Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread - page 94. (Read 479317 times)

On the contrary the chart can lie and I've shown you the mechanism by which it is doing so right now. What doesn't lie in this situation is volume data. In this scenario traded volume is a direct reflection of perceived value - unlike spot price.

this is what was refunded/in jeopardy:

"An order of Avalon chips from steamboat's batch #1, for 68 Klondike-16 boards, rated at 68*16*282 = 307 GH/s;
An order of 20,000 Avalon chips (end of May and beginging of June orders), for a combined hashrate of 20,000*282 = 5,640 GH/s."

you guys are seriously fretting about a share price drop over 6 TH/s? they have about 400 GH/s already mining still

They plan to *sell* 921.6 terahashes in the next 11 months. They plan to be using 992 TH in the next 24 months

and you guys are complaining about 2 weeks of continual perpetual mining using avalon hardware, and how the next few weeks or few months will have lower than expected dividends due to rising difficulty? are you guys really that OBSESSED with dividends

there are several other companies planning on deploying large amounts of hashing power, PLANNING, when historically NOBODY has delivered on time. Not one single company. When Cointerra or Petamine *actually* do something, then evaluate your position in Activemining, but Activemining is still in a position to become or sell a large portion of the network.

Speaking of which, there is also risk that Bitfunder might be closed down in the future to US investors.
Apparently, Ukyo has been trying to get with lawyers to get his exchange to be legal in the US. Unfortunately som of the requirements to make an exchange legal are great big hurdles and he has said that he has considered closing BF to new US investors and to closing BF from people in the US buying more shares of anything.

Obviously, demand fuels price, so without that demand, from the US, prices would go down. He says the US only represents 22% of activity on his exchange. Still, what does that mean? A 22% drop in all stock prices? He also said that what affects BF in terms of SEC regulation would affect the other exchanges.

The decision, of course is hold, sell, buy more. Chairforce is of course right. With great reward comes great risk. Too many people on here expect a guaranteed profit. We could wake up and find out that ActM has bone to .008, or that it has dropped to .001.

At this point, in terms of long term strategic planning, the current price of ActM is not relevant.  
At some point, there will be announcements vis a vis the legality of BF in the US, eAsic and whether ActM will have chips, whether ActM will be able to build finished mining machines and generate enough BTC to make profit, and whether ActM will be able to build machines to sell to make profit.

If BF stays open to US citizens, and there is a good announcement, and production of finished machines happens, and the website gets finished and orders come in, it will be time to celebrate.

On the other hand, BF could shut down to US citizens, eAsic could flake out, manufacuring could be slow and ActM could be slow to market.

Given all those factors, the choice is, hold and wait, sell now, and avoid further loss (if you bought into ActM at a high price), sell now (and be happy with whatever profit you have if you bought at IPO), buy more because you feel that this is a low price period and that the stars will align and that eAsic chips will come in and machines will be produced.

I am hoping that things will go well. I actually believe in Ken and the eAsic deal. My concerns are that BF will have to limit access to people who live in the US, and that causes me concern.

I suspect that the eAsic deal will be successful. No news is good news in this situation. For me, the critical factors are patience and hoping BF stays open.

On the other hand, if one or two whales (people owning large numbers of ActM shares) decide they can't wait, and decide to liquidate their ActM holdings, that would drop the price of ActM, but would not affect long term prices.

In a way, it would be good if the anxious and cautious would just dump their ActM. It would be self selection for those who share in the Koolaid. (true fact, they drank Flavor-Ade not Koolaid at Jones Town.)

My point being that until there is an announcement about chip supply, the price of the stock is irrelevant, except to those who support the long term vision of ActM.

On the other hand, these fluctuations are fun to watch.

I wish I understood options, because that would be fun too.

He owes it to his investors to keep spirits up and keep everyone updated. They did give him a free loan for what? 6+ million dollars? (I'm not really sure on the amount.)

But still, don't expect to get a free loan of millions of dollars and then them not be upset with a lack of updates... I understand the business keeps going no matter what happens here, but he is screwing over his share holders with his actions (or lack thereof in this matter.)

its interesting to watch the panic spreading through this thread and steadily accelerating.

