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Topic: 7nm miner thread - page 3. (Read 7509 times)

full member
Activity: 315
Merit: 120
September 23, 2017, 07:57:10 PM
#51
Germanium, like Silicon, is a semiconductor material.
Germanium was actually more common than Silicon in the early days of semiconductor manufacturing, but it turned out Silicon had a higher tolerance for heat AND was less expensive to make wafers for (silicon is literally dirt-cheap - a large proportion of "dirt" is Silicon, along with Aluminum and Iron).
... the relatively poor heat capacity is going to cause it's OWN issues.

BitFury reports to use immersion cooling on their website to nearly double their efficiency. This would probably give them an advantage to understand the tech well if the next generation is going to run hotter.  Seeing those numbers makes me think about researching into it more.

Even when 7nm reaches actual production - what are the YIELDS going to be like?
 

They are reporting 10 Th/s with 500W on the GMO 7nm chipset, so that's about double the efficiency of an S9 - not a large jump like 28 to 16/14nm - but still significant.

 

 


hero member
Activity: 595
Merit: 506
September 22, 2017, 02:46:24 PM
#50
Whether or not they are ready for 2018, It's cool they are producing PCI-E cards. Will be fun to have a decent miner in my PC.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
September 21, 2017, 03:29:43 PM
#49

Unlike most people on this list, I am in the chip biz.  I cannot say much.  I can say this:  A US$300M investment in a 7nm-based chip design will get you pretty much that.  Then you'll need more money to get your chips fabbed and you systems built and installed and everything else.  A few $millions will go a long way towards physical plant for installation, but it takes a lot of money to play in the 7nm game. 

There were some comments in this thread about the move from 22/20nm to 16nm.  The 20nm node was largely skipped by the industry because 16nm node added so much value with the introduction of finFETs, that it wasn't worth it to continue investing in 20nm.  The 16nm node still has a ways to go, and has had a number of rounds of refinements.  I don't know which actual 16nm process is being used by BMT, but they could probably get some mileage just by re-spinning into a newer 16nm process.  If they cared about improving the product.  However they're in a situation where they can sell all they can make, and price is hardly an object right now, so why waste the engineering resources? 

7nm is a huge wall to climb for anyone, and I don't think anyone's going to be building a 7nm miner for at least another year, maybe 2. 

If someone does come along and proves me wrong, I'll buy it.

Thanks for the insight and comments.....
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
September 21, 2017, 07:17:28 AM
#48
More issues to consider.

 Even when 7nm reaches actual production - what are the YIELDS going to be like?
 How long will they take to improve and by how much?

 What is the design cost going to end up being (14/16nm design is EXPEN$IVE compared to anything before it).

 What is the cost per chip going to end up being like?

 What is the CAPACITY going to be like the first couple years?



 Keep in mind that the S7 is still viable *NOW* if you have fairly cheap electric despite being a generation outdated.
 The S9 isn't going to immediately become unprofitable even when 7nm reaches actual production in a miner design.






This  fact makes the rush to 7nm  become more of a walk then a run.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1030
September 21, 2017, 04:12:15 AM
#47
More issues to consider.

 Even when 7nm reaches actual production - what are the YIELDS going to be like?
 How long will they take to improve and by how much?

 What is the design cost going to end up being (14/16nm design is EXPEN$IVE compared to anything before it).

 What is the cost per chip going to end up being like?

 What is the CAPACITY going to be like the first couple years?



 Keep in mind that the S7 is still viable *NOW* if you have fairly cheap electric despite being a generation outdated.
 The S9 isn't going to immediately become unprofitable even when 7nm reaches actual production in a miner design.



sr. member
Activity: 558
Merit: 295
Walter Russell's Cosmogony is RIGHT!
September 20, 2017, 07:23:34 PM
#46
We made Erbium doped Fibre Grad Bragg Filters at JDSU R&D...and used several other exotic elements.
Pushing Light...

Re: Original topic..there is no big threat coming down the pipe for a LONG time..
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1030
September 19, 2017, 03:46:12 PM
#45
To be picky, the original transistor (and many original diodes) were point-contact devices.

 Reliability of those wasn't particularly impressive though, folks LOVED junction-type transistors when those started showing up as commercial production parts.

 Germanium still gets used even today in some signal processing and radio usage for detection diodes, but much less so then in the past as AM and SSB modulation has largely been replaced by phase and frequency modulation techniques.

sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
September 19, 2017, 09:48:43 AM
#44

 Germanium, like Silicon, is a semiconductor material.
 Germanium was actually more common than Silicon in the early days of semiconductor manufacturing, but it turned out Silicon had a higher tolerance for heat AND was less expensive to make wafers for (silicon is literally dirt-cheap - a large proportion of "dirt" is Silicon, along with Aluminum and Iron).

 Germanium has the advantage of a lower "band gap" than Silicon, which makes it easier to push electrons around in the material - this might buy 1 or 2 more generations of semiconductor manufacturing before MAJOR structural changes have to happen due to the increasing issues with Quantum-level effects on small node sizes, but I'd not bet on Germanium going past about 5 nm without running into the SAME issues Silicon is hitting at 10 - and the relatively poor heat capacity is going to cause it's OWN issues.


