Analysis - page 15. | Bitcointalksearch.org

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 11105

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Majormax on March 17, 2020, 04:31:32 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on March 16, 2020, 09:22:24 AM

Quote from: Bossian on March 16, 2020, 09:09:19 AM

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

I would bet on the currently persuasive BTC price prediction models** long before I would be considering bearish nonsense of ceilings of $10k and/or consolidation likelihood in the sub $3k arena.. those models have way the fuck more data behind them rather than the seemingly pure nonsensical extended bear-market thesis that you are propounding.

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

**currently persuasive BTC price prediction models = 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking/metcalfe principles

Wind_FURY

legendary

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1823

Quote from: Bossian on March 16, 2020, 03:05:38 AM

Quote from: exstasie on March 15, 2020, 06:07:22 AM

Quote from: Bossian on March 15, 2020, 05:36:06 AM

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it.

Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:

Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history.
Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins[/bw IMO.

I will think about maxing out both my credit cards, sell my car, sell everything, including my body to get the money to buy more Bitcoin if it crashes to $1,000.

Maybe not "everything, including my body". Hahaha.

Majormax

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1129

Quote from: fabiorem on March 16, 2020, 09:22:24 AM

Quote from: Bossian on March 16, 2020, 09:09:19 AM

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: Bossian on March 15, 2020, 10:21:29 PM

Quote from: exstasie on March 15, 2020, 03:31:45 PM

The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming.

I think the same. I am still bearish but could be wrong (nobody is perfect), but I would wait to buy around 6.5k instead of 5.5k.

There is very established daily pivot resistance at $6K now. The market topped out twice there on notable volume this past week.

So buy stops > $6K make sense now. Once the market breaches it, shorts and trapped sellers should start getting squeezed pretty hard.

Quote from: gentlemand on March 16, 2020, 01:18:05 PM

https://www.longhash.com/en/news/3287/How-High-Leverage-in-the-Crypto-Market-Crashed-Bitcoin-to-$3,800

More on Bitmex here. One geezer in that article is asking for industry wide circuit breakers. I wonder whether that would be popular or hated. It might ruin some peoples', namely Bitmex management, fun.

Butthurt bulls are just blaming Bitmex because they need someone to blame. Everybody is just assuming that because there are liquidations on Bitmex, the spot exchanges must endlessly follow. They won't. At extremes, Bitmex will just diverge from spot prices.

On spot exchanges, actual BTC is required to sell the market down. Algos driven by Bitmex price action will eventually just shut down in these situations for lack of sell liquidity. Plus Bitmex literally only allows withdrawals once per day, so shorters also can't deposit BTC profits onto spot exchanges on demand to keep dumping the market down.

The people crying that Bitmex can bring BTC to $0 are wrong. It's that simple.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

https://www.longhash.com/en/news/3287/How-High-Leverage-in-the-Crypto-Market-Crashed-Bitcoin-to-$3,800

More on Bitmex here. One geezer in that article is asking for industry wide circuit breakers. I wonder whether that would be popular or hated. It might ruin some peoples', namely Bitmex management, fun.

fabiorem

sr. member

Activity: 1400

Merit: 347

Quote from: Bossian on March 16, 2020, 09:09:19 AM

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

Bossian

member

Activity: 450

Merit: 59

Quote from: fabiorem on March 16, 2020, 08:40:30 AM

Quote from: Bossian on March 14, 2020, 09:02:18 AM

Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.

I agree.
However, how much time for a long term investment do you believe this is leading too?

I believe we are going straight to zero in less than a month, and then a vaccine will be released for coronavirus in six months (the vaccine already exists, btw). After that, the price will tank on sub-1000 levels for two years, because there will be few buyers left. It will take five years to arrive at 8k, and maybe six years to arrive at 10k.

I have buy orders in the three-digits area, and spare money left. I never go all-in because I'm not a "believer". In the two-digits area we will have the opportunity to buy dozens of coins.

Mempool already dropped to zero for a short time:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mempool-briefly-drops-to-zero-on-blockchaincom

I was about the post Masterluc's new prediction, thanks Mindtrust for doing so.

Coincidentally it also matches somehow sbgett prediction of a 2.5k price beginning of next year.

We will see. Regarding your post Fabio, it's hard to find the bottom, but I am "betting" on another bubble someday. That's what I am interested in

convenient situation for me now as I sold 95% of my Bitcoin assets. Everything I write here is without any emotion (and that is important).

Now if Masterluc's prediction is correct, that absolutely sucks since 1.8k is a lower low compared to 3k (January 2019). The best is to sit and watch, and wait for a signal that this ugly trend started mi-December 2017 is finally over.

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

fabiorem

sr. member

Activity: 1400

Merit: 347

Quote from: Bossian on March 14, 2020, 09:02:18 AM

Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.

I agree.
However, how much time for a long term investment do you believe this is leading too?

I believe we are going straight to zero in less than a month, and then a vaccine will be released for coronavirus in six months (the vaccine already exists, btw). After that, the price will tank on sub-1000 levels for two years, because there will be few buyers left. It will take five years to arrive at 8k, and maybe six years to arrive at 10k.

I have buy orders in the three-digits area, and spare money left. I never go all-in because I'm not a "believer". In the two-digits area we will have the opportunity to buy dozens of coins.