-there is no way that anything anyone speculates on here will ever affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever
-there is no way that share price will affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever

if u are in active u r not driving, u are along for the ride. the share price can go to 0 and active will still go along with progress or regression because the money is already out of your hands. ken does not need any share holders in order to continue business. its like people are surprised that there is risk in securities for a digital currency, and don't understand there is no reward without risk. we cant all just be there for when things are bright and happy, its a two way street. if u want to wake up with a smile from doubling ur position then u better damn well be ready to wake up in shambles.

I think this was a joke... a funny one at that

"pred div rally" are you kidding ? THat dust wouldnt cover even transaction fees

if it looks like a dog and barks like a dog..

You're pretty far gone, man. The one thing in this thread that doesn't lie is the chart. No amount of formulas or wishful thinking will alter that. It is going down, and there are very obvious reasons why.

The lack of updates reminds me of BFL late 2012... and we all know how that ended.

I hope I am wrong (for the sake of my units, and for the sake of shareholders).

I think a lot of shareholders feel the same way.

come on, easics confirmed several times about a relationship between them and Ken and VMC covered by NDA, it's not likely a scam.
We just need to wait, but as I've already asked:
Ken, PR, is there an estimated date when the NDA should close? Are we talking about days? Weeks? Months?

Great. So nothing much to know here until after Labor Day. Meantime share price is bottoming out due to lack of formidable PR and Ken's inability to articulate more than a grunt here and there.

I too deal with NDAs and am very familiar with and understand how they work but at this point, with regards to how it affects the share price, it's becoming a huge liability.

There must be some kind of good news that has NOTHING to do with eASIC and the infamous NDA that can calm doubts?

Not a scam? ... Maybe.
but It's sure feels like we've been abandoned...

It's like Ken got what he wanted out of us and has walked away.

Everyone making a big issue over share price should understand that it is a handful of extremely minor sells effecting shares price - big sells are not happening.

There are very few buyers right now (as everyone is fully invested or waiting for news) therefore a small number of sellers when there is no buying pressure can move price a long way.

Look at the Bitfunder trade history for the past 24hrs
At 8am on 30th we have 124 shares selling for 0.0039
At 7am on 31st we have we have 640 shares selling for 0.0033622

That is an apparent drop in market value of the company of approx 15%. Significant.
Now how many shares have been sold on BF between those two sells? 15% of the 5Mill+ on the exchange? No, 3,500. Incedible but true.

So, 3,500 shares x3 (to add in estimated btc.co volume) is around 10k shares sold in those 24hrs.

10Mill/10k = 1000 (0.1% of publicly held shares)

That sort of turn over is perfectly normal, 0.1% atleast SHOULD be traded daily in any healthy stock. The problem here is solely due to the lack of buyers which is causing vastly exaggerated exchange prices moves.

In this atypical situation the critical factor to take account of in assesing invester confidence is volume of sales not price moves. The volume of sales figure tells you how many people are selling their shares (the price tells you nothing right now). So 0.1% of shares are selling = nothing of any significance, it is to be expected in any stock.

Therefore I would suggest that those saying invester confidence is low and citing stock price as evidence are wrong. No one is selling, everyone is holding tight right now. It looks like ACtM investers aren't as fickle or short-sighted as some would assume.

Comments on that welcome as usual.

That's the real question.


I'm already out @ the best of the worst price but I'm asking myself if I should come back or not and when.

This is starting to look like a train wreck in slow motion.

I'm not an investor, but I better receive my mining equipment I ordered from VMC... here's to hoping for the best.

I dunno how you ActM guys are still in this, you must have balls of steel.

How beneficial is this shroud of secrecy really for the 2 partners and how detrimental is it for the shareholders? What kind of information can they hide from their competition that they don't otherwise have? Or what information could they use anyways?

It isn't ken's choice but an eASIC requirement. If/when eASIC issue a press release, the NDA situ will change. Else ken needs to negotiate certain items can be made public.

Nothing is going to happen for the next few days due to holidays, however.

If they don't remove the NDA, this is going down and down. Maybe they should reconsider it with their partner(s). No NDA = more trust = share price up to 0.005+

EDIT: and btw, WHY NDA here ? I don't get it.