50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? - page 2.

wareen

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Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data

Quote from: P4man on November 20, 2011, 08:46:53 AM

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

To deny that any information about the future price can be extracted from the price history is just as hilarious.
It's not that _all_ people and bots currently trading with BTC suddenly switch to a totally different and unrelated set of models.

It's a bit like with the weather: if you spend great effort and carefully study the history of various parameters, you can slowly build models that can give you a pretty good idea of what the weather will look like in the near future. Of course, there are times when your predictions are wrong, but you can do a lot better than just rolling dices.

zhoutong

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Quote from: P4man on November 20, 2011, 08:46:53 AM

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition. Prices are determined by demand and supply, not the fundamentals. The fundamentals may influence the demand and supply. The extent of the influence is determined by the utility.

Bitcoin's fundamental has never changed - the easiest, fastest and cheapest way to send money internationally without being tracked or taxed. Bitcoin is not a stock that pays unknown amount of dividends or a fiat currency that pays unknown amount of interest.

Without looking at the price history, we all have absolutely no idea about the exchange rate of EUR/USD, for example. The exchange rate is determined by multiple unknown factors, such as imports, exports, economic growth, interest rates, etc.

Anything unknown is worth speculating.

P4man

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Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

S3052

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This is quite possible, and if so, then there is a huge short squeeze possible as cypherdoc has mentioned in a separate thread.

bittenbob

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Quote from: bitcoinBull on November 19, 2011, 03:04:50 PM

Well, I spoke too soon. The consensus was right, the $2.20 wall for 50k was removed, panic selling ensued down to $1.9999.

It does appear to be a very aggressive type of market maker.

There's now bids for 100k over $2. In my favor, the fact that $2 held has some starting to accept the possibility of a bottom.

After the first drop below $2 briefly to 1.94998 or whatever it was there was some invisible reistance at $2 by the looks of it. I would say this was due to people being leveraged at bitcoinica but I do have to wondering if $2 is the real bottom here. There were some heavy sells into $2 but it just would not cross that mark despite there being no visible bidwalls there. This type of behaviour is what makes me think this is the real bottom too.

bitcoinBull

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rippleFanatic

Well, I spoke too soon. The consensus was right, the $2.20 wall for 50k was removed, panic selling ensued down to $1.9999.

It does appear to be a very aggressive type of market maker.

There's now bids for 100k over $2. In my favor, the fact that $2 held has some starting to accept the possibility of a bottom.

Revalin

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Quote from: tvbcof on November 17, 2011, 04:35:09 AM

I would welcome one more opportunity to double-down if we are lucky enough to get deeply into the $1.xx's

If you're speculating on long term success, buy and hold. I wish Bitcoin wasn't a speculative asset, but it is what it is, so I'm not going to rag on you for that.

Market makers and arbitrageurs can milk the volatility wherever it goes, and they're a positive influence on the whole.

I'm just mocking the ones who're capitulating all the way down and panic-buying at every twitch back up. They don't know what their strategy is and acting on emotion. They're textbook speculative noobs, making things suck for both themselves and the rest of us.

old_engineer

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Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 12:44:47 AM

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours. It was painfully obvious what was going on. I'm beyond baffled.

Some of it is purchased to be resold for arbitrage with other exchange(s). I've done that before, and it's one reason why the price _always_ creeps back up in the minutes after a big sell-off.

tvbcof

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Quote from: Revalin on November 17, 2011, 03:21:39 AM

Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 12:44:47 AM

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours. It was painfully obvious what was going on. I'm beyond baffled.

We still have a whole lot of True Believers who aren't sure when the bad times are over and they really don't want to miss their opportunity to get in on the Biggest Thing Ever. They'd be long now if they hadn't already lost 80% and just couldn't afford to lose any more while this thing was going down, but Despair will be over SOON! I mean, it's been bottomed for weeks, right? So one of these waves is going to launch it! And they're not going to be left out.

At least that's how it goes in the stock market. And Vegas.

I would welcome one more opportunity to double-down if we are lucky enough to get deeply into the $1.xx's.

FWIW, I've never spent more than about 30 minutes in a Casino in Nevada, though I was passing through Reno and payed for my hotel and dinner with a 50 cent bet in a slot machine earlier this year. Gambling has never really been something that excites or interests me...until Bitcoin came along I suppose one could argue. And I've never trusted the SEC enough to play in the stock market.

