I think we're past the point where anyone may profit from rational discussion. The moderated thread has degenerated to a tiny core of cultish cheerleaders -- beyond the reach of mundane logic. Repeating all the red flags for the Nth time is no more helpful for these True Believers than shouting "OMG, we're SINKING! Get off the boat!" during the last moments of the Titanic.
As they say, "that ship has sailed." And sunk.
Well this security is in an odd place, a limbo of sorts. We cannot say that the ship has sunk just yet as we are waiting on the eASIC prototypes and have been for a while now. However we are now due for a update from Ken about the first prototype chips. According to Ken's past posts the chips are now due and if we do not hear anything about the prototype by November 1st we are in trouble. You most certainly will be right to call the company a sinking ship.
Please understand that i'm not bunching you in with the goofballs rabidly cheering this shipwreck as the sea water starts filling their lungs. You have not been dishonest or willfully blind, AFAIK. You're one of the few who tried to discuss this as an investment instead of a hometown soccer team to be cheered, right or wrong.
That's why it's sort-a hard for me to reply to you in any meaningful way. I honestly don't want *you* to lose money, but i find it difficult to come up with a plausible scenario (excepting "greater fools") where you wouldn't. As i mentioned before, exiting a sizable position is impossible without mind-numbing slippage, and sure, there's always a chance that someone will try to game the market in a way you would be able to exploit. So i can't even say "dump at any price" -- i simply don't know all the Inspection-levels of rigging that would come into play here.
At this point I am so disheartened by the company and the seal of secrecy surrounding the product that I feel like selling out, but then I have to deal with selling at a loss and then losing a somewhat decent position if surprisingly good news is around the corner. I remind myself that I invested without doing enough research into the company, my research and number calculations come up with positive factors and I was also getting cocky with my investments [1] so I decided to take the plunge and take a position in ActiveMining and whilst the price kept decreasing I bought more and more expecting a return to previous highs.
My lesson from this is not to get cocky, if I read every single post that had been made about ActiveMining I may have made a different decision.
[1] - The month prior I was printing money from Just-Dice during a couple of weeks of incredible returns for the investor and from Labcoin.
I can say that the news from eAsic is not going to be incredibly relevant from the standpoint of intrinsic value. The EasyCopy chip we're talking about is no competition for the other 28nm players. At best it will be better than nothing, at worst it will begin a new cycle of failure.
From what I have read the chip is inferior to the other 28nm players, but I don't think its going to be that bad compared to the competition and if the production can begin as soon as possible taking a small percent of the network may be possible. Even if we maintain a couple of percent for a few weeks the faith in the company will be restored. That would be a good time to determine actual share value based on the hashrate at that point and anymore chips Ken can buy. Remember Ken being able to buy more chips at great speed is the main appeal of eASIC, once the first hurdles are over.
If the share price rises higher than my determined value I will make an exist and either buy lower when an inevitable correction occurs or stay out. Depending on the ability to continue adding more chips.
Sorry. Not sure what i'd do in your shoes. Honest.
Yeah my situation is pretty bad, this is a mistake that I'm paying for. Early November is insanely crucial and I hope Ken does not screw it up.
