Topic: 7nm miner thread - page 4. (Read 7509 times)

thanks, i was about to sell all s9 and l3 d3
because of good market price on eBay.
the problem is no colo now and I m stuck to run machines desperately look for good amp industrial zone small rentals, keep searching

Ja. Rather like that infamous line from a BFL exec over their 28nm node Monarch delays that went something along the line of, "In the semiconductor industry delays are very common and are to be expected" as he shrugged off the growing clamor of very pissed off customers who had pre-ordered and Paid In Full months earlier..

In other words, they know damn well they are basing their PR projections on Fairy tale assumptions that all ongoing process problems will be miraculously solved and no other glitches popping up. They also damn well know that is NOT how the Real World works.

 22nm is big in the memory industry and was for Intel, but most others skipped it as it wasn't ENOUGH of an improvement over well-optimised 28nm to be worth the hugh development costs.

 I'm pretty sure that Japanese company is way optimistic on their announced timeframe - not so much blowing smoke but haven't looked at ALL the factors.

Unlike most people on this list, I am in the chip biz.  I cannot say much.  I can say this:  A US$300M investment in a 7nm-based chip design will get you pretty much that.  Then you'll need more money to get your chips fabbed and you systems built and installed and everything else.  A few $millions will go a long way towards physical plant for installation, but it takes a lot of money to play in the 7nm game. 

There were some comments in this thread about the move from 22/20nm to 16nm.  The 20nm node was largely skipped by the industry because 16nm node added so much value with the introduction of finFETs, that it wasn't worth it to continue investing in 20nm.  The 16nm node still has a ways to go, and has had a number of rounds of refinements.  I don't know which actual 16nm process is being used by BMT, but they could probably get some mileage just by re-spinning into a newer 16nm process.  If they cared about improving the product.  However they're in a situation where they can sell all they can make, and price is hardly an object right now, so why waste the engineering resources? 

7nm is a huge wall to climb for anyone, and I don't think anyone's going to be building a 7nm miner for at least another year, maybe 2. 

If someone does come along and proves me wrong, I'll buy it.

It sounds like there is some skepticism on the 7 nm.

 Do you think the Japanese firm claiming they'll be out with a 7 nm next year is full of hot air or do you take them serious?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I was just trying to be a smart-A$$ in the above post - hopefully twas taken as such!  

Seriously, I have no clue regarding time-frame, specs, design, and true hash rate specs. But...

I'm also wondering is the current design of just about all the models that have come around going to remain the same or come out with some very innovative new design none of us have thought about.

I certainly hope I'm around, and will be able to get one from whomever puts it out. Most probably Bitmain, but who knows.? Price? Who knows. But if they have made the extraordinary leap to 20TH or even 25TH. That would be amazing and the cost might be that amazing also. Maybe twice the price? Is that out of line with what others may think?

If it's something like 20-25 TH/s, difficulty is going to Jupiter!!

Perhaps it would also be wise to wait for the 2nd or maybe 3rd iteration of the miner just to get any of the production trouble ironed out. Be amazing if the first batch was rock-solid. doubtful...

Anyhow, I'm just rambling with a nice Friday early-evening beer buzz.  

OK, I can dream. But it would be very nice to have four new 7nm miners. Then I will have that psychological point of  I shall simply have 100TH/s. But who knows what the whole BTC and mining scene / landscape will be like then. The "having" 100TH/s is a nice psychological place to be.

Of course I would still have my approximate 60TH/s mini farm.( add another 13TH when I can get my S9 controller card replaced and get the one bad hash board repaired. Not looking forward to dealing with it at present. It is in pieces and I have used some parts swapping around.
Anyway, I seriously doubt I have the ability to have four more miners in my house for many reason, power, heat nose,yada.. yada... yada  Might be time to start thinking of hosting somewhere.

OKAY, I know I'm starting to ramble... I'm making plans on power sources in my house for a new appliance (miners) that is not even a solid, material object that can be touched. Imagination-ware!Bye!

