Topic: Analysis - page 12. (Read 941579 times)

Yeah, scramble to win or lose a few hundred dollars, git rekt, drama, blah blah blah.
A tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
HODL

There you have it, a classic BTC shakeout:



And that ladies and gentlemen, is why you don't stay leveraged long at key resistance levels after extended gains. We just saw some epic liquidations!

Now let's see if this quickly retraces and if bears start piling on shorts. Either (or both) will give us some indication of where sentiment is at, and whether we can expect more carnage.

After everything else. This!

Oh my!!!!

Good luck with that.  You will likely need it.

I don't doubt that there is a decent amount of incentive for profit taking at these levels; however, there still seems to be little to no convincing narrative suggesting that there is a need for down before up.

So, yeah, I agree that in less than 2 months, BTC prices have large gone from $3,850 to $10,074 without any meaningful correction, but I doubt that the purported resistance in the $10k to $14k territory is as strong as you are making it out to be, and surely it could take up to a year to break through $14k, but I am having a lot of doubts that it is even going to take that long.. and surely at some point soon, we are likely to have $10k as support rather than resistance... and not bad odds that such $10k as support happenings will take place within less than a year... we will see... we will see.


Gosh... hard to disagree with any of this....

By the way, this week's green candle has not closed, yet, and this week's would be the 8th one....

At this point, it seems quite likely to turn out green, since we only have about 30 hours before this week's candle closes and as long as the BTC price (talking bitstamp, here) stays above $8,930-ish for such closing time, this week's candle will be green.


If any newbie does not have any stake, at all, in bitcoin, then I always recommend getting a bit of a stake before playing around with predicting BTC price movements or the "waiting" game which could cause them to get fucked in chasing the train.. and we have seen that plenty of times in bitcoin.

Many of the more active members here already have a decent stake in bitcoin that has likely either been established a long time ago or has been slowly building such stake over a number of years, and are already considerably profitable in our already existing stake in bitcoin, so a wee lil drop down to sub $7k or even down to $4k is not going to cause a large number of us to either panic or to become unprofitable.... been there, done that (many times).   hahahahaaha


Seems to me that in bitcoin there is just a need to account for the s-curve exponential adoption aspect.  It is not a matter of blindness, but instead a matter of adequately accounting for that new asset dynamic aspect.. that can screw up a lot of people who try to treat bitcoin as if it were a mature asset, when it is not.


This part is well said, DvsA.

In all honesty, I don't have experience trading other markets that crypto, but I also find value in that by never being surprised by where price can go. I said recently price can now go to 14K or 7k, based on long-term price movements and I stick by that claim, as it may not go to either anytime soon as well.
Bitcoin will always be in a long-term bull trend above the 200 Week MA imo, so above 6K still macro bulllish I believe. Short-term, a break of 8K would be bearish, mid-term probably returning to 7K would make price action " neutral-bullish" (while still long-term a great btfd buying opportunity as would mean a 30% pull back has occurred,  even if 40% to 6k would be more likely to occur).

Buy blood, sell hopes. 

You obviously have some experience trading different markets. Safer trades are always far better long-term than 'needing to be right' trades. The key to buying capitulation is , how do you tell when the bull trend is no longer a bull (ie it's a bear trend) ?  In BTC that tends to be the primary act of faith : that there is always an underlying bull trend. If you have any doubt of that at all, buying the breakout is safer.

My thoughts exactly. Even with price moving 1K higher than my closed longs, I'm also expecting another shakeout as ia the nature of volitile crypto markets. Price is bullish but still facing strong resistance is the main concern right now. Reaching 10K makes me more curious about 8K support level that will now be a 20% pull-back if occurs, instead of being rejected by 9K area as I had previously expected (and got tapped out shorting with a fortunately tight stop loss). But either way, I also prefer buying into capitulation in bull trends than breakouts, as there's a lot more gain to be had for starters.
Buy red sell green.

