Analysis - page 230. | Bitcointalksearch.org

boumalo

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Activity: 1918

Merit: 1018

Quote from: hdbuck on November 01, 2014, 02:18:19 PM

Quote from: masterluc on November 01, 2014, 02:12:18 PM

Quote from: boumalo on November 01, 2014, 01:30:26 PM

Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.

these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

The market is oblivious to the reality at the moment but it will come to an end; negative news oversea, the capital the innovation and the production in the states have bought the USD some time

Brisance

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Speaking of US debt, it's actually well North of $60 Trillion Dollars some studies are saying as high as $70 Trillion Dollars.

The problem is when you look at sources like the US debt clock which stands at around $18 Trillion what you actually see is only the US Governments "reported" debt not the unreported debt. What the reported debt doesn't show you are current government obligations like Medicade, Social Security obligations which by the way is running close to $25 Trillion in debt itself, deposit insurance, loan guarantees to name a few.

If you want to get your head around "Off Balance Sheet Liabilities" here are a few sources to absorb:

Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities
http://www.nber.org/papers/w19253

US debt six times greater than declared - study
http://rt.com/usa/us-debt-study-hamilton-economy-103/

US debt six times higher than declared
http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/08/07/317608/us-debt-six-times-higher-than-declared/

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1094

Since some believe that the current market movements are similar to the ones in July 2013, here are 2 charts that show they are not.

mmortal03

legendary

Activity: 1762

Merit: 1011

Quote from: hdbuck on November 01, 2014, 02:18:19 PM

rofl, truly amazing.

these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

The following doesn't have the dollar updated for October yet, but the long term dollar trend still looks down to me:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/dollar-gold-and-oil-historical-chart

ssmc2

legendary

Activity: 2002

Merit: 1040

Speaking of endings sir, when will this bear market end? ;P

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Quote from: hdbuck on November 01, 2014, 02:18:19 PM

Quote from: masterluc on November 01, 2014, 02:12:18 PM

Quote from: boumalo on November 01, 2014, 01:30:26 PM

Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.

these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

Whilst I don't agree with the initial analysis predicting doom and the end of the USD. There is some very selective charting going on from both of you

People tend to forget that any bonds held by central banks from the QE programs globally don't really add anything to the national debt of the respective countries. They will simply be held until they expire. Of course it is banana republic economics but because it is going on all the Western economies simultaneously it is tolerated without capital flight.

Last time I checked the BOE owned nearly 40% of british bonds (gilts). Cost to the tax payer ? Nothing as the coupon payments are simply given straight back to the treasury. The net effect is simply expansion of narrow money into the wider economy through government spending (above taxation) to try and stoke up inflation whilst maintaining asset prices from collapse.

hdbuck

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Activity: 1260

Merit: 1002

Quote from: masterluc on November 01, 2014, 02:12:18 PM

Quote from: boumalo on November 01, 2014, 01:30:26 PM

Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.

these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

masterluc

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1013

Quote from: boumalo on November 01, 2014, 01:30:26 PM

Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

They already shared their dotcom and mortage shit along USD holders with QE. Final stage ahead. Our problems = USD holder problems. So one day they'll say - bye bye USD holders, bye bye our problems.

boumalo

legendary

Activity: 1918

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Tzupy on November 01, 2014, 09:06:49 AM

Now that the bullish scenario is looking unlikely, I reviewed the bearish one, and it could be more advanced than I thought.
Here is my current most probable scenario, with a bottom between 150$ and 200$, depending on how many whales will panic.

Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

seleme

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1028

Duelbits.com

What about this?

Tzupy

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Merit: 1094

Now that the bullish scenario is looking unlikely, I reviewed the bearish one, and it could be more advanced than I thought.
Here is my current most probable scenario, with a bottom between 150$ and 200$, depending on how many whales will panic.

sniveling

sr. member

Activity: 719

Merit: 250

Yes it was something like that. This shows a rough picture of it, but it misses out the finer details.

MoreFun

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Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Quote from: XCASH on October 31, 2014, 06:32:16 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on October 28, 2014, 07:34:41 PM

Quote from: lebing on October 28, 2014, 12:34:59 PM

Quote from: p2pbucks on October 28, 2014, 10:44:54 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 26, 2014, 02:55:04 PM

Quote from: N12 on October 25, 2014, 12:03:07 PM

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy

Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.

No, the 30k+ whale pushed it down below $300 and after few minutes pulled it of $300 and set it to $320. Then he pulled it again and after few hours again dump to $300 where it was eaten in 6 hours.

XCASH

legendary

Activity: 929

Merit: 1000

Quote from: MoreFun on October 28, 2014, 07:34:41 PM

Quote from: lebing on October 28, 2014, 12:34:59 PM

Quote from: p2pbucks on October 28, 2014, 10:44:54 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 26, 2014, 02:55:04 PM

Quote from: N12 on October 25, 2014, 12:03:07 PM

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy

Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.

masterluc

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1013

Yes, it's dollar - world most valued paper.

seleme

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1028

Duelbits.com

To be honest, if it is correlated with something it's USD strength. I wouldn't call correlation with current gold drop because dollar massacred everything recently, not just gold.

I doubled my small forex playing account today trading EUR and yen drop vs dollar. Gold,silver, GBP, CAD, AUD.. everything crashed vs dollar.

thefiniteidea

hero member

Activity: 509

Merit: 564

"In Us We Trust"

Quote from: ft73 on October 31, 2014, 05:17:46 AM

Quote from: masterluc on October 31, 2014, 03:48:50 AM

Guess what

You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price"

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos

Lucif, I'm not sure how to use that site, but I'd be curious to see what the correlation is with DDD

CoolStoryBro

member

Activity: 89

Merit: 10

Quote from: ft73 on October 31, 2014, 05:17:46 AM

You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price"

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos

any way to get the same graphs on longer scale?

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Quote from: masterluc on October 31, 2014, 03:48:50 AM

Guess what

You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price"

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos

masterluc

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1013

Guess what

Topic: Analysis - page 230. (Read 941563 times)