks interesting. Can you share more details about this?

And never say never. Sometimes new opportunities may arise. If it weren't for the distance, maybe we could make a good team. Cheesy

USA stock power is 120 volts

Normal outlet can do 1800 watts.

So to hook up a miner with no electrical work at all.

So a top notch miner needs to be under 1500 watts. At full speed.

I think a top notch home miner needs to run from 400-1200 watts.
It needs to have a flexible gui.

I think I can do all this.

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 29, 2024, 04:42:38 PM

I will develop good practical home miners for usa home miners.

This looks interesting. Can you share more details about this?

And never say never. Sometimes new opportunities may arise. If it weren't for the distance, maybe we could make a good team. Cheesy

philipma1957

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Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on April 29, 2024, 01:38:12 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on April 29, 2024, 08:36:16 AM

A good site and I would go back into larger scale mining.

5-6 cent power would be good at least 2 years worth of it.

Well, finding a place with 6 cents for energy in the US must be complicated.
It has to be a huge energy contract, to get values close to that.

I am done for now shit happens and it did.

I will continue to mine a bit at a loss and sell off the gpus.

I will likely never mine at the 200-250kwatt level again.

I will develop good practical home miners for usa home miners.

I am playing with 1 board t21 using a 1500 watt 120 volt psu that can range from 12.5volt to 15.2 volt

with the Loki spoof chip. I hope to have a working model of this in under 1 -2 weeks.

As to why the mine ended I will say I failed to keep the other three guys in agreement as to the best options possible. So we broke it up instead.

Not the best way but it is the way it happened.

Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 12. (Read 7243 times)