basement kids who invested their lunch money
I think we're a bit past that
Topic: A potential top @ $12.16: the bearish case - page 4. (Read 7738 times)
I think we're a bit past that
If people start panic selling even at $12, that means the demand still mostly comes from manipulators and basement kids who invested their lunch money, rather than serious investors, this is not going to be good for bitcoin.
but, no way can this true.
If people treated them as a deflationary currency in its own right as buyers, I think you'd be right. But most listings on SR are tied to a fixed local fiat currency amount.
You've got people buying BTC to buy anonymous drugs, a lot of BTC being held in escrow, and then BTC being sold by the sellers to exchange for their local fiat.
My point is, there are only so much up for grabs at a certain price point. The price is going up because people are holding onto them, period.
Anyway, if I could predict the future I would have bought BTC at 8 cents each when I had the chance.
A SR user buys 20 bitcoins and then buys some weed with it right away, the seller of that weed then sells the 20 bitcoin right away. all this dose is support the current price.
that's the only effect the bitcoin economy will EVER have on bitcoin price, it will support the price, at wtv the price.
if the bitcoin economy sells 1 billion dollars worth of stuff everyday, bitcoins will shoot up high enough so the bitcoin economy isn't messing with the supply needed for speculation.
speculation will ALWAYS eat up 90% of the supply.
The rise has giving new hope for 100$ bitcoins, but before that can happen new money has to come into the market, and for new money to come into the market opportunity must be presented. 7.22 will the opportunity of a life time.
That's probably the first thing you've said that I have to agree with. But I think your bear would be surprised the hidden interest a tiny perceived buying opportunity can bring. If you've ever traded real stocks, take a look - this stock was my personal plaything back then and still has to be my favourite, ever. You'd be stunned how many of the upward moves were prompted by a 2-5 cent dip.
That said I just don't see any major buying opportunities presenting themselves in the near future. Slow as she goes.
but, no way can this true.
If people treated them as a deflationary currency in its own right as buyers, I think you'd be right. But most listings on SR are tied to a fixed local fiat currency amount.
You've got people buying BTC to buy anonymous drugs, a lot of BTC being held in escrow, and then BTC being sold by the sellers to exchange for their local fiat.
My point is, there are only so much up for grabs at a certain price point. The price is going up because people are holding onto them, period.
Anyway, if I could predict the future I would have bought BTC at 8 cents each when I had the chance.
...I think we're getting to the point where demand for it as an exchange medium (i.e for Silk Road transactions) is beginning to exceed available supply...
again i hate being a bear, makes me feel like and asshole...
but, no way can this true.
I think we're getting to the point where demand for it as an exchange medium (i.e for Silk Road transactions) is beginning to exceed available supply, so I'm in the bullish state of mind. Especially when you factor in all the speculators who are holding onto them when the purchased them at a bargain earlier this year hoping to break that $30 price point again. And Pirate having to repay investors in BTC when he initially converted their funds into something more liquid...
Thanks, now I get it. I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!
Here's a Bull vs Bear visual to go with the explanation given by BrightAnarchist.
Nice picture.
Nice comparison.
The count for the bear case is rather unlikely since the time span for a wave 2 correction would be too long versus the wave 1 advance. It is not impossible but does not look likely.
Thanks guys!
@S3052, Agreed! It is very unlikely.
However, it should be noted that, if we were to have a deep correction, and drop below the wave-(1) ($7.22 high noted in the "bullish" representation), the current situation would be the topping of a wave-(B), and we would be looking at heading toward a new low. This is because, from an EW standpoint, once we passed the January high, and a wave-4 cannot overlap a wave-1 there is now nothing stopping us from seeing a new lower low.
(I know you know this, I'm just clarifying for the EW Newbs.)
+1 this is correct. BTCUSD should not move below 7.22 in the near future.
Never was much of a fan of old 'backfit' Elliott Wave. Seemed about as useful as the 'ZigZag' indicator a lot of charting programs use - they have a warning not to use it when programming trading strategies, as it is a backward-looking indicator
Anyway, I say stick with the trendlines that have been established and scale/stop-out if you get closes below it. Everyone has their favorite method, no doubt.
Anyway, I say stick with the trendlines that have been established and scale/stop-out if you get closes below it. Everyone has their favorite method, no doubt.
