Analysis - page 183. | Bitcointalksearch.org

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: SmoothCurves on July 01, 2015, 02:15:00 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on June 30, 2015, 11:42:56 PM

#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71
https://i.imgur.com/FEZW3cG.png

#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.
https://i.imgur.com/ggU8k7m.png

A price of $260/BTC in 2017 sounds unrealistic given the block reward halving in mid 2016, the VC money that keeps pouring into the ecosystem and a probably stock market correction, a new ATH seems more likely to me than a revisit to the $200's

I'm guessing you are referring to #2 and/or #3?
In #3, there would be a new ATH, but it would be the III top and the following IV would be as long or longer than this bear market and would enter the price territory of this correction. Usually close (but not a must) to the low of the previous 4 which was the $152 low from January.

In #2, there are a lot of variables that can change the bottoming date. Don't just assume that what I have drawn is indicative of where it will actually be. The note in that chart is just a guide line and may or may not be fully adhered to in actuality.

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Afrikoin on July 01, 2015, 02:27:23 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on June 30, 2015, 11:42:56 PM

...
#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71
...

Hi Ryan,

Is #2 similar to the chart you posted yesterday? That had a longer deeper II? after the B correction?

Yes, it's pretty much the same. The lines drawn are just a path and no fibo was applied so the actual levels can change a lot depending on where the B were to get

Afrikoin

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alan watts is all you need

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on June 30, 2015, 11:42:56 PM

Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 30, 2015, 08:00:29 PM

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows.

#1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2.

#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71

#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.

Hi Ryan,

Is #2 similar to the chart you posted yesterday? That had a longer deeper II? after the B correction?

SmoothCurves

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on June 30, 2015, 11:42:56 PM

Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 30, 2015, 08:00:29 PM

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows.

#1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2.

#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71

#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.

A price of $260/BTC in 2017 sounds unrealistic given the block reward halving in mid 2016, the VC money that keeps pouring into the ecosystem and a probably stock market correction, a new ATH seems more likely to me than a revisit to the $200's

Fatman3001

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Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC

Quote from: windjc on June 30, 2015, 08:50:17 PM

Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 30, 2015, 08:00:29 PM

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

That list is true.

I'd chime in and say that masterluc and Ry have been the most accurate. Although right now they very much disagree. (tiebreaker for champion EWer of the world?).

Chessnut has gotten much better after giving up his bullish bias several months ago.

DanV has made 1 or 2 signature calls, but overall is inaccurate as hell.

Sorry Dan.

Total noob question: Is this amount and scope of hit&miss/disagreement normal with TA, or is it due to bitcoins diverse nature or perhaps its maturity?

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 30, 2015, 08:00:29 PM

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows.

#1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2.

#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71

#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.

windjc

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Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 30, 2015, 08:00:29 PM

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

That list is true.

I'd chime in and say that masterluc and Ry have been the most accurate. Although right now they very much disagree. (tiebreaker for champion EWer of the world?).

Chessnut has gotten much better after giving up his bullish bias several months ago.

DanV has made 1 or 2 signature calls, but overall is inaccurate as hell.

Sorry Dan.

BitcoinNewsMagazine

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I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

realdos

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Quote from: masterluc on June 30, 2015, 02:32:13 AM

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

Master, for historical wave three it should also consist of five sub-waves. What price level do you think the first sub-wave should reach and when could we expect it?

ssmc2

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Quote from: lebing on June 30, 2015, 11:26:47 AM

Quote from: ssmc2 on June 30, 2015, 08:08:41 AM

Wouldn't we be closer to this point?

No, its more about a quiet uncertain time after one or more waves that have tried and failed to pierce the downtrend. I think we are on the edge of going back up again in similar proportions to that time period in question.

Makes sense, I see your point. And I hope we do.

HI-TEC99

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Quote from: masterluc on June 30, 2015, 02:19:51 PM

Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 30, 2015, 01:06:20 PM

masterluc, what do you think of DanV's alternate count that still calls for a lower low to complete the eight wave cycle properly?

