Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.
We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.
Nice summary. Pretty close to my own expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating.
Indeed, I share your (and luc's) sentiment. I refer back to this chart;
So far, we've had a nice bounce off the lower trendline and are heading towards resistance. This is a very large wedge, encompassing the entirety of the post-bubble downtrend, and I feel that a break and validation of the pattern may just provide enough momentum to in turn leave this bear market once and for all.
However we may, as you mention, see a self-similar bear cycle repeat. This scenario would also fit with us breaking the wedge since, as one can see in the below zoomed in chart, the April bottom and subsequent May rise was also marked by divergence + wedge breakout
Thus, in my mind the likeliest way such a scenario will play out is by the formation of
yet another, larger fractal wedge (and divergence?)
But of course the problem with patterns of self-similarity is that they're only self-similar until they aren't
Either way, this is all long-term speculation, and there'll be plenty of sub-waves to trade until then. In other words; we will cross that bridge when we get to it!
(sorry for wall of charts
)
