Analysis - page 18. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Wind_FURY

legendary

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Quote from: cAPSLOCK on March 09, 2020, 09:35:52 PM

Quote from: exstasie on February 09, 2020, 03:29:52 PM

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

Quote from: Masterluc

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called... Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right. I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Why? That's very short-term thinking of you. If it crashes to $6,000 this year, to make new ATH on 2022 or 2023, wouldn't we be very thankful for the golden opportunity to buy another dip? Cool

kellrobinson

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Quote from: exstasie on March 11, 2020, 04:05:19 AM

Quote from: gentlemand on March 10, 2020, 06:41:56 AM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on March 09, 2020, 09:35:52 PM

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

Bottoms are only visible in hindsight. It's possible we are near (or have already seen) the bottom. That goes for both the stock market and BTC, both of which have a tendency towards overextended crashes and V-bottom recoveries that leave everyone chasing.

By the time sentiment is back to "business as usual" prices could be up 15-30% from here.

It's business as usual right now, People can't see it.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

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Quote from: gentlemand on March 10, 2020, 06:41:56 AM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on March 09, 2020, 09:35:52 PM

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

Bottoms are only visible in hindsight. It's possible we are near (or have already seen) the bottom. That goes for both the stock market and BTC, both of which have a tendency towards overextended crashes and V-bottom recoveries that leave everyone chasing.

By the time sentiment is back to "business as usual" prices could be up 15-30% from here.

gentlemand

legendary

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on March 09, 2020, 09:35:52 PM

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

cAPSLOCK

legendary

Activity: 3766

Merit: 5146

Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!

Quote from: exstasie on February 09, 2020, 03:29:52 PM

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

Quote from: Masterluc

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called... Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right. I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Majormax

legendary

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Quote from: Majormax on February 22, 2020, 08:54:30 PM

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

7000 not that far away now. Hopefully the low comes in around that. That will be a higher low than the big 6400. The prospect of the halvening rise is receding now. Have to hope that this price action is not signalling a continuing long term bear market.

The problem (as has been very clear for 6 months), is that lower highs of 13500 and 10500 have held (the latter retested and lost again) and now they form very hard long term resistance.

I would guess this year will be a very long one (what with all the global issues).

Wind_FURY

legendary

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Quote from: kellrobinson on February 22, 2020, 11:17:53 PM

Quoting masterluc/PentarhUdi's famous tradingview post of Dec 2, 2018

As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate.

Here's a SQRT-style trend.
Will honey badger stay in the chute; will she break red, will she break green?

It's practical. Because the liquidity required to push Bitcoin from $1 to $10,000 is magnitudes lesser than it would take to push Bitcoin from $10,000 to $100,000.

drays

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As far as I know, this SQRT trend was popularized by Masterluk lately (he saw that somewhere and liked it a lot), based on a pure intuition and inspired by the fact that the Bitcoin inflation decreases in SQRT style. Basically that is just a wild guess, with no rational ground behind it.

exstasie

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on February 24, 2020, 12:44:11 PM

I see these SQRT trend lines being used more now, any rational basis for that beyond pretty coloured line-fitting?

Is there some new SQRT adoption curve dynamics being discovered here?

I don't think so. It's just curve fitting. The bottom SQRT trend line has lots of "touches" so maybe it serves as a better basis for extrapolation? The upper trend line only has two touches, however.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

I see these SQRT trend lines being used more now, any rational basis for that beyond pretty coloured line-fitting?

Is there some new SQRT adoption curve dynamics being discovered here? And what is the longer term resolution of that trend, SQRT for ever and ever?

Sigmoids have a basis in technology adoption theory that is plainly logical and have defined beginning and end points that make sense. SQRT can only be a temporary trend at best, although may be applicable for years, decades even maybe. The problem for sigmoids and bitcoin right now is the final end point is still a moving target, 100% monetary adoption seemingly incomprehensible, so guesses at proportions of total monetary wealth that may finally be stored in bitcoin being the feeble best estimates for what shape a sigmoid might ultimately take.

kellrobinson

sr. member

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Quoting masterluc/PentarhUdi's famous tradingview post of Dec 2, 2018

As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate.

Here's a SQRT-style trend.
Will honey badger stay in the chute; will she break red, will she break green?

Biodom

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Quote from: Majormax on February 22, 2020, 08:54:30 PM

Quote from: exstasie on February 21, 2020, 04:40:03 PM

Quote from: STT on February 21, 2020, 03:45:20 PM

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.

The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening. As market cap increaes in weight, it requires a greater and greater weight of Fiat to move price by a given %. The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Past cycles here are a relatively poor guide to the future now, if only because there is relatively little data on long term trends (having not got to the 'long term' yet).

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

I understand this reasoning, but, interestingly enough, moves DOWN changed only marginally from cycle to cycle (-94%, -85% and -84%).
Why, if this is the case, the moves UP shall dissipate? They might not, at least not for the next one.

exstasie

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Quote from: Majormax on February 22, 2020, 08:54:30 PM

Quote from: exstasie on February 21, 2020, 04:40:03 PM

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.

The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening.