Let us hit some BLOCKSSSSSSSS!!!

That is all. You may now return to your regularly scheduled programs already in progresssssssssssss  

yeah  2-5  covers it  and my gut tells me  about 4 on the button.

also  if we are all around in 2021  my guess is that 7nm chip  will be around longer then the 16/14 chip say 10 years or more

much like  the gasoline engine does not get much improvement anymore chips will reach their limits very soon.

Going by commentary out of IBM, *THEIR* 7nm process will be using a "hybrid" Silicon/Germanium wafer.
No solid word out of anyone else except an Intel comment that "10nm will be the end of the line for pure silicon".


 Economic reality is that no miner maker will be making new gear on the new node(s) for a while, but that they WILL have to make the move for competative reasons probably 2 years more-or-less from now when the new node(s) start getting affordable yield figures and the relative efficiency has become known between them.

If the new nodes take longer to deploy than the current projections (like the 14/16nm generation did), it could be 3-5 years before miner makers will be ABLE to move to them.

I know there  was  a higher failure rate for the i7 6700x cpu's.

 I had one fall myself  and it is the only intel cpu I ever killed since 2005 other then 1 i7 in a 2011 mac mini.  this would be out of over 350 intel cpus I have worked with on modded gear.

Even forgetting  all the engineering feats need to stop the bleeding or leaking of electrons in the 16/14's .

 I have read the 7's  will not be silicon at all.
 My chip design/build knowledge does not touch yours, but the economic reality is  that the 7nm is not needed for mining  bitmain is making a fortune with  16/14 mode.

Much less the fact that they have yet to get current 16/14nm chips as stable/reliable as the 22nm node is/was. I believe you have made mention of vid card failure rates going up as node size went down... I know I keep seeing pre-order ads for the Latest Samsung Galaxy (10nm CPU and base-band chips) but are they shipping yet?

so two technical guys say it is a long wait.

and every economical  analysis I do shows no need for them  to make them  this year or next year or two years from now.


Plus no one  meaning :

samsung
apple
intel
nvidia
amd

 has shown  working quality 7nm gear  for the present  moment.

this is a long wait.

please remember the three screen shots above and that the L3 is 3.3%  for power and 96.7%  for profit on hashnest

and bit main has shown us they don't give a darn about which coin makes the money.  we will not be seeing 7nm gear from bitmain  for years.

 They can plan all they want - but if the chipmaking capacity does not EXIST their plans aren't going to happen 'till it does - and established players are more likely to get access to that capacity first.
 I also question their stated plan to locate in Northern Europe, especially after KNC died with THEIR farm near a Northern Europe hydro plant....

@ promojo
In addition to ^^ That is pretty much word-for-word what Bitfury said in mid-2015 about their 16nm chip and the Peta farm they were building that was going to be filled with them. Just change 'starting in' to be late Dec. 2015. We saw how well that went for all players including TSMC's biggest customers and THAT was using a node size already in pre-priduction status. In short is pure PR bullshit strictly for Investors consumption.

As of April this year there were a couple more than 10 EUV stepper systems on the planet (Cymer/ASML who make them won't give an exact number and just say "more than 10"). Right now even the most recent ones can barely produce 100 wafers/hr. Even if one is in Japan the tech is still far from doing more than characterizing results (defining models vs real-world) and building simple test structures and circuits. Not even Intel and IBM have eported going past that stage.

As for the $300million: If you think that will buy them time/space in line for 7nm tech forget it. Intel, IBM, Apple, Samsung and others have invested BILLIONS with their Foundry partners into the ever-smaller nodes sizes and they will be 1st in line for months after the tech is viable enough to be called Production-ready.

The last sentence in 2nd to last paragraph is the one single real non-puffery Truth statement in the entire PR: Emphasis mine...

I do not know the chip industry but I know making money

and  here is the deal :

 pretend I am Bitmain.

