Topic: Analysis - page 76. (Read 941579 times)

My most recent update to current location within Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic #2:

Comments included with link below:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MGGsRZO6-BTCUSD-BitStamp-Wyckoff-Accumulation-Schematic-2-Continued/

It seems we are on our way to $7000 as predicted 

Decent recovery in prices, China maybe looks most positive in the charts at least.  Possibly its breaking its negative trend since peaks however looking at Kraken or dollar charts it seems to fit more into just meeting that negative trend more then breaking it.   In any case any change of trend even short term has to be confirmed before its more then just a fluctuation or volatility as normal.

Short term targets I'd like $3600 and above and just 3800 is the target to beat as a ceiling for now.  If we can deal with both positively over the weekend then its reasonable to be less negative in outlook

September 18, 2017:Well, here we visited, as promised, a daytime sma20. A good place to close the scalping positions, who bought at 3300 and below, as suggested on the 14th.

Another good news is that an overlay has been made, the local subwave has climbed into the zone of the previous one, and so this is not an impulse. So this is not the beginning of something reversal. Although the volumes are th-th, but they are eventually accounted for by the bull trend =)

The probability of a new low hangs like a sword of Damocles, or zig-zag, xs. Well, in general, we'll see. If 4300 and higher will go - down is unlikely to go.

Namana. HODL.


Comment:Olga, 7000? Be braver) More, much more. Previous ATH will look like a pimple on the ass with an elephant. Bgg




https://vk.com/bitcoin_vangaBut the truth! Why so far no one thought of? Hesraith Bitcoin 7 Exahexes / sec, hashrate Bitcoin Cash 1 Eksahesh.

September 22, 2017: If you switch Bitcoin cash at least 1 exachech from bitcoin, you can make 51% attack there unattended. Cancel some transaction, stir up the double-back, etc.

This is the "long-fork threat". That is, the threat of a more powerful network in the direction of less powerful. Therefore, two forks on one POW can not exist. One will simply die from the attacks of the other.

In the long term, the threat of long fork extends to all POW forks at all.
Do NOT use bitcoin cash. 51% of attacks are trivial at this point, reversing any number of confirmation .. www.reddit.com

Comment 1: Vladimir, sorry, but you can get rid of 51% only with the code with centralization. And when the block is centralized, it is no longer a block. Yes, you need a collusion of pools to collect 1-2 eksahsha. It is unlikely that one player has such power. Probably on this yet and did not rattled. But the sword of Damocles hangs and if it is possible, it will be.
today at 12:12 pm

Comment 2: And although they say that they can do it by themselves. In the same place it is not necessary for a long time)) all blocks on 20 to include light and to bend any exchange)
today at 12:15 pm

Comment 3 and 4: Vladimir, priority nodes are centralization. I also speak.
                
                             Vladimir, and at what here investors? Investors do not know what a 51% attack is and that BCash themselves substituted for it? So who is the doctor to them that the specks do not read? Security of bitcoin is not threatened with such an attack.
              

Keeping analysis simple bitcoin has been in a bull market since the $152 low of Jamuary 2015. All a trader had to do to make money was buy when price touched the 20 MA on a weekly chart and hold:



Right now the weekly 20 MA is $3046. This is just above the swing high of $2980 back in June. Both together show strong support at the $3000 level. Bull markets eventually end and traders will be watching the weekly 20 MA for confirmation.

Right now bitcoin price is in a trading range $3000 to $5000 while waiting for news on whether China will ban or nationalize bitcoin mining.

Okay, I'm going to try this again [One more time] to try to get involved and be a productive member of this discussion.

I simply wanted to post my thoughts about an article I shared on TradingView.

