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By the way, I am not sure about what you mean by "Todd", and I looked it up on google, which does not cause me much clarity... the meaning was "sly like a fox" or something like that?
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Sorry to have confused you ! I was just being a bit lighthearted. The quote , possibly a bit obscure, but I thought some traders would recognise it, is Louis Winthorpe (Dan Ackroyd) in Trading Places. I felt it fitted the mood.
Just to be sure, I do not trade myself now. I have done enough of that in my career, successfully, with other instruments than Crypto, but it takes a heavy psychological toll, and I don't want that any more. I sometimes quote technical info from a traders perspective just for illustration. BTW, I reckon about 40% of my career trades were mistakes and I let go of the need to be right some time ago, so I am certainly no prophet.
You must know I read your posts with interest and respect, because I recognise the amount of thought and research you put in. I will not knowingly snipe at anyone, so some of my apparent sarcasm will be accidental.
I believe that my skin is thick enough to accept a few snipes here and there. I certainly snipe at you enough, because sometimes you just make me a bit mad with your analysis, which I frequently conjecture that you are tending to error too much in terms of trying to attribute mature features onto bitcoin, and so sure, sometimes I cannot really pinpoint why I am getting so worked up about what I perceive to be your overly bearish analysis, and maybe I become even more worked up when you end up being correct in terms of where the BTC price ends up going.
But whatever, in the end, maybe even part of my "worked-up-ness" is a kind of exaggeration, too....and in the end, overall BTC's historical price performance (including where we are at currently) has been way the hell more bullish than even I could have imagined to be a realistic turn of events.
I mean largely my minimum goal, in terms of my BTC investment, was to hope that it performed equally or better than the average of my remaining portfolio (which historically had been around 5.5% average per year), so anything at or above 5.5% average per year would make me feel pretty damned good, and surely, I would even be prepared to receive less stellar BTC price performance because of the fact that I had largely been considering the BTC portion of my investment to be serving as an overall hedge to my remaining portfolio which I perceived to have been way too dollar correlated.
So, ultimately, even if I had screwed up quite a few times in various aspects of my approach to my BTC holdings (which I have a few times), the portion of my overall investment portfolio that is attributed to my BTC holdings has way the hell out performed any and all aspects of my various other investments, and I have no reason to really speculate that in essence, BTC is going to continue to largely outperform all of those other asset allocations, and I am not even trying to talk my book in that respect.
Before I got into bitcoin, I had thought that I was largely rich enough with my various traditional investments, at least in order to have had prepared myself for a reasonably comfortable life, even if some things kind of go to shit in various ways. The supplementation of my overall future preparations with BTC has been merely serving as icing on the cake to an already decently good set of preparations....
Sometimes, I may reflect on myself and my own situation, but frequently when I am participating in these various kinds of conversations about bitcoin, I am also trying to account for the various questions and concerns that either bitcoin newbies might have or any members who are in a much earlier state of their wealth and/or btc accumulation stage of life.
Accordingly, I do try to figure out and argue the case for the hypothetical newbie on a regular basis, and I tend to do that in the real world, too. When someone asks me about bitcoin, I frequently will tell them to get started right away, and I don't care about what the price is... Of course, one of my reservations is that I will have concerns for anyone who either does not otherwise have their finances in order or someone who perceives themself to have a decently short investment time horizon.. such as anything less than 4 or 5 years.
Personally, it seems to me that Majormax tends to describe (perhaps dramatically) bitcoin's upwards resistance points as much stronger than they are..
That's because, in an overall Bull trend the upper resistance points are of most importance to determining the rate of progress. It's just my humble opinion, and there are plenty of those on this forum !
Hm? Maybe this is part of where we differ in our attempts at analyzing where we have been and where we are potentially going.
Of course, both support and resistance is important to attempt to understand, and frequently we might come to differing perspectives when we emphasize one or the other.
You should be seeing some value in some of the charts that show various historical BTC bottoms, too, no? I mean, if you think about it, and if you look at it, looking at yearly BTC bottoms can be quite informative regarding BTC price direction, overall.
Of course, we frequently get blow off tops and even little baby blow off tops, and maybe part of the difference between our perspectives is that I consider those little blow off tops to be bullish, and you tend to consider them as bearish, even though both of us would conjecture that there has to be a correction at some point in time if the BTC price continues to go up in those kinds of crazy ass ways, that seems to happen on a fairly regular basis, and I have no real reason to speculate that crazy ass ups (and downs) are going to stop in bitcoin any time soon... it is almost guaranteed, so when it happens, from my perspective, there should be little to no need to get overly worked up about it... and perhaps I am wanting to see the glass as being half full... even though I hate to attribute spin motivations to myself... because I believe that I am merely attempting to describe the situation as factual even though my presentation is attempting to assert how wonderful bitcoin tends to be as an investment when we get crazy ass increases in price (even if just on paper for short periods of time), but then the bottoms keep going up too, so in the end, it seems to be less and less likely to be calling for crazy ass bottoms, and it seems to me that even you, majormax have kind of given up on your overly bullish sub $2k assertions... especially in the past couple of years (and yeah, just 2 months ago, we were getting damned close to revisiting lower lows, with that relatively extreme move to $3,850).
The disagreement with my own assertions gives me far more useful information that any passive agreement, same as any argument/debate. Thats why I might appear provocative. It's never personal !
Surely, even though you have explained your perspective so many times, I am not really going to proclaim to understand why, from my perspective, you seem so inclined to present and to argue various downside scenarios, I have not really tended to take any of your arguments and presentations personally because it kind of seems to me that you really believe what you are asserting, so you are trying to be genuine, rather than a beartroll. So, I don't tend to take your presentations/arguments personally even though frequently, I feel an inclination to either respond or to at least attempt to get to you clarify what you mean... and much of that can be a learning process for me, too
(whether I am learning about your position or my own thoughts about the subject matter). #nohomo.