 Moore's Law isn't dead yet - but it's been limping a bit for the past decade, and it's definitely not looking good past the NEXT decade.

Interesting points you mention here.   Thanks for the input!
legendary
Activity: 3822
Merit: 2703
Evil beware: We have waffles!
September 18, 2017, 03:54:01 PM
#43
I'll say one thing - it will be interesting to see how thermally stable using Ge will be...
And I bet it rules out high-power apps such mining chips Wink

The first transistors were made using Ge and even today it excels at having about 1/2 the band gap voltage that Si does, a Ge P-N junction voltage is around 0.3V and Si is around 0.7V (yes doping lowers it but still applies) and is more radiation tolerant (Aerospace industry loves it) but using Ge brings with it 3 things: High intrinsic leakage, thermal drift, and lower max allowable junction temps than silicon-based devices (also lower max Vc but that does not apply here). Those 3 things are what allowed Si-based devices to take over semiconductors so many decades ago.

Gotta assume that using different techniques the leakage factor has been solved, that just leaves the junction voltage drift vs temperature.. As for max temperatures -- the temps that current mining chips run at will destroy them in a heartbeat.

edit: damnit - ya beat me to the main points.... Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1030
September 18, 2017, 03:24:08 PM
#42
Going by commentary out of IBM, *THEIR* 7nm process will be using a "hybrid" Silicon/Germanium wafer.
No solid word out of anyone else except an Intel comment that "10nm will be the end of the line for pure silicon".


 Economic reality is that no miner maker will be making new gear on the new node(s) for a while, but that they WILL have to make the move for competative reasons probably 2 years more-or-less from now when the new node(s) start getting affordable yield figures and the relative efficiency has become known between them.

If the new nodes take longer to deploy than the current projections (like the 14/16nm generation did), it could be 3-5 years before miner makers will be ABLE to move to them.



Interesting... Thanks for pointing that out...  Off to learn what Germanium wafer is I go.... lol


 Germanium, like Silicon, is a semiconductor material.
 Germanium was actually more common than Silicon in the early days of semiconductor manufacturing, but it turned out Silicon had a higher tolerance for heat AND was less expensive to make wafers for (silicon is literally dirt-cheap - a large proportion of "dirt" is Silicon, along with Aluminum and Iron).

 Germanium has the advantage of a lower "band gap" than Silicon, which makes it easier to push electrons around in the material - this might buy 1 or 2 more generations of semiconductor manufacturing before MAJOR structural changes have to happen due to the increasing issues with Quantum-level effects on small node sizes, but I'd not bet on Germanium going past about 5 nm without running into the SAME issues Silicon is hitting at 10 - and the relatively poor heat capacity is going to cause it's OWN issues.


 Moore's Law isn't dead yet - but it's been limping a bit for the past decade, and it's definitely not looking good past the NEXT decade.


sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
September 18, 2017, 03:10:32 PM
#41
Bit of food for thought for those that think 7nm will show up next year.

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/08/intels-next-generation-chip-plans-ice-lake-and-a-slow-10nm-transition/

Given the issues with 14/16nm, and the reported issues getting 10nm up to speed, I'm starting to think that *2019* might be excessively optimistic for actual 7nm production to arrive.



Thanks for sharing!
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
September 18, 2017, 02:59:29 PM
#40
Going by commentary out of IBM, *THEIR* 7nm process will be using a "hybrid" Silicon/Germanium wafer.
No solid word out of anyone else except an Intel comment that "10nm will be the end of the line for pure silicon".


 Economic reality is that no miner maker will be making new gear on the new node(s) for a while, but that they WILL have to make the move for competative reasons probably 2 years more-or-less from now when the new node(s) start getting affordable yield figures and the relative efficiency has become known between them.

If the new nodes take longer to deploy than the current projections (like the 14/16nm generation did), it could be 3-5 years before miner makers will be ABLE to move to them.



Interesting... Thanks for pointing that out...  Off to learn what Germanium wafer is I go.... lol


legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1030
September 11, 2017, 10:51:32 PM
#39
whelp that would be epic, but why not making those cores more universal? like GPU they can mine all the altcoins including bitcoin, that would be more profitable lol.
Been tried, failed miserably, re: SFARADS attempt in 2015 for a BTC and x11(?) combo chip. You can find it with a Github search.

At least the chip lives on as fodder from just about all of the scam vaporware rigs these days....
Still biggest problem is that being hard-wired each different algo requires different cores so in essence you get something more like a SOC - 1 big chip comprised of different IP blocks. Just not efficient use of real-estate.

 3 options that have ever been built as ASIC.

 Gridseed and the GC 3355 - which was very quickly not competative on SHA256 efficiency if it EVER was, but was the only option for some months for Scrypt.
 SFARDS SF100 - second-generation of the GC3355, again by the time it shipped it was no longer competative on the SHA256 side but was fairly close on the Scrypt side.