I run hash nest  I make un real crazy good money with hash nest
look at the s-7 line for them

so  if they sell the s-7  by the gh and charge 35% of what it earns  you make 65% correct.

so you say fuck yeah no mess no fuss and buy it.

no auditor no regulation  but they pay you don't care.

So how about  they have zero s-7's running put them all in cold storage and use s-9's

the s-9 costs  only 16%  of the coins you  earn

huge mother fucking profit quasi legal but you can bet your left nut on it as a fact.

so they have zero incentive to build new miners  as it would sabotage their s-7 hash-nest  business

you won't see new gear from them until  the s-7  becomes a loser.

but here is the deal they have 3-4 cent power  they charge 8 cent if you use hash nest then they say that

8- 3 or 4 cents is there profit


 so  if the s-7  is really all s-9's  that 3-4 cent power cost  is effectively ½ to  1.5-2 cent 

power so if the s-7 shifts from 35% to 90%  and people dump it.  they will announce a power drop from 8 to 6.5 cents s-7 gets another extension.

they also can play games with bcc vs btc so the financial need for 7nm chips is far far far away.

and if they do  need them  they have enough cash that they will get to market ahead of any asic miner builder.

they would then wait to bring to market for us a long time.

beastly monster chips at the 7nm level may not come for 3 to 5 years as a home / farm miner

unless intel,amd,apple,nvidia decide to build an asic miner



35%   for s-7



16% for s-9




3% for L-3

BREAKING - https://qz.com/1071926/japans-gmo-internet-group-plans-a-300-million-investment-in-bitcoin-mining/ - GMO Internet in Japan plans to develop and roll out 300M project creating their own 7nm chips in early 2018.  

The ones at risk are the ones still trying to recover their investment because they will be four times less productive,” Guiterrez says. He expects most major players will be able to upgrade as the technology for 7 nm chips becomes generally available to the foundries who do much of the work of fabricating the chips. “The other [mining chip makers] will surely follow and create their own 7 nm chips if they are not already doing it,” he says. “As [chip fabricators] get the new technology, everybody can access it.”

We've got miners right now generating hundreds of dollars in profits per month, I don't think too many of us are concerned with when 7nm is coming out to be honest.

That sounds realistic.   I would be surprised to see it in mid-late 2018 to be honest.   BUT....  I have been told to watch closely @ TSMC and Canaan has made it clear their units are reduced in cost to prepare for these chips.   Are they going to simply drop the price further come 2018 when 16nm becomes more affordable due to quantity and build-out/production?

I doubt we'll see 10 nm (TSMC) or 7nm (GF) available to miner makers before 2019 or VERY VERY LATE 2018.

 The first experimental chips might show up in early 2018 or very late 2017, but there won't be capacity to spare from the BIG long-term contract customers for months after that.


 With that said - I'd predict the S11 will be around 35 TH at around 1300 watts (at the wall with the AP3++) and available in Febuary 2019 at the soonest.

Good site, bookmarked to my suppliers list. From there, Breakdown on how EUV is generated
Wish I could post some pics from my toy, er, testbed at work where I'm researching the next drop in via sizes for chips... Uber-fine patterning is all good and dandy but there are also discrete layers that need to be connected to produce working chips. Bleeding-edge for those vias which are laser drilled holes then plated to conduct signals/power are currently in the low 10's of micron diameters. With the rise of 3D chip architectures our customers are demanding the ability to pack more connection points into the same or smaller areas so to that end I'm already slashing holes sizes by at least 3x. Now as with the EUV source it is more a matter of getting more average power so the process is fast enough to support consumer electronics production volumes...

Here's just the light source for the EUV - my buddy works for Cymer and installs these around the world, lucky sot!

https://www.cymer.com/euv-source/hvm-i   (crap, I see that link is dead, but look around and you'll find it...!)

It all runs under HiVac, and is a couple meters tall...!  Damn that looks like fun to me!!!