Topic: Analysis - page 180. (Read 941563 times)

Don't we need Sunday evening to roll around to get weekly close above weekly upper bb?

Historical III on the way. I waited it since 2011.

I expect bubble series in coming years. The first one starts now. First bubble target should be lower than ATH.

I have never saw so bullish Lucif. Looks like he has sold his account.

Bubble confirmed 99%. Fasten your belts.

Weekly rsi close above 50
Weekly SS also there
Weekly macd approaches to zero line
Weekly ADX on low start
Price close above weekly BB

Here we go.

masterluc thank you so much for your advice and your estimates. What is your price estimate for this moon discovery? And at timeframe do you estimate that the rocket will land?

But the correction there also gives stuff to think about.

Of course rally will come eventually. I'm just trying to figure out what to do now - to sell or not to sell

No rally in your graph just means -> rally postponed for some more month. Could very well live with that, as I am preparing to put a lot more monies into bitcoin by the end of the year.

Does the recent Litecoin pump play any role in your thoughts? It feels to me like it may have aroused some appetites, like an appetizer for the main course. A reminder that parabolic runs are not a thing of the past; and FOMO may be easier to trigger now in those who missed out on the Litecoin action.

I didn't. I said probably. Downtrend in Bitcoin isn't parabolic. I can't say it's over until price leave trend channel plus some indicators to identify start of strong reversal.

It was by this way:
1. I identified big bullish wedge and according to it's typical count assumed there should be throw over the bottom line and it should be a bottom. Actually it was. I declared LONG at 270.
2. Once price left wedge to upside - there was no blow up action - just flat. I suggested that there should be other hints leaving downtrend and started to monitor logarithmic trend. Along with that there was a possibility for new lows.
3. Silence period was prolonged and I discovered weekly sma200 at ~210 which looked as massive resistance and not gonna surrender. So the further path should be probably up like in 2012.
4. Then was clear impulsive move up to logarithmic trend line and break of it. And I said I see the moon.
5. Today is last week day and price is above weekly upper bb. And I say now we sit at  Cape Canaveral in a rocket of Appolo mission of new moon discovery. Operator counts down.

Parabolic top may be identified more accurately. Because once it stops acceleration - it will crash. In 2013 ATH first (266) and second (1200) I saw clear signs of slowing down rise acceleration and said it's over. And it was over less than day. 50% crash was after.

TLDR: I can't identify a bottom in it's time. I can identify bottom after price already far from it. But I can identify parabolic top, while price in it.

But you successfully predicted the bottom when the price fell from 300ish to 150. 

You can't survive on selling bananas alone.

Who knows? I can identify only reversal. Analyst job is hard

What would be a target price for that short term bubble?

People react in anticipation of price changes not on order book changes. Money will come if people think price is going up.

Ratio of total bids vs. total asks, for example.

Bitstamp




Bitfinex




Not a perfectly reliable indicator obviously ("hidden" coins/USD, orderbook being painted), but strong divergences (such as now) tend to show an effect, by my experience.

But I guess what you're saying is: fuck the order book?

The problem is that the litecoin ponzi pump is highly misleading, it amplified a normal market movement for bitcoin.
It seems 76 million $ were used to pump litecoin, and the abnormal spike of BTC in China is related to the ponzi.
Those behind the ponzi have cashed out some in BTC, but what will happen when the ponzi will burst?

The bid side looks depleted, just like at the peak in March. If the uptrend can be sustained for the next days,
and stabilize significantly above 305$, then there is a good chance the bear market is over.

As for my avatar, if someone finds it offensive, feel free to report it to the moderator...

I don't have idea what is "bid side" in TA.