Topic: Analysis - page 149. (Read 941582 times)

RyN, I think you talk about this count that you posted: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11887151

In the scenario where Eivind's 1 would be an A, then where would be the end of your B? At 318$? Or would we still be in that B now?

Wave 2 has no invalidation except a move below the beginning of wave 1. In this case, that would be a price of $.05 from the Gox chart in 2010. Since this is extremely unlikely, it is all a waiting game.

For the record, I agree 90% in your analysis. The other 10% is only that I don't think your 1 was a 1. I do have a count where that same leading diagonal is drawn but is a wave A. Even if that means it was A of an even larger A that we are waiting to complete. Or the other possibility that we are in a triple zigzag. Either way, I have had the belief that we will see LL's (with double digits likely) before we see ATH's for many months now. I can only show my PoV so many times before it becomes boarder line spam. Everyone here knows my stance on this.

I will try to see how low it can possibly go without invalidating the entire wavecount. But maybe A and C would be a double bottom or very close. I dont think there is so much room downward under 70 before it would invalidate. I have to sleep now but i can try tomorrow to make a guesstimate on tima and amplitude of C.

I will try to see how low it can possibly go without invalidating the entire wavecount. But maybe A and C would be a double bottom or very close. I dont think there is so much room downward under 70 before it would invalidate. I have to sleep now but i can try tomorrow to make a guesstimate on tima and amplitude of C.

If your analysis turns out right (which I give a slightly higher probability than masterlucs scenario) and 'A' reaches $110 to $65 where do you see 'C'? ~$20 to $10?

If your analysis turns out right (which I give a slightly higher probability than masterlucs scenario) and 'A' reaches $110 to $65 where do you see 'C'? ~$20 to $10?

You better believe it. The fear, anger, frustration, resignation, capitulation associated with a C was never present in the 150 low. The entire affair passed without triggering nothing more than a 'meh'. The mood for wave A is described as:

Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves (no kidding!). In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market.

I think that is a very fitting description of current sentiment and sentiment all the way from 1163

This would bring us the "despair" I've heard so much about.

I think the assumption that the 152 bottom was C is flawed.

The 152 bottom was wave 3. The correction up to 317 was corrective up to wave 4. The correction was not a standard Zigzag because wave 2 was a Zigzag, rule of alternation. So from 152 to 317 it was a Flat correction. 3-3-5 pattern. The 309 top was A, 210 bottom was B and from 210 to 317 was C. The pudding here is that the rise from 210 to 317 was an impulse, that is how a Flat 3-3-5 pattern looks like. It fooled everyone into believing that the bull market had resumed. Sprinkle with breaking the downward trend line from 1163 and hopium was blinding everyone.

After the 4 top was reached the price immediately resumed falling. We are on wave 2 of 5 down to A!

Minor Wave 1 brought us through the trendline of the 4 correction. Minor wave 2 retested the trendine from below and was rejected. It has since fallen minuette wave 1 and 2 is soon finished correcting upwards.

If this is correct we are extremely close to starting wave 3 of wave 3 down towards 5 and A.

Just look at the pattern from my proposed 4. Everything going down from 4 to Minor 1 = impulse waves, everything going up = corrective.

The bear market is in full swing.

Price targets for 5/A are less than 152, more than 65.

Ive made an image that explains my view in more detail:
https://i.imgur.com/RkzXcY1.jpg

Thank you for this awesome anaylsis, respect !

Could you elaborate more about this please,


Could this be the Historical wave III luc was talking about ?

I think the assumption that the 152 bottom was C is flawed.

The 152 bottom was wave 3. The correction up to 317 was corrective up to wave 4. The correction was not a standard Zigzag because wave 2 was a Zigzag, rule of alternation. So from 152 to 317 it was a Flat correction. 3-3-5 pattern. The 309 top was A, 210 bottom was B and from 210 to 317 was C. The pudding here is that the rise from 210 to 317 was an impulse, that is how a Flat 3-3-5 pattern looks like. It fooled everyone into believing that the bull market had resumed. Sprinkle with breaking the downward trend line from 1163 and hopium was blinding everyone.

After the 4 top was reached the price immediately resumed falling. We are on wave 2 of 5 down to A!

Minor Wave 1 brought us through the trendline of the 4 correction. Minor wave 2 retested the trendine from below and was rejected. It has since fallen minuette wave 1 and 2 is soon finished correcting upwards.

If this is correct we are extremely close to starting wave 3 of wave 3 down towards 5 and A.

Just look at the pattern from my proposed 4. Everything going down from 4 to Minor 1 = impulse waves, everything going up = corrective.

The bear market is in full swing.

Price targets for 5/A are less than 152, more than 65.

Ive made an image that explains my view in more detail:
*clipped*