Analysis - page 158. | Bitcointalksearch.org

thefiniteidea

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"In Us We Trust"

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 07:47:44 PM

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

No, Bitcoin is backed by a belief that alternative currencies are healthy.

Greed came in later.

The important thing is stating Bitcoin is not about making money, it's about having a choice. That comes first. Making money off that fact is secondary.

Fakhoury

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Permabull Bitcoin Investor

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

Fatman3001

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Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 06:44:27 PM

Ok, i fully agree with you RyinDiclem and madjules007. I fully agree with this in theory.

Trouble is, i have trouble reconciling this in reality. I find it hard to picture a complete turnaround in sentiment on forums. Say price dips to unprecedented levels, the reality should be 75% switch to full on Bitcoin is dead. I find this hard to reconcile since, I find bitcoiner's to be extremely resilient in their hopes for BTC.In my mind (long term bull btw), i imagine everyone will see these ridiculous levels as the perfect buying opportunity.

I never experienced this before. Perhaps some of you did, since the early days of Bitcoin. I hope i live to see that state of sentiment and forums and reddit bitcoin markets comments to really believe that its possible for most of the people i see on discussions on bitcointalk turn around and doubt bitcoin can even head back to measly $500.

Like Fakhoury, i missed the first wave of prices, and i'm all for fresh lows. I'm even pulling together a group of my friends to buy in as a fund once we hit bottom. For them, $100 is a reasonable risk.

I too have been thinking about this. Quite a few will bail if we go and stay below $150. Like we saw when we crept below $340. But most will buy more, and if we go below $80... people will go mental(which is why we won't get there).

I've kept an eye on Bitcoins 'Bier und Blasen' Tavern, the WO thread, for almost a year now, and everytime we go below $230 people start sending money to exchanges.

The fact that Bitcoin itself can't go bust is comforting. Whenever people fear exchanges will go belly up, they withdraw in Bitcoin. Clearly, people trust Bitcoin in a way they might not trust other investments. So unless devs break Bitcoin I don't really believe we will reach the point where sentiment is where rynindaclem says it needs to be.

Fakhoury

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Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 07:20:32 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 06:44:27 PM

Trouble is, i have trouble reconciling this in reality. I find it hard to picture a complete turnaround in sentiment on forums. Say price dips to unprecedented levels, the reality should be 75% switch to full on Bitcoin is dead. I find this hard to reconcile since, I find bitcoiner's to be extremely resilient in their hopes for BTC.In my mind (long term bull btw), i imagine everyone will see these ridiculous levels as the perfect buying opportunity.

I never experienced this before. Perhaps some of you did, since the early days of Bitcoin. I hope i live to see that state of sentiment and forums and reddit bitcoin markets comments to really believe that its possible for most of the people i see on discussions on bitcointalk turn around and doubt bitcoin can even head back to measly $500.

Well, I mostly only lurked the forums in 2014, but certainly I have watched sentiment make a drastic transformation from the end of 2013 to now. There has been a big turnaround in sentiment, but it has not gone 180 degrees by any means. Bitcoiners are resilient, but surely this bear market has beaten us down. Moon calls are still with us -- but they are fewer and further between. If we could only get the "bitcoin is dead if it hits double digits" crowd to sell the bottom, we may have our bottom. Tongue

It's very, very easy to say that a crash is the perfect buying opportunity. But most will be too terrified to buy. That's markets for ya. Cheesy

I'm a fan here too but you didn't respond to me yet Embarrassed

Afrikoin

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alan watts is all you need

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 07:20:32 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 06:44:27 PM

Trouble is, i have trouble reconciling this in reality. I find it hard to picture a complete turnaround in sentiment on forums. Say price dips to unprecedented levels, the reality should be 75% switch to full on Bitcoin is dead. I find this hard to reconcile since, I find bitcoiner's to be extremely resilient in their hopes for BTC.In my mind (long term bull btw), i imagine everyone will see these ridiculous levels as the perfect buying opportunity.

