Topic: Analysis - page 16. (Read 941582 times)

I had a similar conversation with a friend recently, I told him "I don't think it's the best time to buy right now"... at the same time he granted me a loan to buy more 
I made it clear I didn't need the money, it was to put it into Bitcoin, simply to buy more soon rather than later. He agreed to it, friends are great 
If you're not thinking about getting a loan at these prices, I think you might regret it by summer time Bitcoin under $5K is loan material imo.
Not financial advise.

Maybe we can see the bull market comes back in the end of 2020.

When my friends want the latest news about Bitcoin, I say "don't buy, it's dead, it's a just meme, it's a quick path to losses", WHILE I'm thinking about taking loans from them to buy Bitcoin. Hahaha.

Yes. That in itself is a very bearish signal. Price is going lower.

Very quiet day at work today so I had a read at the first 25 pages. Epic post below:



December 4, 2013, Bitcoin around 1k USD, and next month would start to fall, until 2015 when it will trade around 200 USD.

If Masterluc was back in 2016, price started around 400 USD... and the 2017 run we all know  

Also notable points from these 2013 posts: people seem to be much less emotionally involved and much more tolerant towards bearish opinions. This is 2020, you cannot post bearish opinions without being called dumb or retarded, or both. That's the current era we are living in. How times have changed...  


This was epic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.500 masterluc sold exactly at the top of the 2013 bubble, amazing.

Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.


Bitcoin price should navigate between the 3.5k range and 6.4k range for a while. In the long term I am pretty sure we will test the 6.4k resistance again, in the short term wouldn't be surprised to see the 3.5k support tested too. Second semester of 2019 we saw the price stay for a while between 6.4k and 10.5k, now we are in 3.5k - 6.4k.
I am very curious to see how Bitcoin price will react if we go near 6.4k. If we break above then it's easy money until 8-9k (lower high compared to 10.5k).
My opinion.

Persnally I'd pay attention to both, based on Bitstamp being a "OG" market with lower volume and Coinbase being a much newer market having higher volume from retailers and some institutional investment. I consider the different to be CB is "newer money" coming in/out the market, while Bitstamp is "older money" or "older investors".

Of course this is a somewhat of a generalization, but both sets of different volume are very relevant to me. For example at the moment I believe there is proportionately more selling from newer investors, than older investors, which I find reassuring to say the least. This inverse would be highly problematic in my opinion.

I would look at Coinbase, much bigger market. The week isn't even done and this is the second highest on record. On Bitstamp, it was the biggest daily volume since the February 2018 v-bottom so not inconsequential.


Here's an idea based on Masterluc's triangle: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54020305

Good guess, but no))

No, I have some more coins in stash. But I'll try to sell more. It would be great to see short bounce to 7K or so. . IMHO there will be 2500-2800 in the end of this year. So, I'll buy som back. Also I'll keep few coins for better times..
PS: Sold another 2 coins just now.

That is a good point as well.  The true bottom of each bear market has actually been quite a way above the top of the previous bull , only very close if you consider the transitory spikes.

A second thought to my post above :   Likely the bear market of 2018-202x is not yet over. A slow consolidation above 3800, or a spike down to sub-2000 might be the end. ...but then we would have to go through crypto winter, and it would be a long one.  Possible 2025 before full recovery. That is not so far out of line with the lengthening cycles.

The alternative is not good and best not to discuss.

Agree. The technicals of this move are bad.  At the very worst moment of carnage , the 7000 level should have provided support to remain bullish. at the very least 6400 to remain neutral. The very last line is that 3850, below that, price is never going to recover.

The 10 year bullish structure has been nearly destroyed according to the chart. Selling now would be the technical traders unquestioned response. Anything near 6000 would be a chance to get out.

The volume wasn't high enough for a panic low either. That could be expected at around 100% market cap in  a day.

Cautionary note : this is merely TA, but it is a very classic case.

Nice analysis.

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already. After every bubble the bottom has been around the peak of the previous bubble, so I imagine there are a lot of old school buy orders waiting around 1100-1500. At those prices it won't need much fiat to make a floor there, and once there's a floor then it''ll likely just ping back up to these kinds of prices again.

He didn't reply. He might be very busy calling his/her exchange/bank to cancel his/her wire transfer, and trying to get all his fiat back to his/her exchange account, and buy Bitcoin again. Hahaha.

The path to FOMO.

Nothing so nefarious. By "they" I mean what Richard Wyckoff called "the Composite Man."


It ties into something called the maximum pain theory. In a nutshell, the market likes to go where it will inflict the most pain on the most traders and investors at once (that's max pain theory) and the Composite Man is the fictitious whale traders who are trading against us. He's the one accumulating our panic dumps and selling into public exuberance before a crash.

It doesn't matter if the Composite Man (or whales manipulating the price) really exist or not. It all ties into market sentiment. When longs heavily pile into the market deep into an uptrend, when everyone finally agrees the only possible direction is up, no one is left to buy. Max pain theory warrants a crash. It's the Composite Man who is selling to all these greedy top buyers.

The only time Coinbase has ever shown weekly volume this high, it was the week of the 2017 top. That tells a lot about the extreme levels of selling volume we just saw. Meanwhile, Bitmex interest rates are insanely in the negative and Bitfinex shorts have tripled.

That leads me to ask, which direction is maximum pain? Who was buying into all that panic selling the last 2 days? Who was selling into all the panic buying in December 2017? The Composite Man, and you always want to trade with him, not against him.

Interesting. Who do you think "they" is this instance?

Are "they" bitcoin's friends or bitcoin enemies? If they are enemies perhaps the whole charade is orchestrated to get a close under the 200WMA and ultimately destroy bitcoin. Then they fight you.

it's scary as hell! i remember feeling a lot like this during those epic plunges in jan or aug 2015. hodlers finally capitulate and puke up their coins, then the market hammers back up leaving them nocoiners.

i'm trying to draw on those experiences now because it's tempting to capitulate with everyone else. i'm glad i managed to sell some coin in the $9000s and $10000s but fuck, i sure wish i sold more! i did not expect this epic crash at all.

it's gonna take some time to rebuild from here. the bubble (if it's still on the menu at all) has been obviously been postponed.

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

Are you/have you sold then?  You seem pretty sure.  I am less so, so I am leaving my value on the table.  It's definitely a scary time.