Analysis - page 159. | Bitcointalksearch.org

madjules007

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Quote from: Afrikoin on August 26, 2015, 12:55:39 PM

Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 12:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Yes, I'd agree that many are continually trying to call "the bottom" of the long term down trend, and that this might continue to blow up in their faces. And I think that double digits are still "off the table" for most. As a big believer in max pain, my take on sentiment is that low $100s or double digits are very much on the table still.

Afrikoin

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Quote from: moneymanagment on August 26, 2015, 12:12:38 PM

Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

moneymanagment

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Does anyone else feel like bitcoin may finally reached a bottom (for the year) theses past few months

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Miz4r on August 26, 2015, 10:01:18 AM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 26, 2015, 09:12:57 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 26, 2015, 07:47:34 AM

Quote from: 8up on August 26, 2015, 02:24:04 AM

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

I do believe the market will react to the halving but it will not be at a time most people will expect it to happen. If most people expect something to happen at a certain time then the market will find a way to fool these people, otherwise most people would make easy money which is not how markets play out. LTC reacted strongly a couple months before their halving, at a time when most people expected something to happen much closer to the actual halving. Now maybe many people will expect BTC to also react a couple months before its halving just like LTC did, but BTC is unlikely to copy LTC here imo. I think we'll see the market price the halving in somewhere after the blocksize fork and before the halving. If the fork happens in January 2016 and the halving in July 2016 then maybe February 2016 we could expect to see a sudden big rally out of nowhere. But it could also happen much later maybe in June or July just to screw with people's minds and create doubt to make the weaker hands sell first.

I agree that the market likes to switch it up so it's not just easy for everyone to win. LTC is a perfect example. Halving occurred yesterday and LTC did nothing. Much of the pump 2 months ago was a ponzi playing the strings of those who expected a rally but were waiting to see conviction first. It was a perfectly timed and executed P&D and likely wore the market out well before the halving event actually went into effect, which is why we see a decline going into halving. Anything can happen with BTC and it may or may not face a similar situation come July.

On the other hand, BTC may have priced in two (or more) halvings with the bubble to 1200. There is no telling at this time, but if BTC were to have the same thing happen as LTC, then we can understand why you can't just assume that a halving should automatically double everyone's investment. Wouldn't that be too easy?

Miz4r

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Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 26, 2015, 09:12:57 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 26, 2015, 07:47:34 AM

Quote from: 8up on August 26, 2015, 02:24:04 AM

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

I do believe the market will react to the halving but it will not be at a time most people will expect it to happen. If most people expect something to happen at a certain time then the market will find a way to fool these people, otherwise most people would make easy money which is not how markets play out. LTC reacted strongly a couple months before their halving, at a time when most people expected something to happen much closer to the actual halving. Now maybe many people will expect BTC to also react a couple months before its halving just like LTC did, but BTC is unlikely to copy LTC here imo. I think we'll see the market price the halving in somewhere after the blocksize fork and before the halving. If the fork happens in January 2016 and the halving in July 2016 then maybe February 2016 we could expect to see a sudden big rally out of nowhere. But it could also happen much later maybe in June or July just to screw with people's minds and create doubt to make the weaker hands sell first.

molecular

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Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 26, 2015, 09:12:57 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 26, 2015, 07:47:34 AM

Quote from: 8up on August 26, 2015, 02:24:04 AM

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

yes, noone cared on halving day or plus/minus some weeks, but:

price also bubbled from 13 to 266 a few months after the halving.

imo there will be both:

reaction before (people thinking ahead, market "pricing in") and
reaction afterwards (real effect of supply halving takes hold)

Quote from: molecular on July 31, 2015, 06:47:10 AM

imo the market does try to price in the halving effect but strongly underestimates it (even after having seen what happened last time).

If we look at depicted envelope of roughly 1 year around the halving, we can see the price went from ~$5 to ~$120. Will that repeat in that way? Probably not exactly, but I think it's likely we'll see a 10-bagger or more (seen from roughly $300 level). In that sense I contradict the 1-2 year sideways prediction (unless we include whole 2015 as "sideways in 200-300 range"), I think the "quiet period" will be shorter, maybe until spring '16.