I never experienced this before. Perhaps some of you did, since the early days of Bitcoin. I hope i live to see that state of sentiment and forums and reddit bitcoin markets comments to really believe that its possible for most of the people i see on discussions on bitcointalk turn around and doubt bitcoin can even head back to measly $500.

Well, I mostly only lurked the forums in 2014, but certainly I have watched sentiment make a drastic transformation from the end of 2013 to now. There has been a big turnaround in sentiment, but it has not gone 180 degrees by any means. Bitcoiners are resilient, but surely this bear market has beaten us down. Moon calls are still with us -- but they are fewer and further between. If we could only get the "bitcoin is dead if it hits double digits" crowd to sell the bottom, we may have our bottom. Tongue

It's very, very easy to say that a crash is the perfect buying opportunity. But most will be too terrified to buy. That's markets for ya. Cheesy

You just got yourself a new fan! #ff? Really. Thanks for your thoughts!

madjules007

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Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 06:44:27 PM

Trouble is, i have trouble reconciling this in reality. I find it hard to picture a complete turnaround in sentiment on forums. Say price dips to unprecedented levels, the reality should be 75% switch to full on Bitcoin is dead. I find this hard to reconcile since, I find bitcoiner's to be extremely resilient in their hopes for BTC.In my mind (long term bull btw), i imagine everyone will see these ridiculous levels as the perfect buying opportunity.

I never experienced this before. Perhaps some of you did, since the early days of Bitcoin. I hope i live to see that state of sentiment and forums and reddit bitcoin markets comments to really believe that its possible for most of the people i see on discussions on bitcointalk turn around and doubt bitcoin can even head back to measly $500.

Well, I mostly only lurked the forums in 2014, but certainly I have watched sentiment make a drastic transformation from the end of 2013 to now. There has been a big turnaround in sentiment, but it has not gone 180 degrees by any means. Bitcoiners are resilient, but surely this bear market has beaten us down. Moon calls are still with us -- but they are fewer and further between. If we could only get the "bitcoin is dead if it hits double digits" crowd to sell the bottom, we may have our bottom. Tongue

It's very, very easy to say that a crash is the perfect buying opportunity. But most will be too terrified to buy. That's markets for ya. Cheesy

Afrikoin

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Activity: 1540

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alan watts is all you need

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on August 26, 2015, 05:28:17 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:13:25 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 04:54:06 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

+1
Everything except bulls says that double digits is possible. The fact that sentiment snaps back out of a bearish tone overnight if a large market buy goes over the ticker is a big reason... Sentiment hasn't been battered quite enough yet. There is no reason to see a doubling of price for a wave-1 (in 12 days) after an 18 month bear market. The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

After a break of $152 (or whatever your exchange of choice' January low was) we have triangle support in the 115 area, then $50 (the first dump in April 2013) then it's at $32. There is nothing but horizontal supports remaining after that.

Ok, i fully agree with you RyinDiclem and madjules007. I fully agree with this in theory.

Trouble is, i have trouble reconciling this in reality. I find it hard to picture a complete turnaround in sentiment on forums. Say price dips to unprecedented levels, the reality should be 75% switch to full on Bitcoin is dead. I find this hard to reconcile since, I find bitcoiner's to be extremely resilient in their hopes for BTC.In my mind (long term bull btw), i imagine everyone will see these ridiculous levels as the perfect buying opportunity.

I never experienced this before. Perhaps some of you did, since the early days of Bitcoin. I hope i live to see that state of sentiment and forums and reddit bitcoin markets comments to really believe that its possible for most of the people i see on discussions on bitcointalk turn around and doubt bitcoin can even head back to measly $500.

Like Fakhoury, i missed the first wave of prices, and i'm all for fresh lows. I'm even pulling together a group of my friends to buy in as a fund once we hit bottom. For them, $100 is a reasonable risk.