Mempool already dropped to zero for a short time:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mempool-briefly-drops-to-zero-on-blockchaincom

mindrust

legendary

Activity: 3276

Merit: 2442

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

Majormax

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1129

Quote from: Bossian on March 16, 2020, 03:05:38 AM

Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history.
Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins IMO.

Yes..1k is a very important price.

Based on the 'next low at previous high' pattern, 1-1.5k is just possible without actually breaking the entire BTC bull market.

I felt that the bull market was broken when the price failed at 13.5k and then 10k. Both moves were exponential, and that type of failure without going to ATH, is a big red flag for any market.

Bossian

member

Activity: 450

Merit: 59

Quote from: exstasie on March 15, 2020, 06:07:22 AM

Quote from: Bossian on March 15, 2020, 05:36:06 AM

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it.

Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:

Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history.
Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins IMO.

Bossian

member

Activity: 450

Merit: 59

Quote from: exstasie on March 15, 2020, 03:31:45 PM

The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming.

I think the same. I am still bearish but could be wrong (nobody is perfect), but I would wait to buy around 6.5k instead of 5.5k. Not a big loss in the big picture assuming we see a new ATH (and I sold at 8.8k anyway Kiss

minus the infamous 0.05 because I have to respect LFC views in this matter).

Majormax

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1129

Quote from: figmentofmyass on March 15, 2020, 11:57:58 AM

Quote from: drays on March 15, 2020, 11:17:47 AM

I was looking for the best place to look for volume too, and thought CMC could be one, as it shows volume accumulated over tens of multiple exchanges. So if we look at the volume on the chart here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the volume on these days (March 13-14) is unmatched - way more than ever.

Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Anyone knows a better place to see the overall worldwide BTC volume? Would appreciate if someone point to it.

i wouldn't trust CMC's numbers. i would look at the top "real volume" exchanges as listed here (although i'm not sure if poloniex is legit anymore either): https://twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1109114665240616962

the market saw monumental volume across the board. if that were the only metric that mattered, i'd say we obviously bottomed already.

At least its one metric that is positive.

Looking at that volume chart, it would suggest that the bear market that started in Dec 2017 is only now just starting to complete.

The price information is not quite consistent, because there is something close to a double bottom in place, and that has never happened (not even remotely close) before.

Anyway, if the bear market was ~27 months, then working from that scale, a 6 month consolidation, and a 2 year winter could follow. It puts 2023 as a recovery year.

The chart looks odd and the move incomplete so far, so I would not expect further enlightenment for the rest of this year.

Conclusion : BTC traders and holdlers best go into lockdown/hibernation with most of the world.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: birr on March 15, 2020, 03:09:28 PM

On one hand, high volume leads one to believe the bottom is in.
On the other hand, the weekly closed maybe four hundred dollars below the 200 SMA.

Most traders use UTC for open and closes. It's 8:30 PM UTC on Sunday night, so the weekly candle closes in 3.5 hours.

The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming. Go back to Q3 2015 and you'll see there were 3 (slight) weekly candle closes below the 200-week MA before recovery.

Something I had not noticed before: the 200-week smoothed MA stands at $4,000. We bounced off it just like August 2015.

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

On one hand, high volume leads one to believe the bottom is in.
On the other hand, the weekly closed maybe four hundred dollars below the 200 SMA.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: drays on March 15, 2020, 11:17:47 AM

I was looking for the best place to look for volume too, and thought CMC could be one, as it shows volume accumulated over tens of multiple exchanges. So if we look at the volume on the chart here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the volume on these days (March 13-14) is unmatched - way more than ever.

Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Anyone knows a better place to see the overall worldwide BTC volume? Would appreciate if someone point to it.

i wouldn't trust CMC's numbers. i would look at the top "real volume" exchanges as listed here (although i'm not sure if poloniex is legit anymore either): https://twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1109114665240616962

the market saw monumental volume across the board. if that were the only metric that mattered, i'd say we obviously bottomed already.

drays

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1073

Quote from: exstasie on March 14, 2020, 07:28:28 AM

Quote from: spiderbrain on March 14, 2020, 04:14:49 AM

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already.

I would look at Coinbase, much bigger market. The week isn't even done and this is the second highest on record. On Bitstamp, it was the biggest daily volume since the February 2018 v-bottom so not inconsequential.

Quote from: Majormax on March 14, 2020, 04:32:51 AM

A second thought to my post above : Likely the bear market of 2018-202x is not yet over. A slow consolidation above 3800, or a spike down to sub-2000 might be the end. ...but then we would have to go through crypto winter, and it would be a long one. Possible 2025 before full recovery. That is not so far out of line with the lengthening cycles.

Here's an idea based on Masterluc's triangle: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54020305

I was looking for the best place to look for volume too, and thought CMC could be one, as it shows volume accumulated over tens of multiple exchanges. So if we look at the volume on the chart here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the volume on these days (March 13-14) is unmatched - way more than ever.

Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Anyone knows a better place to see the overall worldwide BTC volume? Would appreciate if someone point to it.

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

The weekly closes in 11 hours.

If it's true, this is the perfect buying opportunity

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: Bossian on March 15, 2020, 05:36:06 AM

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it.

Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:

Bossian

member

Activity: 450

Merit: 59

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

Topic: Analysis - page 15. (Read 941579 times)