Analysis - page 184. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Queeq

sr. member

Activity: 427

Merit: 250

Quote from: vphen on June 30, 2015, 04:50:37 AM

Quote from: masterluc on June 30, 2015, 02:32:13 AM

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

I am not really understand what does master mean due to my poor english reading.

3 (Weekly sma20) breakout or not yet?
2 (Daily sma200) breakout or not yet?
1 (Log trendline) breakout or not yet?

Countdown it seems to be.

vphen

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Quote from: masterluc on June 30, 2015, 02:32:13 AM

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

I am not really understand what does master mean due to my poor english reading.

3 (Weekly sma20) breakout or not yet?
2 (Daily sma200) breakout or not yet?
1 (Log trendline) breakout or not yet?

h3speros

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

to be clear luc has said previously that if price breaks w20 goes to upper line then bounces from middle line then he thinks odds for bull get considerably higher (not exactly hes words)

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: windjc on June 30, 2015, 04:08:55 AM

Well a few points to add to you and Oda.

I think a run up to $410 right here would be like Christmas for the bulls. 18 months of bear is oppressive. When you see people talk to $120k bitcoin on next wave, its just blowing off steam. At least right now.

However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.

Good to read you again.

Agreed. Impending halving, and that we have the strongest order book picture in a long time, are both valid reasons to be bullish.

Maybe my post came across the wrong way:

I'm not bearish. I'm just not convinced that "dsma200+wsma20+logTL" = end of bear market. It rather signals "another serious attempt to end it", imo.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: Afrikoin on June 30, 2015, 03:19:19 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 30, 2015, 03:02:53 AM

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.

That OR, bears (like myself) have retreated. gone back to our caves. Bulls are out partying.

Regarding June 14

Well a few points to add to you and Oda.

I think a run up to $410 right here would be like Christmas for the bulls. 18 months of bear is oppressive. When you see people talk to $120k bitcoin on next wave, its just blowing off steam. At least right now.

However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Quote from: oda.krell on June 30, 2015, 03:02:53 AM

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.

That OR, bears (like myself) have retreated. gone back to our caves. Bulls are out partying.

Regarding June 14

tarmi

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1011

Quote from: oda.krell on June 30, 2015, 03:02:53 AM

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.

indeed.

it is quite concerning given the fact that the volume is not so convincing and that an altcoin is having unreal bull run.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.

Looks to me like we had a very similar set up in June '14 already: DSMA200 broken, weekly close above SMA20, and the then most plausible log downtrend line was decisively broken a few days before. Didn't help in the end, price fell back below the DSMA200, struggled a bit, then broke down entirely.

So, to me it looks rather like we have another real shot at breaking out of the yearly trend, but not that it's a certainty we will do so.

Then again, maybe that's where EW comes in, and I just don't know much about it.

Perhaps those who count just have a strong intuition that June was 'too early', and now is 'about right', so: June '14 and now are very different, even if, from my perspective, the two situations look similar.

P.S. Thanks luc for your continued input. This is probably my favorite thread on the entire forum.

masterluc

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1013

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Quote from: SmoothCurves on June 29, 2015, 11:07:41 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on June 29, 2015, 07:02:13 PM

Quote from: SmoothCurves on June 29, 2015, 06:39:26 PM

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

Heh yeah, no matter how you slice it, top of Wave III will be absurd. Many people on this sub will be millionaires if they can hold out that long.

how long is 'long'?

Chef Ramsay

legendary

Activity: 1568

Merit: 1001

Quote from: BitcoinNewsMagazine on June 29, 2015, 11:23:02 PM

Quote from: vphen on June 29, 2015, 10:45:07 PM

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ？

Well both the upper log trend line and the SMA 200 have been taken out on the daily chart. Let's see what happens overnight.

We gotta go up now. By such a big margin.

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: lebing on June 13, 2015, 10:07:13 AM

To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.

As said above, self quotes are the best quotes ^^

StarenseN

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1362

From this 6 months old analyse

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/nOHd1wTW-1-Year-falling-wedge-is-close-to-completion/

BitcoinNewsMagazine

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1164

Quote from: vphen on June 29, 2015, 10:45:07 PM

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ？

Well both the upper log trend line and the SMA 200 have been taken out on the daily chart. Let's see what happens overnight.

SmoothCurves

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on June 29, 2015, 07:02:13 PM

Quote from: SmoothCurves on June 29, 2015, 06:39:26 PM

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

Heh yeah, no matter how you slice it, top of Wave III will be absurd. Many people on this sub will be millionaires if they can hold out that long.

vphen

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ？

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: SmoothCurves on June 29, 2015, 06:39:26 PM

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

SmoothCurves

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

lyth0s

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

World Class Cryptonaire

Quote from: SmoothCurves on June 29, 2015, 05:24:40 PM

Quote from: lyth0s on June 29, 2015, 05:19:45 PM

Quote from: SmoothCurves on June 29, 2015, 11:53:37 AM

Quote from: masterluc on June 29, 2015, 07:50:22 AM

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...

That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

Correct.

(1163/2.22) = 523.8 * 1.618 = 847 * 156 = $132,229

I rounded down some numbers to get 120k.

Could you please explain why you divided the ATH by 2.22? And where did the 156 multiple come from?

SmoothCurves

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

Quote from: lyth0s on June 29, 2015, 05:19:45 PM

Quote from: SmoothCurves on June 29, 2015, 11:53:37 AM

Quote from: masterluc on June 29, 2015, 07:50:22 AM

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...

That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

Correct.

(1163/2.22) = 523.8 * 1.618 = 847 * 156 = $132,229

I rounded down some numbers to get 120k.

Topic: Analysis - page 184. (Read 941582 times)