Sensible move.  In that context, the next downwave could see sub 7000 again, so there is a lot of meat for shorters. However, shorting BTC is an exceptionally hazardous trade, so waiting for long entry is the safe bet.

Putting it from the other side of the coin, 10k is one of the worst possible levels to buy at this time . That remains so 'until its not' , at which point shorts get slaughtered, but I don't think we are there yet.

Closing longs, waiting for a new trading setup. Cash/stablecoins on exchanges, waiting to buy the dip. I don't like to short strong uptrends like this.

It partly just means not having my head in the clouds. Many people in my feed are already counting their millions, planning on lambos. They don't expect a crash at all. When the price dumps 10-20% in a day (as happened during those crashes mentioned above) a lot of them will panic and will eventually get shaken out.

I plan to be on the opposite side of that, buying the blood.

What does being ready mean in this context? short the falling price? or wait the dip to long it?

Bears don't look impressive yet, but it's possible we're slowly forming a multi-day top similar to August 2019 or February 2020.

Sentiment has turned strongly bullish with all the halving hype. Bitfinex longs outnumber shorts 4.66 to 1 now. Bitmex swaps are consistently holding above spot, the Fear & Greed index is showing "greed." I'm afraid to even predict a bearish outcome because going down feels impossible (a top indicator in and of itself).

I'm a big believer in maximum pain theory, and with sentiment this bullish, it's beginning to feel like the direction of maximum pain is down, not up.

I've closed my longs. Time to let the bulls and bears fight over $10K, and $10.5K. I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.

Yes.. That has been the case for 3-6 months. 10500 was rejected twice and now forms the toughest resistance point.

10000 is also in the process of testing, and if it is rejected, then the bearish scenario is intact for some  time.

10000 is technically the traders perfect shorting point, because there is another harder resistance just above. Whether it breaks or holds we will see.

New comment from masterluc -
May 8: In a case of new higher high (higher than 13 Feb 2020 ~ $10500) any bearish scenario will be invalidated.

Bitcoin did reach its ATH on 2017, it's on the course/schedule to follow the same path after the next halving in my opinion, but with maybe a difference of a few months.

Nice chart as usual. I draw the triangle a little differently, and I don't see us going to 10.5k, in fact, we got rejected by the downtrend at 9.5k, and the only way, for now, is a correction to the south, somewhere around 8.2k


 




Anyway, do you mind explaining what does your chart suggests anyway?


edited: exstasie's explanation on the dragonfly candles is correct and sufficient.

What are you saying? Dragonfly after downtrend = bullish reversal sign?

Only the first dragonfly you labelled is actually a dragonfly. The second and third have huge candle bodies and closed in the bottom half of the bar, so not even close.


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dragonfly-doji.asp

He seems to be correct on many of his predictions. I remember back in late 2018 he said that he was waiting for the 200 WMA to hold and provide support which it did. And even though he said the same thing on the 200 WMA holding again in March 2020, it had a huge wick which ended up in me having to hold a huge losing position.

I saw that it touched the 200WMA and moved away from it, so I bought at maybe $100 more, I think the 200WMA was like $5700 and I bought $5800 or so. Then to my surprise the stock market started to crash and we started to head toward  $5K then $4K and went to about $3.5K. Luckily I bought more at $4K and ended up with a decent average of $5K however it was very scary how fast it was going down that day. When the weekly candle finally closed on the 200WMA, it was pretty bullish so I kept the position open.

Reasonable. I can't bet on the bubble scenario myself, not yet. I think it's more likely we keep building out this consolidating range. The proportions and character of the sub-waves really supports the idea of a 2018-2021 triangle.



My trend line is closer to $11K, although in Elliott Wave, breaking that line isn't the determining factor anyway. The B-D line will form the upper bound of the triangle, and Wave D hasn't completed yet. We could even see some short-lived shenanigans above the $10.5K pivot and still come down to build out Wave E.

It was the 200-day SMA used in a daily chart, converted into a weekly chart. Yes, you're right! 200-week SMA. Hahaha.


After 10 years, Bitcoin would be enjoying 6 digits.