Topic: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! - page 2. (Read 30794 times)

Actually I'm pretty sure a flash of the boards in each MR will easily bring them to >500. However, overcoming heat would be a real big problem afaics.

No clue.

Any word on the X-link issue? There is a rumor they're making new revision board. Is it inline with using all grade A chips?

BFL's offer is +-10% of 500Gh/s.

That being said, new minirigs will be using all grade A chips (all 16 cores work on each chip) so each board should be doing 62-64Gh/s which adds up to over 500Gh/s.

Super jealous..

Is BFL providing additional hardware to make up the difference?  3x480 = 1.44 TH

Yes. Some run ~475Gh/s others at ~480Gh/s.

Yes he did and yes 480 GH!

giga, have you received eight 500GH units so far?  Do they all actually run ~480GH?

But you make the decision in the same way. First determine if one can get more Bitcoin by purchasing it off the exchanges than by purchasing mining equipment and mining with it. Would you buy a GPU to mine bitcoin with free electricity today? If not, how did you come to that conclusion?

A projection is determining the outcome based on a fixed set of criteria. A prediction is determining the outcome for all criteria.
Projections are useful because you can determine the set of input values required in order for something to be profitable.
For instance,the following statement is a projection: "If you get your product at 80M difficulty and difficulty adjusts up at an average rate of 9% over the next 8 months, you will not earn a return on your capital investment."
The following statement is a prediction: "You will not earn a return on your investment".

One can project the outcome of various rates of decay quite easily using calculators. One might project that a venture would be profitable at a 4% rate of decay but unprofitable at a higher rate over a 6 month period. This is useful information.  Of course BFL might go bankrupt tomorrow, KNC turns out to be a scam, Bitfury founders are killed and eaten by Edward Snowden (he is in Russia right now hunting them!), and ASICMiner's facility burns to the ground. Then anyone who already has an ASIC miner will mint money. But those are low probability events.
If you have to rely on a rise in exchange rates to bail you out, your mining is not profitable.

I am not talking about months ago (However, a lot of people did post 9 months ago that BFL would not deliver what they promised when they promised it.)
I am talking about right now. I didn't need to bold the "now" because the statement "Obviously it's a bad deal" is in the present tense. People ordering equipment from BFL now must rely on low probability events in order to be profitable. Worse, they did their math wrong in their profit projections and believe that they do not need to rely on low probability events.

We aren't talking about electricity costs but capital outlays.  All of this projection or whatever you want to call it is future prediction.  We don't know what the rate of decay will be when approaching the lower limits of fiat costs of chips or a sudden large drop in exchange rates.  You also forgot to bold the word "NOW" after "Obviously it's a bad deal" in my previous quote.  Everything is different with benefit of hindsight and that was my point in response to someone trying to compare deals form a year ago (BFL) vs 9 months ago (Avalon).

Each BTC you own gets the exact same benefit from the exchange rate as the BTC you produce with mining equipment. So as far as choosing whether or not to mine BTC or just take the money you would have spent on the electricity and purchase BTC is an easy question to answer. No Monday morning quarterbacking is required. People who are mining with CPUs (and soon GPUs) are better off taking the money paid for electricity spent mining and just purchase BTC off the exchanges. They would spend less for the same amount of BTC.

If you know roughly how many orders are in front of you, you can assume that before you get your equipment, some amount of hash power will have already been delivered and added to the network hash rate. For BFL, one might assume that they have at least 300GH/s of backlog in orders. So an order placed today with BFL will not be delivered until 300GH/s has been added to the hash rate. This dictates that a profit calculation for equipment ordered today should start at roughly 60 million difficulty and decay from there, instead of starting at 21 million (today's rate).

Nobody is trying to predict the future. What is going on are projections with certain assumptions. The discussion is about what assumptions are valid, and under what assumptions is the BFL equipment going to earn it's capital costs back.

I love the armchair general / Monday morning quarterback.  Obviously it's a bad deal now but you knew a year ago what the difficulty would be a year later.  Please feel free to enlighten us what the exact difficulty will be a year from now.  Not taking into account the exchange rate in a deflationary currency misses 1/2 the equation in this whole thing.  Buying mining gear is the closest thing to buying a btc bond with no counterparty risk.

Anyone NOT related to BFL recieved one of these yet?

It is amazing that we have to explain to people that having 2000 BTC is better than having less than 2000 BTC. But there are some seriously math challenged folks here. 

The going rate is now $17 per gh/s, if you have 500GH/S , is only worth less than $8500 or 85 bitcoin more or less.!!

Only 85 BTC

1 BTC is worth 1 BTC. Paying 2000 BTC to get less than 2000 BTC is a bad deal.

yawn

You should never judge the return on capital of a piece of mining equipment by the USD exchange rate. You should just use BTC in vs BTC out. Don't buy equipment that is going to give you less BTC than you can get just buying BTC instead of the equipment.
Operating costs of course need to do the conversion to local currency for USD, but those are a very small component at the moment.

30k USD invested earning 1k per day seems to be an ok deal.  Please don't start with but 2000btc is worth so much more now.  Everyone can hold as much or as little btc for long term speculation as they like.  Having said that no preorder should take a year to ship that's just silly.