Topic: Analysis - page 20. (Read 941579 times)

From empirical observation, the big booms exhibit a phase relationship with the halvings.
Cycle frequency, a bit less than four years.
You don't see the halvings causing immediate frenzy.  
Rather, momentum builds abetted by the halving's effects.

On Telegram, yeah: https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/48
However, he also posts forecasts on Tradingview (in English): https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/


Thanks for sharing.

I think he's wrong about this. I don't believe markets are efficient at pricing in speculative and psychological events. It's impossible to know that halvings have no effect on price. In fact, the proximity of the August 2012 and June 2016 rallies to halvings suggests the opposite.

Another post from masterluc today.

"Everyone is shouting: halving, halving.  And in the comments under my ideas rave about them.  So, a fresh look.  I have the audacity to say that halving, as a scalar event, does not affect the price chart at all.  Two previous halving I experienced and observed.  Generally zero to ground.  Halving points fall into completely random places of different trends.  And they do not cause anything, not even the slightest reaction of the market, despite the general excitement and fundamental nature of the event.

 You know, this is probably a phenomenon even.  But there is an explanation.  Halving is the nature of Bitcoin, a metaphysical phenomenon that creates its essence and the manifestation of which cannot be found on the surface.  Halving is manifested in the fact that bitcoin is growing for a long time.  And in the spring you will not see anything special."

Here's my OPINION this is a "Bear Trap" and we WILL continue going up:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/mP4ggYGh-MESSAGE-2-TO-BEARS-Here-s-SUPPORT-This-is-a-Bear-Trap/

He just seems cautious and does not necessary predict a $6,000 dip.

Doesn't MasterLuc normally post in Russian?

Yeah,  think I prefer his chart from December 2018 lol

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.




I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

I don't think that's the max pain scenario. Too many people are bearish. Too many are saying things like "the halving is already priced in." I've seen a bunch of people claiming the stock-to-flow model has failed too.

People sound just like they did in early 2016. Remember what happened 2 months before the 2016 halving? (Hint: the price doubled!)


I didn't want to be the one to call that out, but yes. I don't know what he's thinking.


This isn't specific to crypto. Multiple alternative wave counts are necessary when analyzing any instrument.

Of course, I never implied they did not. I have been using Fibonacci extensions and retracements for many years. They are much more useful than Elliott Wave. That is an example of an indicator that has a good track record with bitcoin, like 3 day RSI. Elliott Wave is dismal for bitcoin. PnF is very good as is Ichimoku.

but Fibonacci retracements do work with Bitcoin. probably also extensions and expansions.

https://forums.babypips.com/t/fibonacci-extension-vs-fibonacci-expansion/128495/7

Elliott Wave is not that useful for trading cryptos IMO. Too many alternate wave counts. You are better off just waiting for a strong trend, buying on a pullback and using your judgment as a trader on where to set your stop losses and when to take profits. During the last bull run Fibonacci extensions were quite useful in setting profit targets, as was the 3 day RSI. Spend some time learning point and figure charting rather than Elliott Wave you will be rewarded.

Really the simple indicators can be all you need in a strong bull market. Take a look at the weekly BTC/USD Bitstamp chart and put up 50 and 200 simple moving averages. Look at the last bull market. That was a strong bull run and just trading the moving averages you would have gone long at $300 and exited at $9000. Now few expected a blow off top at $19666 but if you also monitored the 3 day RSI you could have held your position until 3 day RSI was over 92 and got out close to the top. You had warning to exit on the following dead cat bounce. Experienced traders went short then.

Again just following weekly 3 day RSI when that indicator dropped below 23 in January 2015 that was a clear signal to start opening longs. Anyone who did has been well rewarded. That ended the bear market. We are currently in a bull market but sentiment right now is neutral. You should have already bought thousands of dollars ago. If you want to go long now just dollar cost average or watch the 3 day RSI and start buying when that indicator is oversold at 30.

Don't follow anyone blindly you will likely get burnt. Learn to analyze markets yourself and make your own trading decisions. Input from other technicians is useful but take responsibility for your own trades. Stay away from day trading because the pros who actually do it for a living will eat you for a light snack. Concentrate on longer time frames. If you are too lazy to do the work just buy and hold.

"FlibFlib" and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter also offer very good analysis.

Oh that's surprising to be honest I haven't reviewed the users TA to see how accurate it is, so I wouldn't put too much merit into another piece of analysis. Unless of course their TA is generally very accurate, or that this starts to become accurate. But by the looks of it, by the time it's accurate it'd be too late as it were (without there being an arrow for price to follow as with the in genius piece of TA). Then again, they predicted a move from $3K to $14K that no-one was expecting either, so who knows.

Either way, I don't like the lines. I'm OK with the resistance trend-line as enough speculators have identified it as relevant (even the bearish Tone agree breaking through would be fully bullish), but the support trend-line with two "sets" of touch-points looks like it's on a pivot form $3K that could be angled in many different ways. Personally, when looking at a longer-term support trend-line, I prefer connecting 2016 & 2019 on a log chart, that is a lot steeper, but I feel holds more relevance. This referenced chart's 2017 support point doesn't even connect with the lows either.


I also prefer accurate TA, the older the better 


Couldn't agree more to be honest. There are times when linear charts makes sense, macro Weekly/Monthly views aren't those times.
Bookmarked +1.

Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.

I find it odd that masterluc no longer posts on this forum. TBH I find Enky Nakamura, Josh Olszewicz and John Bollinger more useful to follow at present.

I haven't either. It was an amazing prediction. For whatever reason, he has apparently abandoned it though, and is now predicting a return to the 200-week MA to build out this long term triangle.



I definitely prefer his December 2018 prediction.

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).



My only criticism is that they should of used smaller arrows to draw the lines 

Well done, enjoyable read!

Especially enjoyed your chart with the mapping on a possible bubble top for the next run-up after the halving:

In December 2018 masterluc wrote on his PentarhUdi trandingview account that bitcoin was
" leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend"

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is well worth pursuing.  But I don't think Tradingview has the right tools for it. Masterluc just glommed a couple of vague swoopy curved lines on the chart.  Yet we can do much better.

I went to bitcoincharts(dot)com to download the price history for Mt Gox and Bitstamp, and concatenated them in a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet for a continuous price history going back to 2010.
Then I ran iterated quadratic regressions.  The parabola has a horizontal axis of course, which means treating time as a function of price.  Once you get the quadratic, easy enough to solve it, giving a conventional graph with price as a function of time.
results here

https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/

After deriving the parabola for the line of support (red on the chart), I found that by shifting that curve 45 months in time, it just touched the last two big blow-off tops; you can see this line in green on the chart.  The two parabolas are essentially identical, sharing the same axis and focal length.  The nested parabolas never intersect.