 SFARDS was the merger of Gridseed and WiiBox - they appear to have built and sold ONE batch of the SF100 then quietly died, or got out of cryptocoin entirely.

 The Baikal technically is multi-algo, but X15 INCLUDES all of the other algos supported by the Baikal miner so it was just a matter of "breaking out" input and output to the applicable sub-algos to allow it to mine on more than one algo (but not at the SAME time, the Gridseed and SFARDS chips were designed to do both Scrypt AND SHA256 at the same time).

 I'm inclined to say that the Baiklal is the only one that was SUCCESSFUL at multi-algo, the GC3355 lived for a long time as Scrypt but not SHA256 and the SFARDS was never a success at all.

legendary
Activity: 3822
Merit: 2703
Evil beware: We have waffles!
September 10, 2017, 03:14:44 PM
#38
Should be amusing to read what the masses of folks here folks with no ties to the Semiconductor Industry come up with for their Speculative dreaming thoughts.  Grin
300ths at 500W, shipping Nov 2017!  Wink
whelp that would be epic, but why not making those cores more universal? like GPU they can mine all the altcoins including bitcoin, that would be more profitable lol.
Been tried, failed miserably, re: SFARADS attempt in 2015 for a BTC and x11(?) combo chip. You can find it with a Github search.

At least the chip lives on as fodder from just about all of the scam vaporware rigs these days....
Still biggest problem is that being hard-wired each different algo requires different cores so in essence you get something more like a SOC - 1 big chip comprised of different IP blocks. Just not efficient use of real-estate.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1030
September 10, 2017, 02:44:42 PM
#37
Bit of food for thought for those that think 7nm will show up next year.

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/08/intels-next-generation-chip-plans-ice-lake-and-a-slow-10nm-transition/

Given the issues with 14/16nm, and the reported issues getting 10nm up to speed, I'm starting to think that *2019* might be excessively optimistic for actual 7nm production to arrive.

legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1030
September 10, 2017, 01:58:21 PM
#36
Should be amusing to read what the masses of folks here folks with no ties to the Semiconductor Industry come up with for their Speculative dreaming thoughts.  Grin

300ths at 500W, shipping Nov 2017!  Wink

whelp that would be epic, but why not making those cores more universal? like GPU they can mine all the altcoins including bitcoin, that would be more profitable lol.

 They would be less profitable as there would be a ton of wasted space on the chip and a bunch of circuitry that even in a "powered down" state is STILL going to pull a little power.

 The whole REASON that an ASIC is efficient is that it is dedicated to doing ONE thing VERY VERY WELL, as opposed to something like a GPU that has to be set up to do many different things and is not as good at each one.

legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
September 10, 2017, 11:18:28 AM
#35
Should be amusing to read what the masses of folks here folks with no ties to the Semiconductor Industry come up with for their Speculative dreaming thoughts.  Grin

300ths at 500W, shipping Nov 2017!  Wink

whelp that would be epic, but why not making those cores more universal? like GPU they can mine all the altcoins including bitcoin, that would be more profitable lol.

a universal asic chip hmmm

 i think  that is like saying why not make the color black  look like every color.

As I understand an asic chip is more or less hard wired to one al-gore-rhythm

and a gpu chip can be programed  to do any al-gore-rhythm
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1006
beware of your keys.
September 09, 2017, 11:18:52 PM
#34
Should be amusing to read what the masses of folks here folks with no ties to the Semiconductor Industry come up with for their Speculative dreaming thoughts.  Grin

300ths at 500W, shipping Nov 2017!  Wink

whelp that would be epic, but why not making those cores more universal? like GPU they can mine all the altcoins including bitcoin, that would be more profitable lol.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1030
September 09, 2017, 10:41:49 PM
#33
I doubt we'll see 10 nm (TSMC) or 7nm (GF) available to miner makers before 2019 or VERY VERY LATE 2018.

 The first experimental chips might show up in early 2018 or very late 2017, but there won't be capacity to spare from the BIG long-term contract customers for months after that.


 With that said - I'd predict the S11 will be around 35 TH at around 1300 watts (at the wall with the AP3++) and available in Febuary 2019 at the soonest.


thanks, i was about to sell all s9 and l3 d3
because of good market price on eBay.
the problem is no colo now and I m stuck to run machines desperately look for good amp industrial zone small rentals, keep searching

 Since the D3 is at best the #3 miner CURRENTLY available for X11, it might be worth selling it off early batch ones soon before the BIG difficulty jumps hit.
 S9, no point - it's the best AND the most cost-effective on the market WHEN it works (though BitFury based gear SHOULD be capable of getting close).
 L3+ is pretty much a tossup for the best on the market WHEN it works AND is the most cost-effective.
member
Activity: 69
Merit: 10
September 09, 2017, 07:19:57 PM
#32
I'm pretty sure that Japanese company is way optimistic on their announced timeframe - not so much blowing smoke but haven't looked at ALL the factors.
I'm wondering if our friend Sonny Vleisides has gone to Japan...  This sounds a bit like his type of operation.
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