Topic: [9 TH] Bitparking Pool, DGM 0%,vardiff,stratum,Merge Mining - page 61. (Read 163893 times)
Sorry but I may need to jump the boat very soon due to the soaring difficulty.
I'm not into FUD, but this is an interesting theory: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/1050-th-bitmintercom-1-pplnspays-txfees-mergedminingstratumgbtvardiff-27062
Block withholding is always a legitimate concern, especially on PPS pools. In my darker moments as I was watching my PPS reserve whittle away I was wondering if some asic devices weren't block withholding since it's in their best interests to do so (helps stop difficulty increasing but they get the same reward). I did check to make sure the big miners were actually solving bitcoin blocks occasionally. That's the paranoia I mentioned in my previous post. The variance in mining really is quite large and it's possible to have long periods of the wrong side of it. 
Once is accidental. Twice is coincidence. Three times is conspiracy. Ever since the recent difficulty increase, my sense is that nearly ALL pools have been having "Bad luck." Of course blocks will take longer due to difficulty increase. But "luck" or CDF has been consistently bad for BitMinter, Slush, and it seems Bitparking as well.
The first two pools I know first-hand by mining and checking their pool's own stats. Their threads in this forum coincide with Bitparking users' own complaints of poor luck. Is this coincidence or conspiracy?
I'm not into FUD, but this is an interesting theory: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/1050-th-bitmintercom-1-pplnspays-txfees-mergedminingstratumgbtvardiff-27062
The first two pools I know first-hand by mining and checking their pool's own stats. Their threads in this forum coincide with Bitparking users' own complaints of poor luck. Is this coincidence or conspiracy?
I'm not into FUD, but this is an interesting theory: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/1050-th-bitmintercom-1-pplnspays-txfees-mergedminingstratumgbtvardiff-27062
The only thing we can do is stick it out.
Honestly I like this methodology or pps the best.
The other pools and the way they divvy out the shares can be very cruel. Think of this scenario. You have been crunching this one for 60 hours, then your internet goes out for an hour or power failure, or your system goes down for some reason. you bring it back up to find that during that hour down time the hash was solved, but since you were gone for more than what is it 15 minutes? You are considered a 'hopper' and got nothing for those 60 hours of work you put in. This is the reason I choose PPS, and now, this method of mining. Ive been burnt many times.
Aaron
Honestly I like this methodology or pps the best.
The other pools and the way they divvy out the shares can be very cruel. Think of this scenario. You have been crunching this one for 60 hours, then your internet goes out for an hour or power failure, or your system goes down for some reason. you bring it back up to find that during that hour down time the hash was solved, but since you were gone for more than what is it 15 minutes? You are considered a 'hopper' and got nothing for those 60 hours of work you put in. This is the reason I choose PPS, and now, this method of mining. Ive been burnt many times.
Aaron
Bad Luck is Just Bad.
Are we sure there isn't something going on with the backend re:internet access or the nodes pier connections?
Believe me this always goes through an operators mind during long rounds. Paranoia sets in. I have checked and things are fine. We're solving namecoin blocks at a normal rate for example. We're just not finding hashes close enough to the bitcoin target. The best hash we've found so far is:Are we sure there isn't something going on with the backend re:internet access or the nodes pier connections?
Code:
00000000000001d26460346f49a03d529a843b1603e90507824582f2edb98b7f <= so far
00000000000001AA3D0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 <= bitcoin target
00000000000001AA3D0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 <= bitcoin target
We've had a bunch close to that but nothing over. Currently luck is around 19%. We've had worse (about 14% I think). I'm sure other pool operators have had worse too. OzCoin had a 100+ million share round recently. It's definitely not the best timing just as we switch to DGM scaring a bunch of high hash rate miners off unfortunately but what can you do.
Heh. Know what would crack me up? For this block to go up to around the 72 hrs mark. And when it's finally solved, for it to be an orphan teehee.
That's cruel man.
True, but hilarious if it happened.
According to the pool hashrate we should be averaging a block in under 14 hours. so between 1 and 2 a day...
Bad Luck is Just Bad.
Are we sure there isn't something going on with the backend re:internet access or the nodes pier connections?
Heh. Know what would crack me up? For this block to go up to around the 72 hrs mark. And when it's finally solved, for it to be an orphan teehee.
That's cruel man.
Heh. Know what would crack me up? For this block to go up to around the 72 hrs mark. And when it's finally solved, for it to be an orphan teehee.
Surely the length of time it takes to solve the block has no bearing on the reward?
It does with DGM. In longer rounds slightly more is paid in an attempt to offset the pain of the long round. In shorter rounds less is paid to help the pool build up a buffer. You can see this reflected in the existing payouts on that page. This is in turn affected by the variance the pool has been experiencing in that future rounds will pay more to make up for the lesser amounts paid in the unlucky rounds.The actual effect of the adjustments is controlled by the parameters the pool operator chooses for o, f and c as described in the double geometric method post. The parameters I picked result in up to approximately 5.8 BTC extra per block payout to correct for variance/long rounds. That's why you're seeing the existing estimate increasing much more slowly around the 30BTC value.
Ahhh, thanks very much for pointing that out.
My fault for not paying more attention in DGM classes.
Surely the length of time it takes to solve the block has no bearing on the reward?
It does with DGM. In longer rounds slightly more is paid in an attempt to offset the pain of the long round. In shorter rounds less is paid to help the pool build up a buffer. You can see this reflected in the existing payouts on that page. This is in turn affected by the variance the pool has been experiencing in that future rounds will pay more to make up for the lesser amounts paid in the unlucky rounds.The actual effect of the adjustments is controlled by the parameters the pool operator chooses for o, f and c as described in the double geometric method post. The parameters I picked result in up to approximately 5.8 BTC extra per block payout to correct for variance/long rounds. That's why you're seeing the existing estimate increasing much more slowly around the 30BTC value.
I'd also suspect that with missing for this long the pool has lost a some of it's hash rate so those still mining are gaining % against those who have stopped this round.
Surely the length of time it takes to solve the block has no bearing on the reward?
It does with DGM. In longer rounds slightly more is paid in an attempt to offset the pain of the long round. In shorter rounds less is paid to help the pool build up a buffer. You can see this reflected in the existing payouts on that page. This is in turn affected by the variance the pool has been experiencing in that future rounds will pay more to make up for the lesser amounts paid in the unlucky rounds.The actual effect of the adjustments is controlled by the parameters the pool operator chooses for o, f and c as described in the double geometric method post. The parameters I picked result in up to approximately 5.8 BTC extra per block payout to correct for variance/long rounds. That's why you're seeing the existing estimate increasing much more slowly around the 30BTC value.
When viewing the DGM Estimate on the http://mmpool.bitparking.com/blockstats stats page, I noticed that the longer this block runs for the higher the estimate is getting.
Is this correct?
Surely the length of time it takes to solve the block has no bearing on the reward?
Not currently feeling very lucky at 23%
Is this correct?
Surely the length of time it takes to solve the block has no bearing on the reward?
Not currently feeling very lucky at 23%
Well, long stretches of bad luck like these, especially when they occur to a smaller pool can really put it down. Since you removed pps the pool hashrate went down 80 percent (!). I don't care about the payout method one way or another, but it's fairly frustrating, even for me, to see 40 hrs without a block. On a larger pool with a more constant rate of block generation, in the last 2 days I would've had over 12 btc by now. Since I chose to stick to Bitparking, I only have 2,8. I can feel that loss and I realize it will most likely not be returned by better luck in the future. I'll stick to Bitparking for now, but no amount of alt coins being merge mined can hedge such losses.
BQX15yoCQcjCQdK6XQrgbVJAmq5qQc7zyj
I've fixed the duration wraparound.
Hate to say it, but this is why I prefer PPS (and came to this pool).
Quite a bit of bad luck lately. Sure you can say it'll even out, but I don't see it that way.
At any point of time and looking to the future, you can assume the luck will be even from there on out. So if we've seen bad luck for the last little while, looking ahead from now doesn't mean that it should be lucky and make up for it. Looking ahead in time it should be even, and the last bad luck is a loss. Maybe I'm over simplifying.
You are pretty much correct. Past events have no effect on future events. You can't jump onto an unlucky pool based on an assumption that their luck must turn and therefore you'll be mining at a lucky period for example. Even if you prefer PPS this is bad for a PPS pool you mine at. Then the pool takes on this bad luck and eventually disappears. Quite a bit of bad luck lately. Sure you can say it'll even out, but I don't see it that way.
At any point of time and looking to the future, you can assume the luck will be even from there on out. So if we've seen bad luck for the last little while, looking ahead from now doesn't mean that it should be lucky and make up for it. Looking ahead in time it should be even, and the last bad luck is a loss. Maybe I'm over simplifying.
I think there is something wrong with the pool... or does the time counter reset after 24 hours? I'm shown a new round began about 25 minutes ago, yet the paid rounds table doesn't show it, like it didn't actually finish. I'm not seeing the amount credited either in my payments area. Best explanation I think is a quirk of the timer or something... so, what's this about?
The timer wrapped. I'm not showing days, I'll add that. I didn't think it'd be much of an issue when the pool was 5+Th/s The low hash rate makes it look like this is a long block. Luck is currently 30% (that's difficulty divided by number of shares). That's not excessively long. We've had luck lower than 15% before. But that was at a higher hash rate so the actual time for the round was only 12 hours or so. Now it seems much worse because of the longer time to solve.
Hate to say it, but this is why I prefer PPS (and came to this pool).
Quite a bit of bad luck lately. Sure you can say it'll even out, but I don't see it that way.
At any point of time and looking to the future, you can assume the luck will be even from there on out. So if we've seen bad luck for the last little while, looking ahead from now doesn't mean that it should be lucky and make up for it. Looking ahead in time it should be even, and the last bad luck is a loss. Maybe I'm over simplifying.
Quite a bit of bad luck lately. Sure you can say it'll even out, but I don't see it that way.
At any point of time and looking to the future, you can assume the luck will be even from there on out. So if we've seen bad luck for the last little while, looking ahead from now doesn't mean that it should be lucky and make up for it. Looking ahead in time it should be even, and the last bad luck is a loss. Maybe I'm over simplifying.
I think there is something wrong with the pool... or does the time counter reset after 24 hours? I'm shown a new round began about 25 minutes ago, yet the paid rounds table doesn't show it, like it didn't actually finish. I'm not seeing the amount credited either in my payments area. Best explanation I think is a quirk of the timer or something... so, what's this about?
It's a roll over issue...round has been going for 24 hours plus 25 minutes... EXTREMELY bad string of luck for the pool right now
I think there is something wrong with the pool... or does the time counter reset after 24 hours? I'm shown a new round began about 25 minutes ago, yet the paid rounds table doesn't show it, like it didn't actually finish. I'm not seeing the amount credited either in my payments area. Best explanation I think is a quirk of the timer or something... so, what's this about?
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