Topic: A Theory on what pirateat40 is doing - page 8. (Read 40028 times)

they supported the market at 5$

they saw they had bought enough coins at 5$ so that if they hold them the market slowly rises

they Pump the price over 6$, and get huge wall after huge wall sold into

the market moves up, Huge ask walls are put in place to drive the price down again.

they Buy as much coins as they can at the lowest price they can push it down too

they are in it for the long term, and are playing smart

they won.

and you get someone with 500,000BTC on hand. and make a deal to have him help keep the price down with huge ask walls, as you buy slowly

it makes perfect sense, think about whats been happening on the market
some how the market was tricked into dumping 30,000coins at 6.55 ~200,000$

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.966751
the same huge buy small price bump has been happening for 2 months

the price actually dropped after that buy.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.970293  <- 1 day after the big 6.55 bid wall gets sold into

look at the quot for that picture

If I had the money I would do the same. I would buy slowly over time.

genius

I have a new theory!

Pirate is allowing ovr X million dollars of new money to enter the market below 10$ ( by keeping the price down as much as possible as he buys over 1 million coins )

once he's done his investors (wtv you wana cal them) will simply hold on to over 1million coins and watch the market naturally rise to over 50$ each!

A couple of things regarding the chart:
1. I still think it is more likely a Ponzi, I only made the chart to show how it could be done as a legitimate but still not legal investment scheme, because the issue was brought up. The two particular Bitcoin-based businesses that Pirate chose to implement very well could work hand-in-hand towards these ends, but it does not mean they *do* work to these ends.

2. I am not making the claim this is a couple million per week, I'm saying it could be a few million every couple of weeks. MtGox alone handled 11.5 million in the last 30 days. At least a handful of estimates stated BS&T handled ~300k coins. These are reasonable estimates based on other's estimates, I'm not manufacturing anything new with regards to the amount of money that could be cleaned via this manner.

3. The title of this thread contains the direction of the discussion, the chart is relevant towards such discussion. Giving pirate the right or wrong kind of attention is irrelevant to the chart.

4. Nearly everyone that has responded saying it is impossible he is doing this does not understand smurfing. Smurfing is exactly why no one ever asks any questions, and a compromise at this level is how a launder will eventually be "caught". Some recent smurfing methods don't even have the smurf know what they are doing, many of them think they are handling financial accounts for online "work-at-home" companies, you've no doubt seen these reports in the media. More info is here: http://money.howstuffworks.com/money-laundering2.htm

5. It doesn't have to be a huge cartel, but it could be, these guys have millions lying around accumulating, and they've tried real world laundering methods that do not work. They could easily try something Bitcoin-based and not be worse off, but yes, they would very much want more and more business, and it would explain why pirate was absolutely livid when people accused him of a Ponzi. Less interest in BS&T means less profit. But that said, it could just as easily be a Bitcoin hacker or hacking group laundering through him.

6. Many of the people complaining the most about MtGox->Dwolla delays seem to be miners, maybe some traders. Some mine at GPU Max, others do not. This is worth noting. The more recent the coin, the more scrutiny I would give to it being immediately sold on Mt Gox if I worked in law enforcement. I would especially be watching people who are withdrawing money from MtGox that have absolutely no technical or economic background at all if I thought this was an elaborate money-laundering scheme. And yes, a laundering scheme *has* to be at least somewhat elaborate, because if it isn't, it won't be profitable.

I just want to end on a final note where I again reiterate I don't necessarily think any money laundering is being done, but if I was asked to provide "clean" coin, this is exactly how I would have developed my system.

In a bull market yes. pirateat40 can be very much at risk. In a bear market no. In fact in a bear market his profits go up. One must keep in mind that a lot of his reputation was built with regular payments during a bear market or a least a market that was stable or rising very slowly.

a bank run on pirate's bank would defiantly break him ATM

he would need to convert his usd into bitcoin to satisfy everyone's bitcoin requests

and since the recent rise in bitcoin value, and the fact the he needs to buy more to could easily push us over 12-15$

and maybe he wouldn't be able to afford to buy back EVERYONE's bitcoin at this time

his only hope ATM is that everyone stick with him and hope he can once again use the huge funds to make profit and recover...

Change the $10 amount to X where X is much above the most recent price action. This will fix your doubts.

I very much doubt 10.12345 USD will break pirateat40. The rest can work. Taking delivery is one sure way to push a short to the wall.

lol, indeed appears as a valid "squeeeze the pirate" strategy. Withdraw all from pirate, list for sale at 10.12345$ (or better yet in cold storage for a decade).

Here is a helpful tip:

1. Withdraw your money and profits with him (if you have any with him) ASAP.

2. Don't sell below $10 in the short term.

It is a legitimate topic of discussion for the speculation board because if pirateat40 does get caught up in a short squeeze, he is a big enough player that it will have an impact on the price at least in the short term.

This this this this +1000

First lets do some math here:

BTC per block 50 BTC
Blocks per hour 6.17
Hours is a day 24
Days in a month 31 (I will be generous here)
BTC mined in a month total 50x6.17x24x31 = 229524 BTC

Now for the exchange rate. I will be generous and take say 1 BTC = 10 USD. We have not reached this recently but we could soon. This gives me 2295240 USD a month in the USD value of all the freshly mined  BTC. Now according to your flow chart the mined Bitcoin is the source of clean cash for our "major drug cartel"?

So my questions are:
1) A few million every couple of weeks in which currency?
2) What percentage of the BTC network hashrate does pirateat40 control in order to clean a "few million" of said currency every two weeks?

Seriously if one wants to make a money laundering theory behind what pirateat40 is doing it can be a plausible theory (It is not however my theory at this point); however it would have to be on behalf some very small player, not some major drug cartel. The numbers otherwise simply do not add up.

Great quote.

+21000000

The mere fact that there is so much discussion on what pirate is or isn't doing just shows me that he has gotten what he wanted....you guessing and speculating. Thus he can more likely predict the sentiment of the overall forum and make moves based on that.

Perhaps we should stop talking about him and focus on getting bitcoin noticed by more businesses and people...more mainstream.

This is what will make bitcoin successful, not whether or not Pirate is running a ponzi or not. Worse things have happened already and bitcoin is alive and well..

Why make the assumption in bold?  Couldn't he just as easily charge 20%.  He could justify it since bitcoin is so wildly volatile.  Also, who's to say the buyers aren't spending any of their coins?

The numbers don't add up.

If we assume Pirate has about 300k BTC in deposits now, then if we add up the BTC that Pirate would have sold to these "big players" over the last half year or so (remember, the entire amount of deposits get sold to these people *each week*), we would get about 5 million sold to these people.

That would be half of all available BTC. That doesn't seem credible if you look at the number of BTC addresses holding Bitcoins. Also a lot of the addresses haven't moved/have remained unchanged for longer than half a year.