It's good to see GRIN is taking a similar path to Ravencoin but (1) with a more interesting goal, (2) a better name, and (3) a good plan to integrate ASICs without making them enemies or allowing them to centralise the network.
For a price prediction, I'd look at Ravencoin's price and expect a similar movement but with a better long-term outlook.
You cant compare price I think. Because Ravencoin have max supply coins and Grin dont have. Crin is interesting for sure... but unlimited coin a little scares...
But Ravencoin won't hit the max supply for over 20 years... to be honest I'm bored to calculate it exactly with the halvings that will occur.
I calculated the today's monthly inflation of Ravencoin and Grin,
- Grincoin adds 2.201% more coins every month and it's about 13 days old.
- Ravencoin adds 0.0776% more coins every month and it's 13 months old.
In 1 year the stats will look like that,
- With 32,713,560 GRIN in circulation, there will be a 0.0792% monthly emission, that will be very similar to Ravencoin's 1 year.
- With 5,411,920,000 RVN in circulation, there will be a 0.0399% monthly emission.
But what I'm most interested to compare is the emission after RVN halves the rewards.
These will be the emission rates
4 years after the genesis block of both coins (January 2023 for GRIN and January 2022 for Ravencoin). Both chains will be at block 2,100,000 after 4 years.
- GRIN will have 126m coins and the steady block reward will be equal to 0.0206% monthly inflation at that time.
- RVN will have 10.5b coins but the block reward will be halved to 2500 thereafter. This means 0.0103% monthly inflation (after the halving).
It seems to me that for the first 4 years both coins have a very similar inflation pattern. By the end of 4 years both coins will be at a very low 0.02% / month.
However, after that Ravencoin will start halving (every 4 years) and the inflation rates of the two coins will start diverging until after maaaaany years RVN won't be able to halve any more.
The question is,
how important will this 0.01% difference be when it takes place in 4 years? How will all the other factors weight in (recognition and acceptance, usability, technical advancements, investors' liking)?