BitofaN1

full member

Activity: 177

Merit: 100

When price dipped just below 200 two days ago,why didn't anyone push it even lower?
There were like 4k (1.5k on levarage) coins down to 150 or below @ Bitfinex.Very, very little resistance.In fact, many bulls already capitulated before that night.
Tens of thousands of coins were sold into bids all the way down from 300 and you're telling me 1.5k coins (on levarage) were just beyond the reach of every bearwhale out there? You've got to be shitting me!
You're probably realizing where I'm going with this. We didn't go much lower than 200, and probably never will, because market manipulators won't allow it.Right now they squeezed a crap load of longs, they will probably keep this current price range with occasional dips even below 200, then guess what? They'll do the opposite and squeeze the shorts.
Nothing new under the sun...
We need many more high rollers in this game so that gross manipulation of the market, the kind we see today, will become high risk - low reward, just like an attempt to gain control of the bitcoin network.

madjules007

sr. member

Activity: 400

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on August 26, 2015, 05:28:17 PM

The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

Yes, I find that, in hindsight, Wave 1 is where I (and everyone else) don't expect the bottom is in. Usually my aim is to recognize when we have seen the impulse, then prepare to buy the first pullback. Actually buying during Wave 1 can be very dangerous, as that would be buying before we have actually seen an impulse. Then it could easily just be a dead cat bounce.

Fakhoury

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Permabull Bitcoin Investor

Quote from: ssmc2 on August 26, 2015, 05:49:23 PM

What he's trying to tell you Fakhoury is that if you see double digits, consider it the buy of a lifetime. I know I will.

For the first time since being deeply involved in bitcoin scene, I felt sad that I missed the buy oppertunity of the lowest lows of $200.

Double/Single digits are my ultimate dream ever my friend, and yes, it's a lifetime buy.

I will never let this event pass out of my hands, don't worry Wink

Fakhoury

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Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:47:04 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 05:30:11 PM

When we can say that we are safe from double digits ?

Is double digits that dangerous for Bitcoin, or it would be temporary before we head up again ?

IMO, we could only say long after the bottom is in, once we have a clear reversal. On the 1D-3D timeframe, an impulsive move off those lows (say, in the low $100s) would at least indicate that we can expect another impulse to follow. It wouldn't mean double digits are gone forever, but it would at least indicate they we are in a new bullish cycle on that time frame. (It could of course be a bullish correction in a larger bearish trend as well)

No danger in double digits. Or single digits for that matter. Those that thing "bitcoin is dead" if we see double digits are just people who will be shaken out. Current price =/= existential failure of the protocol, nor down trending adoption. The latter two are what matter to me in determining bitcoin's long term future. I am a long term bull, to be clear.

So we share the same ideaology, perfect.

How can we determine the bottom, as I knew, it's just a matter of specualtion no more, unless I missed something.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on August 26, 2015, 05:28:17 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:13:25 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 04:54:06 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

+1
Everything except bulls says that double digits is possible. The fact that sentiment snaps back out of a bearish tone overnight if a large market buy goes over the ticker is a big reason... Sentiment hasn't been battered quite enough yet. There is no reason to see a doubling of price for a wave-1 (in 12 days) after an 18 month bear market. The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

After a break of $152 (or whatever your exchange of choice' January low was) we have triangle support in the 115 area, then $50 (the first dump in April 2013) then it's at $32. There is nothing but horizontal supports remaining after that.

This is probably true.

ssmc2

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What he's trying to tell you Fakhoury is that if you see double digits, consider it the buy of a lifetime. I know I will.

madjules007

sr. member

Activity: 400

Merit: 250

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 05:30:11 PM

When we can say that we are safe from double digits ?

Is double digits that dangerous for Bitcoin, or it would be temporary before we head up again ?

