Analysis - page 147. | Bitcointalksearch.org

8up

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Quote from: klee on September 23, 2015, 07:21:31 AM

Quote from: 8up on September 23, 2015, 07:02:06 AM

I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!

325, 450

Scary stuff.

205-210 must NOT break...

You're right. Could easily go as high as $450. But in any case. The "defense line" must not break. Otherwise... Hell yeah. At least no one will demand a block size solution by then. Grin

Afrikoin

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Quote from: klee on September 23, 2015, 07:21:31 AM

Quote from: 8up on September 23, 2015, 07:02:06 AM

I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!

325, 450

Scary stuff.

205-210 must NOT break...

klee

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: 8up on September 23, 2015, 07:02:06 AM

I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!

325, 450

Scary stuff.

205-210 must NOT break...

8up

hero member

Activity: 618

Merit: 500

I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!

klee

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Quote from: molecular on September 23, 2015, 12:39:57 AM

Quote from: klee on September 21, 2015, 03:52:24 AM

Not sure if I did everything ok (I used a simple 200MA, 1w chart) but seems to me case is closed:

Not sure what you mean. That the 200 WMA is broken to the downside for good?

Anyhow: I think something's wrong with that 200 week moving average you are showing. I think it's wrong (it's too damn high). Maybe not enough data or something.

looks like this on bitcoinwisdom:

and like this on bitcoincharts:

(both bitstamp weekly)

on bitcoinwisdom I'm reading $235.54 for the 200 WMA.

bitcoinwisdom is doing it right, btw: not displaying the line at all if there's less than 200 samples in the past.

Yes, that's why I said I don't know if I did anything right - this chart has the line very high IMO too.

Anyways, I think we will go parabola soon if we hold 230...

molecular

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Quote from: klee on September 21, 2015, 03:52:24 AM

Not sure if I did everything ok (I used a simple 200MA, 1w chart) but seems to me case is closed:

Not sure what you mean. That the 200 WMA is broken to the downside for good?

Anyhow: I think something's wrong with that 200 week moving average you are showing. I think it's wrong (it's too damn high). Maybe not enough data or something.

looks like this on bitcoinwisdom:

and like this on bitcoincharts:

(both bitstamp weekly)

on bitcoinwisdom I'm reading $235.54 for the 200 WMA.

~~bitcoinwisdom~~ bitcoincharts is doing it right, btw: not displaying the line at all if there's less than 200 samples in the past.

EDIT: correction

janos666

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Quote from: smoothie on September 22, 2015, 04:49:46 PM

Quote from: masterluc on September 22, 2015, 03:49:43 PM

Just to remind about myself Grin

IMO, nothing changed, I think price will continue to swing inside this channel.

Quote from: podyx on September 22, 2015, 07:27:33 AM

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

we will see. Looks like it is falling off the edge ever so slowly...but what do I know...

Not necessarily. As I see this year, it's very close to the mean right now and it could easily stay still here for several days or weeks.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: Afrikoin on September 22, 2015, 06:16:52 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 22, 2015, 05:02:06 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on September 22, 2015, 04:58:50 PM

I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

I trade Oil or SPX or Silver, or TSLA once or twice. There are thousands of stocks/bonds/indices/commodities out there when Bitcoin is boring. Wink

Do you have thread for these other commodities?

I do not... Often I'll spot a setup just in time and reporting it in a thread may only induce losses for some since they might see it only after the expected move materializes. I don't even know where I would post something like that without starting a blog Huh

Afrikoin

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alan watts is all you need

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 22, 2015, 05:02:06 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on September 22, 2015, 04:58:50 PM

I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

I trade Oil or SPX or Silver, or TSLA once or twice. There are thousands of stocks/bonds/indices/commodities out there when Bitcoin is boring. Wink

Do you have thread for these other commodities?

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Ivanhoe on September 22, 2015, 04:58:50 PM

I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

I trade Oil or SPX or Silver, or TSLA once or twice. There are thousands of stocks/bonds/indices/commodities out there when Bitcoin is boring. Wink

Ivanhoe

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I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: masterluc on September 22, 2015, 03:49:43 PM

Just to remind about myself Grin

IMO, nothing changed, I think price will continue to swing inside this channel.