Interesting point. Is anyone attempting to track aggregate demand across all trading options, to the extent that that can be done?
Perhaps there are attempts being done by buyers to specifically hinder or impede this tracking of demand from happening through the use of non-disclosure agreements, use of physical cash, gold, silver, etc.
See now that's what i'm taking about!
I see the bullish chart as not only likely but necessary. The rise has giving new hope for 100$ bitcoins, but before that can happen new money has to come into the market, and for new money to come into the market opportunity must be presented. 7.22 will the opportunity of a life time.
I see the bullish chart as not only likely but necessary. The rise has giving new hope for 100$ bitcoins, but before that can happen new money has to come into the market, and for new money to come into the market opportunity must be presented. 7.22 will the opportunity of a life time.
So you bought back in, ay?
Awesome.
So from your prediction of $7.20 being 2012 high, I that to be get ready for a higher high. Cheers.
I think fundamentals trump technicals, so I don't see a major correction as long as worldwide economic conditions continue to give people reasons to find alternatives to the traditional monetary system and national currencies. But I can conceive of some extreme (unlikely) scenarios that might cause a giant correction:
Pirate blowing up, exchanges getting hacked, thefts, viruses/trojans, I don't think any of those things would cause a major drop at this point.
- Major flaw or vulnerability in algorithm(s) discovered. If truly unsolvable, I guess price could go to zero as the whole experiment is abandoned.
- Powerful entity (e.g. a government, the UN, etc) declares explicit war against Bitcoin or affiliated entities (SR, Gox, etc) using some flimsy excuse. Actions taken through regulatory/legal/cyber channels & arrests are made. Weak hands would assume the worst and sell, true believers would hold on. Price could fall drastically to some very low (but nonzero) amount.
- Early miners holding millions of BTC decide to sell all at once. Stupid, but not impossible, could drive price to low digits.
- Satoshi comes out of hiding and declares the whole thing to have been a giant joke.
Pirate blowing up, exchanges getting hacked, thefts, viruses/trojans, I don't think any of those things would cause a major drop at this point.
The count for the bear case is rather unlikely since the time span for a wave 2 correction would be too long versus the wave 1 advance. It is not impossible but does not look likely.
From what point are you counting the start of wave 1, the inception of bitcoin?
See now that's what i'm taking about!
I see the bullish chart as not only likely but necessary. The rise has giving new hope for 100$ bitcoins, but before that can happen new money has to come into the market, and for new money to come into the market opportunity must be presented. 7.22 will the opportunity of a life time.
I see the bullish chart as not only likely but necessary. The rise has giving new hope for 100$ bitcoins, but before that can happen new money has to come into the market, and for new money to come into the market opportunity must be presented. 7.22 will the opportunity of a life time.
Fascinating.
Once my loans mature (>75% of my btc), I plan to sell 50% of my btc in hopes of a plunge. If i'm wrong, I still have half my btc, and I'll just keep waiting for a plunge with my other [sold] half.
Once my loans mature (>75% of my btc), I plan to sell 50% of my btc in hopes of a plunge. If i'm wrong, I still have half my btc, and I'll just keep waiting for a plunge with my other [sold] half.
Awesome.
Thanks, now I get it. I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!
Here's a Bull vs Bear visual to go with the explanation given by BrightAnarchist.
Nice picture.
Nice comparison.
The count for the bear case is rather unlikely since the time span for a wave 2 correction would be too long versus the wave 1 advance. It is not impossible but does not look likely.
Thanks guys!
@S3052, Agreed! It is very unlikely.
However, it should be noted that, if we were to have a deep correction, and drop below the wave-(1) ($7.22 high noted in the "bullish" representation), the current situation would be the topping of a wave-(B), and we would be looking at heading toward a new low. This is because, from an EW standpoint, once we passed the January high, and a wave-4 cannot overlap a wave-1 there is now nothing stopping us from seeing a new lower low.
(I know you know this, I'm just clarifying for the EW Newbs.)
Thanks, now I get it. I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!
Here's a Bull vs Bear visual to go with the explanation given by BrightAnarchist.
Nice comparison.
The count for the bear case is rather unlikely since the time span for a wave 2 correction would be too long versus the wave 1 advance. It is not impossible but does not look likely.
Jump to: