Topic: A potential top @ $12.16: the bearish case (Read 7628 times)

I think this drop to ~$8 is just opening a buying opportunity to a lot of people.  Although bank transfers to exchanges takes up to three days.  So I expect the price to be going to ~$9 for Friday but a lot of people could sell off their coins they receive back off Pirate so maybe staying around ~$8.50.  I can't see it going below $7 (for long) unless all the buying pressure that caused the rally was based around Pirate.  Even if it was I can't see it going below $6 and staying there.  That's my view on the outlook anyway.

That will most definitely not be the case.  I doubt the price will be out of the $2 to $15 range a year from now. 

Updated the trend analysis here:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1dW5IQnpUWTllZHc

In the grip of the red candles, so far.

I would too, but if I'm lucky and my count in the OP is accurate, than we should ultimately see more panic here than we did during the wave A decline from $32 to $2. A waves are generally coupled with a psychological backdrop of disappointment and surprise whereas C waves are when outright fear takes hold. If it does unfold in this manner, I hope to be buying like crazy at the bottom.

But... we'll just have to wait and see what happens I guess. There is no crystal ball, only probabilities.

I think Pirate may have managed to slow the acceleration down a bit like he has before but the long term trend is definitely up tho maybe after a bit more correction but I'd like a bit more stability like from March 2012 to June 2012.

You will find out ... in the longer-term.

You ever heard of the turtles?

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1czhubUR6R2RoQVU

Just wondering if the longer-term trendline holds.

A year from now, ya'll will be complaining about 25 cent price swings on $100 BTC.

... and ... meanwhile it's on it's way back up again

The drop was probably a dump of BTC and the usual jumping around after that, but since the latest rise hasn't been a typical random bubble but is being backed by some sort of demand/support for BTC, it's continued after the dump.

... and if I'm wrong, yep I'll admit it, and the facts will show it too if I am wrong, I don't see any point in pretending I'm psychic

It's rooted in psychology and the chart he showed was sent out on August 7th.  Somehow he made a pretty accurate description of what happened two weeks later.

If a day and a half is "sustained" in your world, I can understand the confusion.

I actually know quite a lot about the subject. The "wave-4 tricky, blah, blah, blah, surpassing the upper channel trend-line, blah, blah, blah" you wrote is a bunch of nonsense derived from fairy tales dressed up to look like science. It is nonsense because it is just a bunch of pseudo-science built from Elliott's numerical hallucinations. It has as much validity as scientology and homeopathy, and of course, astrology. If someone could come up with a rational theoretical basis, or even some conclusive empirical evidence, then the subject might be transformed from mathematical allegories to a real science. But they can't. So, it remains stuck in the realm of confirmation bias, with the same stature as the science of street light interference (aka SLI to the believers).

As for the $12 mark, there was no top at $12, as your precious fairy tales predicted. The rise above $12 was not obviously unsustainable because the price was sustained well above your magic Fibonacci number. The fact that the price fell a few days after your misprediction was just a coincidence. You can not and should not try to take credit for anything here. Anyway, the fall in prices was caused an unpredictable event, not by crowd psychology or mood swings, which Elliot Wave Principle is purported (without substantiation) to be based on.

Oh btw, your $12.16 top looks more like a support level than a resistance level. Oh, but of course, resistance levels become support levels. What a lucky break -- your Xanadu remains intact. Isn't 20-20 hindsight precious?

/vomit

Are y'all crazy? It jumped $2.40 in one day. Even the biggest bulls could see that was ending badly. And the "correction" has taken us roughly 50c below the start of that spike. If there were any bearish sentiment about the broader rally, stop-losses and fear would have pushed the price a lot lower. Especially given how light the buy side was at that point.

I'm not saying that we've seen the lowest point yet, especially being the weekend, but if you think this is likely to last, I think you're in for a big surprise. A genuine rally has just dipped, after weeks of non-stop growth. This is where the fun really starts.

Cypher, can I put my dancing bear back up now?

The daily and weekly underlying indicators say otherwise

Exactly! What a good opportunity to buy now.

On the upside, if the price more or less holds, it solidifies the fact that the gains prior to that massive jump were solid, not speculative, and the growth we were seeing before should continue

You might actually want to take the time and learn about something before you completely discredit/insult it. The rise above $12 was obviously unsustainable and the vicious consequences were just as predictable: http://imageshack.us/f/839/389b.png/ (taken from past subscription chart 389)

the wave-4 ended up being a larger running flat which was tricky, but the aftermath of the price surpassing the upper channel trend-line was the same -- an extended 5th (a classic commodity/currency bubble wave) before a plunge.

No. No it's not. There's a 30% difference in price between three days ago and the crash. Don't start believing your own hype and don't quit your day job.

Somewhere between 10.60 and 15.40 it will be 12.16 and the week is not over yet. Hell, I'm waiting for the "I sold everything at 15.40 and bought back at 10.60" threads. Hindsight analysis to verify vague predictions does not science make. TV evangelist prophets get a lot of donations for that kind of scam. Nowhere have I seen a stable 12.16 or anything close in a long time. It will take a prediction of stability at a price before I can believe any type of prediction methodology. But in case you are wondering, 12 is about the break even cost of the average small time bitcoin miner using pools, so that is a good reason to believe 12 can be stable.