Quote from: podyx on September 22, 2015, 07:27:33 AM

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

we will see. Looks like it is falling off the edge ever so slowly...but what do I know...

masterluc

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Just to remind about myself Grin

IMO, nothing changed, I think price will continue to swing inside this channel.

Quote from: podyx on September 22, 2015, 07:27:33 AM

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

klee

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Quote from: Fatman3001 on September 22, 2015, 08:22:29 AM

Quote from: klee on September 22, 2015, 07:48:12 AM

Quote from: 8up on September 22, 2015, 07:41:01 AM

Quote from: podyx on September 22, 2015, 07:27:33 AM

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

I agree up to the 350$ part. Then I don't have an opinion.

Give me $380+ and I'll start posting moon gifs and mean it.

Anti-gravity phenomena will start appearing at these prices..

Fatman3001

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Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC

Quote from: klee on September 22, 2015, 07:48:12 AM

Quote from: 8up on September 22, 2015, 07:41:01 AM

Quote from: podyx on September 22, 2015, 07:27:33 AM

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

I agree up to the 350$ part. Then I don't have an opinion.

Give me $380+ and I'll start posting moon gifs and mean it.

klee

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Quote from: 8up on September 22, 2015, 07:41:01 AM

Quote from: podyx on September 22, 2015, 07:27:33 AM

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

I agree up to the 350$ part. Then I don't have an opinion.

8up

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Quote from: podyx on September 22, 2015, 07:27:33 AM

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

podyx

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What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

Afrikoin

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alan watts is all you need

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 21, 2015, 04:45:51 PM

Quote from: Eivind Nag on September 21, 2015, 04:13:28 PM

Since my last count was the ultra bearish one i have tried to create a valid bull count too.

At first sight it looks difficult to create a bullish count from the current situation but there is actually a very compelling case.

I think it is more or less certain that we are going to have a revisit to around 190 no matter what happens, bull or bear. What happens when it hits the 195-190 level is on the other hand very uncertain.

In my bear count the price should traverse 190 almost like air and fall further, maybe towards 140-160 before correcting, maybe even further. In my bull count it should bounce on the trendline from the expanding triangle like it was a million degrees hot and explode into an extremely violent 5th wave. Impulses should be easy to count in this case.

Bull case:

We are nearing a junction if i ever saw one. The main uncertainty as i see it is if 152 was A, 3 or C.

That count is in no way valid as labeled!
At best, an expanding triangle as such would be B of (B) to $152's (A). Even as a diagonal (the only way that 1 and 4 can overlap), the 4 is vastly too long for the count. I definitely wouldn't classify that as "Compelling". Maybe "Hopeful" or "With a little bit of luck".

+1

hat 4 LOOKS a mighty stretch.

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Eivind Nag on September 21, 2015, 04:13:28 PM

Since my last count was the ultra bearish one i have tried to create a valid bull count too.

At first sight it looks difficult to create a bullish count from the current situation but there is actually a very compelling case.

I think it is more or less certain that we are going to have a revisit to around 190 no matter what happens, bull or bear. What happens when it hits the 195-190 level is on the other hand very uncertain.

In my bear count the price should traverse 190 almost like air and fall further, maybe towards 140-160 before correcting, maybe even further. In my bull count it should bounce on the trendline from the expanding triangle like it was a million degrees hot and explode into an extremely violent 5th wave. Impulses should be easy to count in this case.

Bull case:

We are nearing a junction if i ever saw one. The main uncertainty as i see it is if 152 was A, 3 or C.

That count is in no way valid as labeled!
At best, an expanding triangle as such would be B of (B) to $152's (A). Even as a diagonal (the only way that 1 and 4 can overlap), the 4 is vastly too long for the count. I definitely wouldn't classify that as "Compelling". Maybe "Hopeful" or "With a little bit of luck".

Edit:
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin looks bleak. The Divergences are bad now, and with a HH, there will either be regular Bearish divs or worsening hidden Bearish divs. Chance for the big rally has passed. Now we wait for our bottom and a long slow grind back up before we have our next chance at an epic Bull market. "Sell in May and go away!" Buy back next May!

Topic: Analysis - page 147. (Read 941567 times)