You're just extrapolating the past price trend into the future. Extrapolations are inherently unreliable.

Quote from: Majormax on February 22, 2020, 08:54:30 PM

The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Something that's very difficult to predict is the effect of supply drying up. The price can rocket higher on the basis of an extremely thin ask side as holders refuse to sell. Demand is not the only factor.

Bears always assert that the market will require increasingly and unreasonable amounts of capital to keep moving higher, but that's not necessarily true, depending on supply.

Majormax

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on February 21, 2020, 04:40:03 PM

Quote from: STT on February 21, 2020, 03:45:20 PM

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.

The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening. As market cap increaes in weight, it requires a greater and greater weight of Fiat to move price by a given %. The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Past cycles here are a relatively poor guide to the future now, if only because there is relatively little data on long term trends (having not got to the 'long term' yet).

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

STT

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on February 21, 2020, 04:40:03 PM

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise

The halvening deal is we come away from the Satoshi's block reward and it leaves the rails and does its own thing. Its amazing someone was able to plan out something so far ahead and it actually worked to any extent. I think of it opposite to noise though its a new sector, etc. Really volatile but we were on that set plan where as more in future its going to just rely on free market supply and demand and eventually no block reward hence I say it matters less every time by his design that is.
Really the main thing that is for sure is tried and tested dynamic to all speculative markets which is buy the rumor sell the news. Its rumor because halvening hasn't arrived yet and after it happens, it is the news ie. its happened and there is some pressure from speculative sells. Doesnt always have to do that but its one of the most repeated cycles that happens I think.

El duderino_

legendary

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BTC + Crossfit, living life.

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on February 21, 2020, 11:55:19 PM

Quote from: Bossian on February 20, 2020, 07:38:20 AM

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

I conclude that the herd is wrong also .... btc is going to bull run much further than 2017 or 2013 low:high ratio, and more like 2011 vertical craziness ... begins 3-6 months after the halving peaking around 500k in 1-2Q 2021.

A nice noon and a bullish HOPIUM post, what more can the dude ask for Cheesy

kellrobinson

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Merit: 380

Yeah, I didn't look close enough at your image. The vertical axis is clearly labeled erf(x)
The error function is defined as the integral of e^-x^2, i.e. the gaussian normal distribution or "bell curve."
The logistic function is the hyperbolic tangent, shifted and scaled to put the asymptotes at 0 and 1.
They both have sigmoidal shapes.

Just dropping this for anybody who's interested in sigmoid functions in general. It compares the error function and the logistic function (labeled "sigmoid" in the figure caption).
For our purposes, I'm not sure there's much practical difference.
But I don't think bitcoin's headed for a quantum leap of adoption and price. It think it's headed for another ordinary bubble, if anything. Nothing to see here, folks.
If you filter out the bubbles, the long term trend will be steadily monotonic.
That's just my opinion.

exstasie

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Quote from: kellrobinson on February 21, 2020, 10:29:05 PM

You are talking about the logistic function, a model of growth which starts as purely exponential and then transitions to a saturation regime.
The sigmoid shape appears when you draw the logistic function on a linear graph. A log graph of the logistic function doesn't have an s-shape.

Sorry if there was confusion, but I was referring to this S-curve, as it relates to the adoption of Bitcoin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle#S-curve

The bell curve probably conveys the idea even better. I contend we have yet to "jump the chasm":

Thus, the strongest wave of adoption is yet to come. Extrapolations based on the past may be unduly limiting.

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: Bossian on February 20, 2020, 07:38:20 AM

Last thing: every time the herd says something, doing the opposite is likely to generate profits.

Right now the herd says we will see a new ATH because of the recent golden cross + incoming halvening.

Make your own conclusions.

I conclude that the herd is wrong also .... btc is going to bull run much further than 2017 or 2013 low:high ratio, and more like 2011 vertical craziness ... begins 3-6 months after the halving peaking around 500k in 1-2Q 2021.

kellrobinson

sr. member

Activity: 304

Merit: 380

Quote from: exstasie on February 21, 2020, 04:40:03 PM

Quote from: STT on February 21, 2020, 03:45:20 PM

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.

The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

You are talking about the logistic function, a model of growth which starts as purely exponential and then transitions to a saturation regime.
The sigmoid shape appears when you draw the logistic function on a linear graph. A log graph of the logistic function doesn't have an s-shape.
The early growth appears as an upward curve on a linear chart (like the one you posted), but looks like a straight line on a log chart.

When saturation effects begin damping the growth rate, the linear graph exhibits an inflection point (as on your graph).
On a log graph, the transition to a saturation regime appears as a downward bend from the inital straight-line exponential growth, subsequently approaching a horizontal asymptote.
The logistic function can be expressed as y=1/(1+e^-x), and here is the log graph
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y%3Dlog%281%2F%281%2Be%5E%28-x%29%29%29%2C-10%3C%3Dx%3C%3D10%2C-10%3C%3Dy%3C%3D1

TLDR: we won't see a sigmoid on the log chart of bitcoin's exchange rate history

Topic: Analysis - page 18. (Read 941579 times)