(side-note: in the end everything is halving-induced because without halving we'd have unlimited supply and probably 0 value.)

Afrikoin

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alan watts is all you need

Quote from: madjules007 on August 25, 2015, 06:41:16 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on August 25, 2015, 05:19:30 PM

Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW.

You missed the point. An impulse (Historical I) can be either a I or an A. There is nothing prima facie that determines that it was a I. So there is no evidence yet to determine whether we saw a Wave II or a Wave B. We won't be able to tell until we see an obvious Wave III.

Yes, it's possible that it was a II, but in terms of validity, there is nothing to indicate whether the grand structure is an impulse or a corrective.

Ah! ok, got it. Thanks

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: masterluc on August 26, 2015, 07:47:34 AM

Quote from: 8up on August 26, 2015, 02:24:04 AM

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

davidorentol

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great return above 200 weekly sma and log downtrend line .....wow

masterluc

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Besides trend break down failed. Bear trap as promised. Go sideways 200-300

masterluc

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Quote from: 8up on August 26, 2015, 02:24:04 AM

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Wary

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Who's there?

Quote from: 8up on August 26, 2015, 02:24:04 AM

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

I know. I discussed it here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11015638

8up

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Quote from: Wary on August 25, 2015, 09:33:18 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 07:04:17 PM

Quote from: Wary on August 25, 2015, 05:53:53 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 08:12:31 AM

If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel.

Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm.

I agree with it, but I was talking not of what we want, but what will happen. If influx of dollars into bitcoin system is the same and reward is halved, the price will double. The sideways channel is 200-300, therefore the doubled price will be around 400-600. I don't know if this will trigger a rally, but in any case it would be way above of the current sideways channel.

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

BldSwtTrs

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It's not because the supply will divided by two that the price will double, even if demand is constant.

molecular

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Quote from: Wary on August 25, 2015, 09:33:18 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 07:04:17 PM

Quote from: Wary on August 25, 2015, 05:53:53 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 08:12:31 AM

If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel.

Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm.

I agree with it, but I was talking not of what we want, but what will happen. If influx of dollars into bitcoin system is the same and reward is halved, the price will double. The sideways channel is 200-300, therefore the doubled price will be around 400-600. I don't know if this will trigger a rally, but in any case it would be way above of the current sideways channel.

I'm quite sure it would trigger a rally. Price doesn't just double with no other effect. Media hype, etc... there's no better money magnet than a rising price.

Wary

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Who's there?

Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 07:04:17 PM

Quote from: Wary on August 25, 2015, 05:53:53 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 08:12:31 AM

If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel.

Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm.

I agree with it, but I was talking not of what we want, but what will happen. If influx of dollars into bitcoin system is the same and reward is halved, the price will double. The sideways channel is 200-300, therefore the doubled price will be around 400-600. I don't know if this will trigger a rally, but in any case it would be way above of the current sideways channel.

FuckScammer

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MasterLuc, Do you still think this is historical III ? Apparently,$210-318 is not sub wave 1.

btc4lifer

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Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 07:04:17 PM

While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm.

We are getting plenty of volatility, let just keep it up. Grin

masterluc

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Quote from: Wary on August 25, 2015, 05:53:53 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 25, 2015, 08:12:31 AM

If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel.

Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm.

madjules007

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Quote from: Afrikoin on August 25, 2015, 05:19:30 PM

Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW.

You missed the point. An impulse (Historical I) can be either a I or an A. There is nothing prima facie that determines that it was a I. So there is no evidence yet to determine whether we saw a Wave II or a Wave B. We won't be able to tell until we see an obvious Wave III.

Yes, it's possible that it was a II, but in terms of validity, there is nothing to indicate whether the grand structure is an impulse or a corrective.

Topic: Analysis - page 159. (Read 941582 times)