IMO, we could only say long after the bottom is in, once we have a clear reversal. On the 1D-3D timeframe, an impulsive move off those lows (say, in the low $100s) would at least indicate that we can expect another impulse to follow. It wouldn't mean double digits are gone forever, but it would at least indicate they we are in a new bullish cycle on that time frame. (It could of course be a bullish correction in a larger bearish trend as well)

No danger in double digits. Or single digits for that matter. Those that thing "bitcoin is dead" if we see double digits are just people who will be shaken out. Current price =/= existential failure of the protocol, nor down trending adoption. The latter two are what matter to me in determining bitcoin's long term future. I am a long term bull, to be clear.

Fakhoury

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1027

Permabull Bitcoin Investor

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:24:17 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 05:16:13 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:13:25 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 04:54:06 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

Thanks for elaboration, statistical talking, what is the % to hit ow $100's and double digits ?

It's really impossible to speculate on that. That's what I'm getting at by liquidity vacuum -- surely, there is much more demand for bitcoin in the $100s than is presently sitting on exchanges currently. However, that is irrelevant. In the case of a margin cascade below $160, thin books are thin books. By looking at swaps, we can only guess where margin calls are concentrated, since we only see the net outstanding swaps. So trying to speculate where that sell pressure would stop is really difficult.

But if I am looking at a retest of $150-160, and I know that fully margined positions from $230 will be liquidated by $160..... then I know that once we get to those levels, there could be great fuel for a selloff.

When we can say that we are safe from double digits ?

Is double digits that dangerous for Bitcoin, or it would be temporary before we head up again ?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:13:25 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 04:54:06 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

+1
Everything except bulls says that double digits is possible. The fact that sentiment snaps back out of a bearish tone overnight if a large market buy goes over the ticker is a big reason... Sentiment hasn't been battered quite enough yet. There is no reason to see a doubling of price for a wave-1 (in 12 days) after an 18 month bear market. The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

After a break of $152 (or whatever your exchange of choice' January low was) we have triangle support in the 115 area, then $50 (the first dump in April 2013) then it's at $32. There is nothing but horizontal supports remaining after that.

madjules007

sr. member

Activity: 400

Merit: 250

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 05:16:13 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:13:25 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 04:54:06 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

Thanks for elaboration, statistical talking, what is the % to hit ow $100's and double digits ?

It's really impossible to speculate on that. That's what I'm getting at by liquidity vacuum -- surely, there is much more demand for bitcoin in the $100s than is presently sitting on exchanges currently. However, that is irrelevant. In the case of a margin cascade below $160, thin books are thin books. By looking at swaps, we can only guess where margin calls are concentrated, since we only see the net outstanding swaps. So trying to speculate where that sell pressure would stop is really difficult.

But if I am looking at a retest of $150-160, and I know that fully margined positions from $230 will be liquidated by $160..... then I know that once we get to those levels, there could be great fuel for a selloff.

Fakhoury

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1027

Permabull Bitcoin Investor

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 05:13:25 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 04:54:06 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

Thanks for elaboration, statistical talking, what is the % to hit ow $100's and double digits ?

madjules007

sr. member

Activity: 400

Merit: 250

Quote from: Fakhoury on August 26, 2015, 04:54:06 PM

Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Like I said, one reason is sentiment. But surely TA supports this possibility. By all appearances, the $150-320 move over the past 7 months or so is a clear 3-swing correction. So if we put that into the context of the larger downtrend since $1100s, my guess is that we are in a bearish Z wave. If we are in a triple zig zag, then at a minimum I would look for a retest of the $150 level. The trouble there is that there has been so little price history in the $100s; below the high volume accumulation levels in the $200s, there is a liquidity vacuum. So even if the target were $150, liquidity and margin cascade could easily push us to low $100s or double digits.

Fakhoury

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Quote from: madjules007 on August 26, 2015, 03:38:01 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 01:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 01:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Topic: Analysis - page 158. (Read 941567 times)