Revalin

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Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 12:44:47 AM

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours. It was painfully obvious what was going on. I'm beyond baffled.

We still have a whole lot of True Believers who aren't sure when the bad times are over and they really don't want to miss their opportunity to get in on the Biggest Thing Ever. They'd be long now if they hadn't already lost 80% and just couldn't afford to lose any more while this thing was going down, but Despair will be over SOON! I mean, it's been bottomed for weeks, right? So one of these waves is going to launch it! And they're not going to be left out.

At least that's how it goes in the stock market. And Vegas.

bittenbob

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Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 01:09:18 AM

Quote from: bittenbob on November 17, 2011, 01:06:08 AM

There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.

Or...he's the one who sold. What appears to be going on is he puts up a ton of money, let's bids accumulate ahead of his giant bid (because people feel more confident when there appears to be a lot of support behind them), and then sells down into what accumulates.

Not the first time that theory has been mentioned in this thread. I think this person is having too much fun manipulating the market to simply get out of it. My guess is a stock trader who can't legally do this in the real world or someone who has been watching too many 80's stock market movies. It is entirely possible bitcoin crashes down to zero but I do not see that happening. There is some stability point that will eventually reached and my guess is we are somewhere aroudn this area. Even just buying and selling a few thousand coins on these waves could make someone a lot of money.

As I said I think they are having too much fun to simply be cashing out. Of course the issue frequency won't drop until 2013 but once that does happen the price will increase significantly again. Wait to see another big bidwall within 6 hours, probably at 60k coins with all the extra cash he has earned from making people panic. The last time the wall disappeared was about this time of day as well.

proudhon

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Quote from: bittenbob on November 17, 2011, 01:06:08 AM

There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.

Or...he's the one who sold. What appears to be going on is he puts up a ton of money, let's bids accumulate ahead of his giant bid (because people feel more confident when there appears to be a lot of support behind them), and then sells down into what accumulates.

bittenbob

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There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.

Dan The Man

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Take a look at the history, the money is already there, not for 3.5, but for 2.9 at least. It's just waiting on the sidelines for a good time to jump back in after the first crash a few days ago.

proudhon

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Quote from: bittenbob on November 17, 2011, 12:55:40 AM

Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 12:44:47 AM

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours. It was painfully obvious what was going on. I'm beyond baffled.

I certainly didn't buy any but perhaps he has taken down his bidwall to get some rest again. This is what seemed to happen the other day. Give it 6 hours and there will be another 50k coin bidwall. I noticed just before he got rid of it it was about 58k coins instead of 50k and it still hasnt dropped down near as much as the other day. He is trying to trigger a panic sell by some holders and they dont seem to be falling for it as much this time. 50k demand removed from the exchange is bound to drop prices a bit. I am still optimistic we will see the price climb above $3.50 in the next couple of days to a week.

Why? Why will that much money go into bitcoins? There is absolutely no reason for that much money to suddenly jump in.

Dan The Man

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how about next couple of minutes?

edit: sorry, I thought you said 2.5

bittenbob

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Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 12:44:47 AM

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours. It was painfully obvious what was going on. I'm beyond baffled.

I certainly didn't buy any but perhaps he has taken down his bidwall to get some rest again. This is what seemed to happen the other day. Give it 6 hours and there will be another 50k coin bidwall. I noticed just before he got rid of it it was about 58k coins instead of 50k and it still hasnt dropped down near as much as the other day. He is trying to trigger a panic sell by some holders and they dont seem to be falling for it as much this time. 50k demand removed from the exchange is bound to drop prices a bit. I am still optimistic we will see the price climb above $3.50 in the next couple of days to a week.

Cluster2k

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Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 12:44:47 AM

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours. It was painfully obvious what was going on. I'm beyond baffled.

Catch the trading wave and ride it in. Market is rising again. The trend is your friend, and so is the manipulator.

proudhon

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I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours. It was painfully obvious what was going on. I'm beyond baffled.

tvbcof

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Quote from: proudhon on November 17, 2011, 12:32:19 AM

Weeeeeeee! My condolences to everyone who bought in the past few hours. New lows are on the horizon.

Interesting. Looks like a nice little rope-a-dope move on the part of 'the manipulator'. He seems to have sucked a pretty good chunk of coin out of the weak hands.

Topic: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? - page 2. (Read 8044 times)