Thanks, now I get it. I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!
Here's a Bull vs Bear visual to go with the explanation given by BrightAnarchist.
Nice picture.
Topic: A potential top @ $12.16: the bearish case - page 5. (Read 7735 times)
Here's a Bull vs Bear visual to go with the explanation given by BrightAnarchist.
Nice picture.
Thanks, now I get it. I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!
Here's a Bull vs Bear visual to go with the explanation given by BrightAnarchist.
- Volume has been decreasing on each major move since mid-July
While trading volume at the top exchanges might not be at heavy levels, there is trading through alternative methods that is gaining in significance.
With individual traders finding ways to trade without going through Mt. Gox or the other top exchanges, there is now less low hanging fruit feeding the traders and bots. As a result, the reported trading volume can be down with no real difference to supply and demand.
FashCash4Bitcoins (a cash-out service) reports hitting record levels pretty consistently. Bitcoins can be bought directly from Bit-Pay (minimum $10K USD order size) and Tangible Cryptography (amounts up to $5K USD), for instance:
- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.996082
- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoins-direct-support-thread-87094
Many alternate exchanges show consistently growing volumes.
Now that there is a trust history, there are buyers and sellers who have traded with each other and no trade over-the-counter directly, without any intermediary.
So the volume at the exchanges can go down but that doesn't mean there is any less demand for bitcoins should there be any plateau or downtrend.[/list]
Interesting point. Is anyone attempting to track aggregate demand across all trading options, to the extent that that can be done?
- Volume has been decreasing on each major move since mid-July
While trading volume at the top exchanges might not be at heavy levels, there is trading through alternative methods that is gaining in significance.
With individual traders finding ways to trade without going through Mt. Gox or the other top exchanges, there is now less low hanging fruit feeding the traders and bots. As a result, the reported trading volume can be down with no real difference to supply and demand.
FashCash4Bitcoins (a cash-out service) reports hitting record levels pretty consistently. Bitcoins can be bought directly from Bit-Pay (minimum $10K USD order size) and Tangible Cryptography (amounts up to $5K USD), for instance:
- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.996082
- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoins-direct-support-thread-87094
Many alternate exchanges show consistently growing volumes.
Now that there is a trust history, there are buyers and sellers who have traded with each other before and now mostly trade over-the-counter directly, without any intermediary.
So the volume at the exchanges can go down but that doesn't mean there is any less demand for bitcoins.[/list]
Then at around $1 we begin the giant Wave III to the moon (i.e. past $100/coin probably).
$1 isn't going to happen without legal intervention. I would be seriously shocked to see $2 again.
Thanks, now I get it. I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!
Yeah, and of course the bearish case is actually bullish anyway... it all depends on the time frame!
That's why I said I'm long no matter what, but if we do get a nice drop to these cheap levels, I'm buying way more coinzzzzzzzzzzz
Thanks, now I get it. I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!
Could you label the bullish case on a chart for us? I'm confused by your description: is the $12.16 price the end of a B wave or a C wave?
I haven't really investigated the bullish case, but here's the bearish case in better detail:
Wave I is the impulse to the bubble high of $32. It has a 4th wave in the 50 cent to $1 area.
Wave II is where we may be now.
Wave A of Wave II was the "crash" down to $2, then we began a B wave up
Since then we've done an even smaller a-b-c to form the B wave, which should end eventually with a nice lower high, potentially at around $12 (but there's a wide range here, I'm just making a guess based on volume).
So next would be Wave C down to end the larger Wave II. Then at around $1 we begin the giant Wave III to the moon (i.e. past $100/coin probably).
Could you label the bullish case on a chart for us? I'm confused by your description: is the $12.16 price the end of a B wave or a C wave?
- Volume has been decreasing on each major move since mid-July
- $12.16 is ~38% of the move to the all-time high, a Fibonacci resistance level
- We could be ending a C-wave move of an a-b-c countertrend that began at the $2 low (which itself is a B wave, making the "crash" the A wave and the C wave yet to come)
- The stability around $5 resembles more a sideways B-wave than a deep 2nd wave retracement prior to a large impulse move
- On a logarithmic chart, the $2 low was still not within the 4-th wave area of the 5-wave bubble move to $32. This 4-th wave area is between 50 cents and $1.
I of course have no crystal ball, and the super-bullish scenario is also possible where we're starting a 3-of-3 up to past $32. But - if there's a bearish case to be made, then here it is, and here's me hoping for a buying opportunity in the future.
Either way, I'm long BTC, but if it gets to the $1 level, I'm buying even more with both hands. Fundamentals are the biggest reason to be bullish, especially with Silk Road growing like it has, so I'm quite curious so see how the next few months unfold.
Log Chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#ig6-hourztgOzm1g10zm2g25zcvzl
Discuss.
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