Well I don't except, but think it has smaller odds because all my time projections had been passed.

His count will require 2-4 years of revisiting lows and trying to break out. That is too much time for wave two I think.

Additionally I have one more "iron" indicator now - weekly sma200, which is appeared not too much time ago. And I don't think it will surrender. If it will then we will see bear epoch.

DanV has been predicting 120 since September 2014 and it's gone nowhere near it. Those waiting for 120 in October 2014 got burned because they took his adbice. The closest it got was 150 on Bitstamp in January. Masterluc has made much more accurate counts than DanV and deserves recognition for it.

keystroke

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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

Also the difficulty rises have slowed down since June 2014 when we were getting double digit percentage increases in difficulty twice a month : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

The hash rate has been relatively stable now for the last four months which makes miners happy. This combined with the halving in the late spring/early summer of 2016 has the effect of tightening up coin supply.

masterluc

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Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 30, 2015, 01:06:20 PM

masterluc, what do you think of DanV's alternate count that still calls for a lower low to complete the eight wave cycle properly?

Well I don't except, but think it has smaller odds because all my time projections had been passed.

His count will require 2-4 years of revisiting lows and trying to break out. That is too much time for wave two I think.

Additionally I have one more "iron" indicator now - weekly sma200, which is appeared not too much time ago. And I don't think it will surrender. If it will then we will see bear epoch.

BitcoinNewsMagazine

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Quote from: masterluc on June 30, 2015, 02:32:13 AM

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

masterluc, what do you think of DanV's alternate count that still calls for a lower low to complete the eight wave cycle properly?

Quote

No matter how high the price might reach, it is important to note that this will be only retracement bounce retracing the decline from Nov 2013 to recent 151 low not a new Bullish Cycle. Meaning that on completion we will drop to retest 151 zone or make new lower low.

bclcjunkie

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mostly it's fake volume from okcoin that appears to be leading the rally. it might just end up as the next mtgox we'll see...

Quote from: tarmi on June 30, 2015, 08:27:08 AM

Quote from: windjc on June 30, 2015, 04:08:55 AM

However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.

I think this ltc bubble is the result of bitfinex credit expansion, not ltc halving. the trigger was the pending halving, yes.

I find it unreal simply because I have my doubts about money flowing at this pace into ltc, and not btc.

lebing

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Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: ssmc2 on June 30, 2015, 08:08:41 AM

Wouldn't we be closer to this point?

No, its more about a quiet uncertain time after one or more waves that have tried and failed to pierce the downtrend. I think we are on the edge of going back up again in similar proportions to that time period in question.

Pruden

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Spanish Bitcoin trader

Quote from: vphen on June 30, 2015, 04:50:37 AM

Quote from: masterluc on June 30, 2015, 02:32:13 AM

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

I am not really understand what does master mean due to my poor english reading.

3 (Weekly sma20) breakout or not yet?
2 (Daily sma200) breakout or not yet?
1 (Log trendline) breakout or not yet?

Notice all of them have been broken already.

tarmi

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Quote from: windjc on June 30, 2015, 04:08:55 AM

However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.

I think this ltc bubble is the result of bitfinex credit expansion, not ltc halving. the trigger was the pending halving, yes.

I find it unreal simply because I have my doubts about money flowing at this pace into ltc, and not btc.

ssmc2

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Quote from: lebing on June 30, 2015, 01:19:09 AM

Quote from: lebing on June 13, 2015, 10:07:13 AM

To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.

As said above, self quotes are the best quotes ^^

Wouldn't we be closer to this point?

boumalo

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Quote from: h3speros on June 30, 2015, 04:46:20 AM

to be clear luc has said previously that if price breaks w20 goes to upper line then bounces from middle line then he thinks odds for bull get considerably higher (not exactly hes words)

264$ on bitstamp, 300$ will probably be crossed this summer

Topic: Analysis - page 183. (Read 941582 times)