There is more to it than just that chart.  This link is provided for more input on the news article in question.   Comments are welcome.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/7MP66mCj-This-is-a-Response-to-an-Article-on-Bitcoin-using-Wyckoff-Rules/

HERE is the news article:  https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitcoin-price-analysis-how-rumblings-china-play-wyckoff-distributions/

Any grand projections for year to year should be done on market capitalisation and market share overall in crypto I think.  Then we can derive price and also it depends on every countrys FIAT worth.  If BTC only rises as money is worth less it has less meaning then actual growth in use

Good recovery in BTC upto a point which matches the old trend for most of 2017, roughly $4000.  Its a positive trend so its a ceiling but increasing also.  I would not judge this reaction to the top as negative, seems to be developing and its normal that a previous positive trend will now conversely cap gains.

On Kraken I see previous lows shown as 3400 to 3500 area.  That is a similar flat ceiling to mark progress against. 
On Huobi  I drew in a negative trend  to prices since the peak, there is also a shorter positive trend since the recent bottom.  21000 to maintain  positive action with 25759 as a target overhead should see any significant breakout from that negative trend

Very hard to decrypt. I'm waiting for one of the Russian speakers to come in and volunteer to translate. Google Translate seems horrible at dealing with casual Russian.

Indeed, it's great news -- but it's difficult to say how long it will take to play out. That chart looks like it could take a year. It makes one thing clear, though: buy low $2000s for the next major wave up.

I think he doesn't post here because he is a native Russian speaker and now he has a massive following in his own Russian community. (https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga)

Thanks for posting this, even though it is hard to decrypt.
"TLDR: Everything is just beginning." - This at least is some great news.

How come, he does not post here anymore?

Thanks for the clarification!

I don't think that's what he's saying. I don't think those arrows correspond to time, but rather the shape of the structure he expects to form. The Wave 3 that he draws is ~ 9 months long, so by Elliott Wave rules, the time taken by Wave 4 should be no more than ~18 months. However, there is no minimum time, so it could be much, much quicker than that. If the zig zag comes to fruition, then I would expect to enter the next Wave 5 (of the primary third) within several months.

Looks like bad news, we'll have to wait till 2019-2020 for the next bubble. Hopefully he'll be wrong.

Edit to add:


Yeah, odd name to choose, lucif.....

I remember from the days of his 2013 "ping pong" chart that yes, he is fond of the linear scale. Here it does not matter, at least to the EW count. After a magnificent wave 5 (as expected), he expects a return to the region of the previous 4th. That is quite a painful correction, given that we would normally expect a Wave 4 to be closer to a 38.2% retracement, rather than 61.8%.

Under normal circumstances, if the Wave 4 went that low, I would expect truncation of the next wave up. But this is Bitcoin, where wave 5s melt your face off.

Does he always work on a linear chart?

I'm wondering if I'm already on the verge of selling my soul to the devil, by listening to the words of a satanist.

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_2504

I think the maximum, what can be expected is another correction for the weekly ma20 (now at the level of 2,900 and is fairly cheerfully growing).
In this case it is very important not to overlap with the previous weekly maximum of $ 2980 from June 12 of this year. In the sense of not reaching this level with correction. Then the overall super-bullish picture will not spoil.

Bounced at 2980.4 on Bitfinex, bounced at 2972 on Stamp.
Almost too good to be true.  Where's the catch?

Thanks for the (I think correct) interpretation of the message from MasterLuc

Thank you oh so much.

If i had fiat i would buy in from this area 3 370 to 3 000 for a short term with the (exit) target at daily ma 20. The bounce will be right there.  (which is 4000-4100 usd)

I think it was a bad translation. My basic takeaway: Low $3000s (down to $3000) is buy support. Below this level (and below the weekly 20MA) would be a major overlap. As an aside, such an overlap would be bearish from the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory. If $3000 holds, the bullish picture remains ($40,000+ by 2019), and this would just be considered another healthy correction.

Unfortunately, this sets up a "darkest before dawn" scenario. Testing the weekly 20MA is healthy. Overlapping is not. In this case, both scenarios are a stone's throw away from one another. It's an extremely binary scenario. One sets off the run to $6000s, the other sets off a prolonged bear market.