Topic: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? (Read 8044 times)

Good ol days when we had that 10k wall @3200CNY on Huobi! I hope they come back  !

Good old days of 5th Oct., 2014, when we had 30k BTC in Bitstamp asks @300 devoured!

doo(d), look at the date of the OP

Nice wall, but will it stay?

it was 15k wall.

Last time we saw that was at $70, after the drop to $50.. and a dip in to the 60s.

I haven't seen anything over 3K anywhere since july 2013. the good old days.

Have we seen one of these recently?

50k BTC bid wall?

Oh I believe. In self fulfilling prophecies; you only have to convince enough speculators and your prediction will automatically become truth, no matter what you predict.  Except those times you get it wrong.  Thats the playing on color and tripling: big chance of small gains. Small chance of getting it very wrong and suffering catastrophic losses. Overall its a zero sum game and your odds are the same as everyone else's. Believe it or not.

Bitcoin technical analysis based on the bitcoin charts has proved to be extremeley successful to predict future prices moves. Believe it or not.

Thats the point. Bitcoin fundamentals are largely unchanged from a year ago. All thats influenced the price is speculation, and until something fundamentally changes, all that will change its price significantly is speculation. Thats the only thing a chart shows you. Its as useful as a guide for the future as an unlabeled chart of some random company (admittedly, also with largely unchanged fundamentals).

I agree with much of what you're saying but this:

You know the technologies offered by BitCoin. You would at least have to know what this unknown company has offer for this to be a legitimate comparison. Using historical data, you can better speculate on what other speculators speculate! Still, nothing prepares you for the freight train sell-offs that occur at seemingly random times.

If nothing else, its assets and dividend forecasts. On top of that of course there is speculation based on how IBM will evolve in the future, due to its products, roadmaps, managment team, competition, the markets it operates in etc, there are lots of things you could look at to make educated guesses. What makes little to no sense is to only look at the past 6 or 12 month of its stock valuation to "predict" IBMs future.



No, not at all. IBM is not going be to worth $5 next year, nor $500. If something extreme and unforeseen happens it might double or cut in half, but bitcoin could easily be worth $0.1 or $100 next year. Sure you can make educated guesses and speculate on that,  and bet money on bitcoin becoming more widespread, adopted by major internet shops, or outlawed or hacked or whatever changes in its fundamentals. I have no problems with that. If more people become optmistic about its long term forecasts, price will go up, and vice versa. BTC price dropping to $1 next month or rising to $10 changes nothing in that respect.

So all this guessing whether it will be $2.0 of $3.0 next week or next month, by looking at the previous months is simply laughable. As long as nothing fundamentally changes for bitcoin, things like its legal status or acceptance by the public, the only thing driving the price up and down by potentially factor of 100x or more is speculators speculating what other speculators will speculate. Thats what you most here are trying to "predict" by looking at past charts.

Its really like showing you a chart of a random stock chart of the last 2 years, without telling you what company it is,  and letting you predict how it will evolve.

Good luck with that.

Then there's a price of the hardware measured in US Dollar. It's the same as the price of a Bitcoin measured in US Dollar. The price of the physical assets now doesn't guarantee future value either.

What I mean is, we can forget about the "fundamental value" when we trade something, Bitcoin doesn't have a fixed minimum price. Whether the price we see now comes from speculation, bubbles, or commerce, it doesn't matter. As long as we have market liquidity, we can use, save and transfer the coins.

So what's the "fundamental value" of IBM's share?

Is it $0.01, $1, $100 or more?

It's a part of a company, yes, but it represents a completely unknown amount of cash flow. All the financial reports we see are history, and we all are predicting the future.

Same thing goes for Bitcoin. No company, currency or whatever will guarantee the value of something. We guarantee each other's value using our own judgement. Only an idiot will sell Bitcoin at "fundamental value" when someone offers $2.4 per coin.

I tend to agree with you. The ask walls are starting to build even faster now. And the bidwalls are slowly sinking.
I think we might be in for a massive downward movement very shortly.

Well, it's *yours* personal interpretation of fundamentals. Mine is different. And that's creating the price. Market is just trying to find equilibrium of all people's mind.

By rate the sell wall has been growing since the rise I'd doubt that is what is happening.

Anyway I'd expect my target limit order to be filled soon.

Yeah, you can play roulette on color and triple your stake each time you lose. Big chance of small profits, small chance of losing every last chip. That you can change, what you cant change is the overall odds.

Wrong. Stocks are shares in a company, and any company has fundamentals rooted in a real economy. Same goes for a currency, there are HUGE economies behind it.  The fundamentals of bitcoin as a currency currently represent perhaps $0.01 per BTC. All the rest is speculation and speculating on future speculation. Trying to predict short term increase or decrease in that is about as sensible as trying to predict cat /dev/rnd.


Sure, go ahead and speculate on a roulette table if thats what you feel. The outcome is also unknown. Just dont kid yourself that previous "patterns" or results tell you anything about the next game.