Topic: Analysis - page 185. (Read 941582 times)

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

Absolutely we could see such a formation, but it would eventually turn into multiple nested waves which has as far as I see, cannot happen since the two moves off the bottom (314 and 304) are both 3 wavers invalidating a long term bullish move.

The idea of this beginning up as a 5th instead of the larger degree 3 that luc proposed, has a complete alternate count that has us done in the bear market as a 4th but it is a bit forced, imo, though it is plausible.

Last summer you were one of the few people here prepared to say you didn't think the bottom was in, and that we had to go below the previous ATH and stay there for some time. Some people called you a troll for it but you were right. Thanks for sharing your view of today's situation.

Do we really have to see impulse wave? I don't know much about EW, but could we not make something like rounding bottom (slow change of trend and then acceleration as it moves higher).

Sounds legit. And because it is unexpected, probability is high it even works out this way. On the other hand. I think bitcoin develops in steps, as it tries to find it's real usage in the world. While I am not seeing $70 on the wall. I could easily see a retest of current values after a mini-bubble to ~$700.

My take on the log trend is that the market will have to make an important decision within a few weeks. That will be either the catalyst for the (at least mid term) bull market or the failure and continuation of the bear market. If it can pull away from the down trend then a nice rally should follow. But it is still my opinion that lower lows will be had before ATH's.

I believe I posted a chart in chessnut's thread about the Big B wave idea... Ew technician's also use time as a guide line. In Bitcoin I have observed that it's far from perfect, but very often it is right on, and almost always is within a small margin of error. What I'm getting at is that the time spent all those months of down down down add up to about the expected time spent in the wave A of a 2nd wave of one larger degree.

Take a look here
A wave-II takes 61.8%-161.8% of the time taken in the Wave-I. Trading view tools are a little retarded sometimes. I assure you those numbers are correct. I would even accept a little error, but that bottom is still so far ahead of time. At best, we have completed a smaller wave 4 and could see ATH's before LL's, but I'll see if we can break $400 first.

I agree with luc that what we have seen is a completed zigzag from the top to 152, and that things are looking pretty bullish lately, but I disagree that what we have off the bottom is impulsive without ignoring waves that are there or assuming waves that aren't there. So I'm still for the large B wave if we see a decent rally here.

So after the breakout of current log downtrend, is the scenario in which price hit weekly upper BB and collapse to weekly 20 sma and followed by a long silence phase still valid?

Again, thank you Master Luc for your continuous professional and rational analysis.

Hear, Hear!

I hope so, theyve been laughing at me too long.

Yep, this is the start of something epic and other worldly. We've earned it after going through the last year and a half tho. The time will come when all those people you talked about bitcoin to will be being super friendly to you.

Agreed. No telling how long it will take Wave 3 to play out. Maybe by 2018?

lmao

Folks, dont send in your job resignations just yet.

That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Bitcoin trades more like a commodity IMO.

very long II there. If indeed it is II, then the IV will be incredibly longer don't you think?

From wikipedia...

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

Wave III means BIG!!!